Sports Matters

Thoughts While Waiting for the Heisman Trophy Show...

2007-12-08T17:56:00.000-07:00

• Anyone who thinks Tim Tebow isn't winning in a landslide is kidding themselves. While there might be some doubt about whether Tebow is a clear-cut choice, everyone (save a few McFadden supporters) agree he should win. He's going to get a clear majority of the first place votes, and possibly even more than that.

• This year proves why the BCS is a joke. How does LSU jump Virginia Tech in the final Harris and Coaches polls despite winning less convincingly (against a weaker opponent than VT played) in their conference title game? Ignoring the fact that LSU should have been ahead of the Hokies in the first place on account of a head-to-head win, why aren't people asking voters to explain themselves. To me, this looks like the BCS voters trying to hand pick who plays in the title game.

• I don't think any school owes more to the BCS than LSU. In 2003, they were one of the three one loss teams to make the title game, where they beat an overrated Oklahoma team. The AP title went to one-loss USC team, who everyone that didn't vote in the Coaches poll agreed was the best team. Now, voters give them the nod over other two loss teams. Maybe they deserved it, playing in the tough SEC and having both of their losses come in overtime, but there's no way to say that objectively, which was the whole point of the BCS system.

• My pick for #2 in the country - Oklahoma. They played two bad halfs of football (the second half against Colorado and the first half against Texas Tech - and they were without their starting QB in that one), and aside from that defeated a tough Texas team and were the only team to beat Missouri all year.

• I'm at the point where I believe that if college football isn't going to go to a playoff, they should go back to the bowl system, since it at least didn't pretend to be objective. Since 2/3 of the BCS is human polls, it's effectively as subjective as the old system.

For fun, here's my guess at what the major bowls would look like if the tie-ins that existed 10 years ago were still in existence:

Rose Bowl (Pac-10 vs. Big 10): USC vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl (Big 12 vs. At-Large): Oklahoma vs. Georgia
Sugar Bowl (SEC vs. At-Large): LSU vs. Virginia Tech
Fiesta Bowl (2 At-Larges): West Virginia vs. Kansas

This would set up an interesting dynamic. If OSU won the Rose Bowl, they'd win. If they lost, I could see three different outcomes:

1. USC gets the bump for beating them.

2. LSU gets the bump as they'd still likely bet #2 in the polls entering New Year's Day.

3. Virginia Tech gets the nod for beating LSU. If they did, they would have avenged their two losses (Boston College and LSU) in the ACC title game and Sugar Bowl respectively.

I can't see a scenario in which Oklahoma, Georgia, WVU or Kansas would win.

It would certainly make for a fun New Year's Day, and would be no less subjective than the BCS system we're left with is.

Other scenario - how fun would a 16 team playoff be (11 conference champs plus 5 at-larges settled on through the computer polls)? To make it even more fun, you could make those 5 play at the mid-major conference champs in round one to increase the chances of an upset.

Here's what the first round matchups would be:

(1) Ohio State vs. (16) Troy
(2) LSU vs. (15) Central Michigan
(3) Virginia Tech vs. (14) Central Florida
(4) Oklahoma vs. (13) Florida
(5) USC vs. (12) Arizona State
(6) West Virginia vs. (!1) Kansas
(7) Hawaii vs. (10) Missouri
(8) BYU vs. (9) Georgia

Those would be some fun matchups.

Hog Wild

2007-11-24T12:04:00.000-07:00

Great game in Baton Rouge yesterday, as LSU became the latest championship contender to fall by the wayside after a triple overtime loss at the hands of the Arkansas Razorbacks.

For LSU, long considered the best team in the country, this game effectively ends their BCS chase (unless about 5 other teams lose as well). It may also precipitate the move of head coach Les Miles to the Michigan Wolverines. Not everyone would object to that. In the wake of this game and several other close calls, many are starting to questions Miles' coaching ability. Given the amount of talent he inherited at LSU, his failure to get them over the hump these past two years when he arguably had the most talented team in the game, a series of close calls against less talented teams this year, and a trend of questionable play calls and fourth down gambles have given credence to the thought that Miles has been more lucky than good with the Tigers. All this despite not losing a single game in regulation this year.

