King Reyes
Jose Reyes: magnificent once again.
When Chipper Jones hits three dingers in a game, as he did on Monday, you're impressed but not shocked. When Jose Reyes does it, as he did tonight, you wonder whether the 23-year-old is starting to show the power potential the scouts talked about when he broke into the league.
Tonight's performance puts Reyes on pace for 20 homeruns on the year, along with a projected 70 steals. If it happens, it will be an achievement with few peers in the modern era, especially for a player this young.
Baseball’s records for steals in a single-season steals are dominated by the deadball era. Of the 100 best seasons in history, which comprise those players who stole 74 or more bases in a season, only 34 are in the modern era, and none occurred from 1916 to 1961. By contrast, 19 of the best single seasons in history happened in 1887 alone.
Those 34 modern-era seasons came from just 15 players, and we all know who ranks first. Rickey Henderson has seven seasons in the all-time top-100. Vince Coleman had five.
But very few of the steal leaders delivered power. Henderson is the exception: he had four seasons with 20+ HR and 50+ steals, his best being a 28-87 performance in 1986 when he was 27. Eric Davis exceeded the 20-20 mark six times, with peaks of 27-80 and 37-50 in the back-to-back ’86-’87 seasons for Cincinnati (aged 23-24). Lou Brock broke 20 HR once, combining it with 52 steals in 1967 (he was 28); not shabby at all, but his two peak steal seasons came with just 15 and 3 homeruns.
By contrast, Vince Coleman was all legs: his ‘career year’ totalled a mighty six homeruns – most years he hit just two or three, and in 600 at bats in 1986 nothing left the yard (career SLG: .345). His power performance is typical of his breed. Most of the elite basestealers, ancient or modern, simply didn't hit homeruns, including Maury Wils, Omar Moreno, Willie Wilson, Ron LeFlore, Brian Hunter and Rudy Law.
Others managed years where power joined speed outside of their peak-steal seasons, like Davey Lopes (his best was 28-44), Ron LeFlore (16-39) and Tim Raines (18-50). Fellow Expo Marquis Grissom had five seasons of 20+ HR, but mostly late in his career for other teams, long past the early ’90s days when he’d steal 70 in a season.
If Jose Reyes can make it to 74 steals and 20 homeruns, and it’s now clear those numbers are within his reach, he would join Henderson and Davis as the only players to break the 20-homerun barrier while delivering a top-100 all-time performance on the basepaths. And he would be the youngest ever to do so.
Powerless: modern-era steals leaders and their homerun production
Year | Player | HR | SB |
---|---|---|---|
1986 | Rickey Henderson | 28 | 87 |
1986 | Eric Davis | 27 | 80 |
1985 | Rickey Henderson | 24 | 80 |
1988 | Rickey Henderson | 17 | 93 |
1966 | Lou Brock | 15 | 74 |
1996 | Kenny Lofton | 14 | 75 |
1992 | Marquis Grissom | 14 | 78 |
1989 | Rickey Henderson | 12 | 77 |
1983 | Tim Raines | 11 | 90 |
1982 | Rickey Henderson | 10 | 130 |
1983 | Rickey Henderson | 9 | 108 |
1980 | Rickey Henderson | 9 | 100 |
1979 | Ron LeFlore | 9 | 78 |
1975 | Davey Lopes | 8 | 77 |
1979 | Omar Moreno | 8 | 77 |
1984 | Tim Raines | 8 | 75 |
1991 | Marquis Grissom | 6 | 76 |
1962 | Maury Wills | 6 | 104 |
1990 | Vince Coleman | 6 | 77 |
1979 | Willie Wilson | 6 | 83 |
1997 | Brian Hunter | 4 | 74 |
1980 | Ron LeFlore | 4 | 97 |
1982 | Tim Raines | 4 | 78 |
1980 | Dave Collins | 3 | 79 |
1974 | Lou Brock | 3 | 118 |
1983 | Rudy Law | 3 | 77 |
1987 | Vince Coleman | 3 | 109 |
1988 | Vince Coleman | 3 | 81 |
1980 | Willie Wilson | 3 | 79 |
1976 | Billy North | 2 | 75 |
1980 | Omar Moreno | 2 | 96 |
1985 | Vince Coleman | 1 | 110 |
1965 | Maury Wills | 0 | 94 |
1986 | Vince Coleman | 0 | 107 |
2 Comments:
Very few of the steal leaders delivered power.
True, but there are lots of players who do both, without leading in the steals category. Bobby and Barry Bonds come to mind, as do Canseco and Strawberry.
I am glad to see you mentioned Davis. I worshipped him as a youngster, and have always felt that he was an underappreciated player. His 1987 season was particularly impressive. You'll like this one, Avi. Of the 56 stolen base attempts he made, he only got caught 6 times. That is a 89% success rate, and well over the 75% threshold that makes stealing a base worthwhile.
Agreed. I deleted a paragraph in my draft that talked about Bonds I and II because I wanted to write a baseball post that didn't mention Barry. (There's a first time for everything.)
There's also a big difference between a season of 40 or 50 steals and one that is on the all-time leaders list. We know that steal-leaders are all stride and no stick, but pulling the numbers together showed just how empty their bats are.
There's another way I could've put it: Reyes can become only the third player to join the 20-70 club.
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