For Arkansas, this game may have saved coach Houston Nutt's job, and revived Darren McFadden's Heisman hopes in the wake of his dominant performance. Nutt has been rumored to be on the chopping block after failing to get his team over the hump during his decade-long tenure at Arkansas. Despite the lack of conference titles and national accolades, Nutt has recruited well, kept the team competitive, and done better than the Hogs had for a long time before he arrived. Yet, his inability to get them to compete regularly with the LSUs and Floridas of the world may mean the end of his tenure. I hope they keep him on. McFadden, the tailback who finished second in the Heisman voting last year, spent much of the game taking snaps in the shotgun and running a spread option offense. He ran for over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns, and threw for another touchdown after taking a snap. Despite being spied by one or two Tigers at all times, McFadden made the defense look silly most of the time he touched the ball.

A few other thoughts on this game:

• Who calls a swing pass behind the line of scrimmage on 4th and short? Les Miles, that's who. That was one of the worst calls I've seen all year, and only a missed tackle saved LSU's season (for a little while longer).

• When LSU came back, the main thought running through my head was "even if they do win, how are they going to compete with Kansas, Missouri or West Virginia". The Tigers never seemed to adjust to the Wild Hog spread option offense, and have been gashed the last three weeks for at least 200 yards on the ground. Against a strong running team, they're in serious trouble. That goes for the SEC Title game and whatever bowl game they end up in.

• LSU's Jacob Hester might become the most successful white running back since John Riggins. The kid can play, and I could see him getting picked on the first day of the 2008 NFL draft.

• If you're the Miami Dolphins, how do you not draft Darren McFadden if he enters the draft this spring? Yes, Ronnie Brown is one of the best young backs in the league, but after watching McFadden run the offense against LSU why not give him the option to do the same in the NFL? They could put him in at QB part of the time, and use a conventional offense the rest. The Dolphins also have wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr., whose speed would make him the perfect wing in this option offense. He could also take snaps in this formation since he played QB in high school. What's the downside for Miami here? Worst case scenario? It fizzles and they still have two outstanding running backs. Best case scenario? You have a multi-dimensional offense that pro teams aren't used to facing. I think this could work wonders.

• Felix Jones, the second string RB for Arkansas, is the real deal. He will be a big-time player in the NFL. He runs hard, isn't afraid to run at defenders, and he has great acceleration. He's flying under the radar for now, but one the offseason workouts and combines start, he's going to fly up the draft board.

Today's games to watch:

• Tennessee needs a win in Kentucky to make the SEC title game, and currently are holding a 14-7 lead over the Wildcats.

• West Virginia should be in the title game if they win out. They're in Morgantown today, but are in tough against the underrated UConn Huskies. Speaking of underrated, the Big East still doesn't get the respect it deserves. Written off after Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College bolted for the ACC, the conference survived a rough transition year but has thrived since with the resurgence of West Virginia and the emergence of programs such as Rutgers, Louisville, South Florida, Cincinnati and UConn. An interesting part of the BCS is that the computer polls have had Big East teams ranked first at times (Rutgers last year and South Florida this year), while the voters have ranked them lower. In last week's BCS poll, both man and machine agreed that West Virginia was third, but the other three Big East teams in the Top 25 (UConn, South Florida, Cincinnati) all scored higher in the computer polls than the Harris or the USA Today. Perceptions are often slow to catch up to reality, and I think the Big East is still suffering from the perception that it's the weakest BCS conference, and from the fact that most of their programs aren't traditional powers. That will change over the next couple of years if they can keep the quality of play up.

• Kansas and Missouri play in the biggest game of the week, with the winner almost a lock to become the new #1 team in the country - Kansas will certainly move from #2 to #1 with a win, while you have to think a victory by #4 Missouri will vault them ahead of #3 West Virginia and into the number one spot, at least in the human polls. This will happen even if the Mountaineers win today. The winner will be in tough against Oklahoma next week, especially with Sam Bradford back at QB for the Sooners.

• Ohio State will continue to sit and wait. A WVU loss should clinch them a spot in the BCS title game.

Other things to watch today:

• A banged-up Oregon team tries to hold off UCLA and keep their Pac-10 title hopes alive.

• Notre Dame travels to Stanford trying to avoid their 10th loss.

• The Iron Bowl between 'Bama and Auburn. Both teams are playing for respect and bragging rights.

• The Heisman watch focuses on West Virginia QB Pat White (against UConn) and Florida QB Tim Tebow (against Florida State) as they try and compete with McFadden's all-world performance.

And Then There Were Six: The BCS Fight To The Finish

2007-11-17T22:14:00.000-07:00

This hasn’t been the most spectacular college football season. There are no dominant teams, and we are without a clear-cut Heisman favorite. There are two undefeated teams – one plays in the WAC, and one hasn’t played a single team that received votes in the last AP Poll. The former team is hoping to sneak into a BCS bowl game, while the latter will play in the title game if they win out, but would probably enter that game a clear underdog.

The Season of the Upset claimed two more victims this week. #2 Oregon not only lost their Heisman hopeful in quarterback Dennis Dixon, but in falling to Arizona, they lost their hope of playing for a national title. They could still win the Pac-10 title and play in the Rose Bowl, but they need USC to beat Arizona State this week for that to happen. They almost certainly need a conference title to play in a BCS game, as they’re drawing power is severely diminished without a star quarterback to showcase.

#4 Oklahoma also lost their quarterback early then were upended by an unranked underdog. Unlike Oregon, the Sooners might get their quarterback back before the end of the season. They’ll need him, as they can still play for the Big 12 title if they upend Oklahoma State next week. Winning the Big 12 title game is their only path to the BCS, as they won’t hold much appeal as a 3-loss team.

One spot in the BCS is controlled by LSU, while the inside track for the other runs through the Big 12 North. Three teams sit on the outside looking in, hoping for the breaks to go their way.

Let’s take a look at the six teams that could still play for the BCS Title, and their paths to the title.

The Favorite
#1 LSU
Nov 23 – They host Arkansas, who at 7-4 is no pushover but will still be a heavy underdog. If they are to win, they need a great game from Heisman caliber running back Darren McFadden, and some big plays – either on offense or special teams – from backup running back Felix Jones. They’ll probably also need LSU themselves to play a poor game. Interesting dynamic in this game for the Razorbacks as coach Houston Nutt will probably be a lame duck by this point. Will that be a motivation or a distraction?

Dec 1 – They will play in the SEC Title game. Their opponent will likely be the Tennessee Volunteers, however if the Vols lose at Kentucky next week, the Georgia Bulldogs will win the SEC East. The Dawgs project to be a tougher opponent for the Tigers.

Either way, if LSU wins out, they will play for the title. If they don’t, their hopes are done.

The Big 12 Semi-Final
#3 Kansas (undefeated)
#5 Missouri (one loss)

Kansas and Missouri play this Saturday in Kansas City, with the winner moving on to play in the Big 12 title game, and then the BCS title game if they win there. Playing the role of spoiler from the South division will most likely be Oklahoma, themselves a title contender until an upset at Texas Tech this week, or Texas, if the Sooners lose next week against Oklahoma State.

Kansas is undefeated and hasn’t played Oklahoma, while Missouri’s one loss came against the Sooners in Norman. Neither the Jayhawks nor the Tigers have played Texas. Missouri’s title hopes are done if they lose this Saturday. If Kansas wins this Saturday then loses in the Big 12 title game, they might have a chance to hold on to the #2 spot in the BCS, but would need a lot of help (i.e. West Virginia, Arizona State and LSU losses) for that to happen.

But the good news for both Kansas and Missouri is that they should be finish no worse than #2 in the BCS if they win out. If neither team does, that opens the door for one of the other contenders.

The Longshots
#6 West Virginia
The plan:
Nov 24 – Beat UConn

Dec 1 – Beat Pitt

If they win out, they can probably hold off Ohio State, but it’s possible that Arizona State could leapfrog them if they win out.

#7 Ohio State
Nov 17 – Dec 1 – pray for the other contenders to lose, since they’re finished their regular season. They need LSU, West Virginia, and maybe even Arizona State and the Big 12 teams to trip up. Suffice to say they’re almost certainly playing in Pasadena, which is not a bad consolation prize at all.

#8 Arizona State
The plan:
Nov 22 – Beat USC
Dec 1 – Beat Arizona

They might also need Oregon to hold off Oregon State to keep their quality of opposition up (especially since Cal lost today). They currently sit at #4 in the computer poll, but 8th in both the Harris and the Coaches. A convincing win over USC could catapult them over Ohio State and maybe even West Virginia, especially if Mountaineers struggle down the stretch.

The odds are long, but an upset in the SEC might be all they need. Nonetheless, the best they can probably hope for still is a Rose Bowl matchup with Ohio State.

Smart money is on the LSU Tigers advancing to the title game, but this season has been full of upsets and surprises. Of the six remaining contenders, five have at least one game left. Don’t be surprised if at least 2 or 3 of them get upended in the next two weeks.

My prediction – LSU wins out. Kansas beats Missouri then loses the Big 12 title game, and WVU and Arizona State lose this week, setting up a title game with LSU and Ohio State, who sneaks in due to attrition above them in the polls. The Buckeyes will be the heavy underdog this year after being the heavy favorite in last year’s game, but this time they will walk away with the BCS championship. Why? Because it’s been that kind of season.

Follow That Link

2007-10-22T17:29:00.000-06:00

I followed Cosh's Dick Van Dyke Show clip through to it's source, which then took me to a post about World Series Songs, which then took me to a podcast of old baseball songs. Do yourself a favour and listen to it. The Vida Blue track is some hot shit.

Thin-Slicing Alex Rodriguez

2007-10-11T18:31:00.000-06:00

I actually wrote this in two minutes, which is probably apparent. But I like it as an intellectual exercise. It's unfiltered even by myself, and exposes true feelings and/or biases on a subject. Today's two-minute drill is on Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez.

Alex Rodriguez is the Yngwie Malmsteen of baseball. Masterful ability matched with absolutely zero soul. You can't deny that as a ball player he's amazing, maybe the greatest to ever play the game. But you might as well cheer for a robot. Nomar was the same way, actually. That's why Jeter has always been the most popular of the three: he's also a character. Plus, while I think that A-Rod gets unfairly treated in the playoff performance category (no one goes after Vladdy that way), the fact is he's never taken a team to a championship. And in both Seattle and New York, he's been on good teams.

The Fate of Alex Rodriguez

2007-10-09T23:54:00.000-06:00

The Toronto Blue Jays should sign Alex Rodriguez.

That’s my conclusion after a quick and dirty analysis based on Nate Silver’s work on Marginal Revenue. The numbers below show that if Alex Rodriguez had been a Blue Jay in 2007, the team would have:
1) generated $24.9 million in marginal revenue by going from 83 to 91 wins;
2) avoided paying Troy Glaus $10.8 million.

In simple terms, that means the Jays could have paid Rodriguez $35.7 million, come out even financially, and potentially made the playoffs.

By the same logic, the Mariners and Tigers could have afforded a salary in the neighbourhood of $30 million.

Coincidentally, that's just what Scott Boras is thinking. Candidly talking about Rodriguez exercising his right to opt out of his New York contract, which would pay $81 to 91 million over the next three years, Boras calls Rodriguez an “I.P.N. player” – one who delivers iconic, performance and network value – who could play to age 45. There are mutterings of $300 million ten year contracts.

If Boras can demonstrate that Rodriguez would have been worth $35 million to the Blue Jays in 2007, then he's got a shot at convincing an owner to pony up for a record-breaking long-term deal.

The owner will have to account for a future decline in production which will mean Rodriguez generates less revenue for his team. But that should be partially offset by inflation which will increase team revenues, and it's really a separate topic.

Today, I want to explain how Rodriguez could be worth so much already.

THE BACKGROUND
In 2006, Silver asked and answered the question “Is Alex Rodriguez Overpaid?” in Baseball Between the Numbers.

To come up with his answer, he developed a "marginal value" for each added win – the amount of revenue a team would generate for each additional win it recorded.

The key to his analysis was that depending on a team's win total, the revenue it could earn from one extra win was different. Going from 89 to 90 wins -- a move that greatly increases the chances of a playoff berth -- was worth close to $4.5 million. But going from win #81 to #82 was worth only $1 million.

So to identify the teams where Rodriguez could generate the most revenue, we need to start by looking in the wins column to find the teams that could gain the most valuable wins from his presence.

To answer that question, I pulled together three pieces of information in a table below:

Which teams were close to the playoffs but missed or nearly missed?
Thirteen teams had between 76 and 89 wins this year, ranging from Oakland to Philadelphia and San Diego. While there are teams above this win level with uncertainty about their future third base production (such as Boston with Mike Lowell), they almost certainly have cheaper ways to maintain or increase their win level and so I excluded them.

What did their existing third basemen contribute in 2007?
The chart below shows the players used in 2007, and in the “Lost WARP” column the wins above replacement that the team would be forgoing if Rodriguez was to replace the incumbent.

This is a proxy for what their future third base production might be, and with a couple of exceptions (Philly, Dodgers) I considered only the everyday players.

As a proxy it’s imperfect. Thirty-five year old Chipper Jones stands little or no chance of playing for ten more years, so Atlanta might consider that its future WARP from the position is less than the 8.7 Jones put up this year. On the other end, Minnesota might believe that anyone will be better than Nick Punto, who was barely above replacement level while eating up 8.7% of the Twins’ plate appearances.

At least one other number warrants explanation. Ryan Braun’s WARP is much lower than his batting production because of his atrocious defence.

Finally, I did not consider what synergies might be created by shifting players to other positions. This is a real consideration, as witnessed by New York’s earlier decision to move Rodriguez to third and keep Jeter as shortstop.

What would Rodriguez add?
The answer used below is the same for all teams – 11.1 wins above replacement level (his WARP1 in 2007). The column “A-Wins” shows how many wins the team would have had in 2007 had Rodriguez been the everyday first baseman. Obviously this does not address the question of his projected future production. Unless Scott Boras has some voodoo spells, Rodriguez will not be generating 11.1 wins above replacement for the next ten years.

What marginal revenue would be created by this substitution?
Possibly the most interesting result, this is the sum of the marginal revenues created by the team’s actual 2007 wins and its “A-Wins.” It’s different for each team based on where the sit on the curve.

And the winner is: Los Angeles, which could have created $26 million in marginal revenue this year if it had substituted Rodriguez’s production for the tag-team of Betemit, Abreu and Laroche. At 91 wins, they’d have been playoff bound.

The Blue Jays and Twins are not far behind, with the potential for $24.9 and $24.6 million in marginal revenues. The values have a great deal to do with the low production the teams got at the position this year – Glaus underwhelmed with his 3.1 WARP, and Punto was near replacement level – and their near perfect position on the curve at 83 and 79 wins. Five other teams could generate more than $20 million in marginal revenue.

One of the big market contenders – the Mets – would be burning money by signing Rodriguez. It’s because they have Wright, obviously. If the Mets found a way to keep both hitters (replacing Delgado at first base), the numbers would be quite different.

Team	07 Wins	Current 3B	Lost WARP	A-Wins	Marg Rev
LA Dodgers	82	Bet+Abr+Lar	(2.1)	91	$26.0
Toronto	83	Glaus	(3.1)	91	$24.9
Minnesota	79	Punto	(0.3)	90	$24.6
Philadelphia	89	Dobbs+Helms	(1.3)	99	$23.7
Detroit	88	Inge	(3.8)	95	$23.4
San Diego	89	Kouzmanoff	(1.7)	98	$22.8
Seattle	88	Beltre	(4.7)	94	$21.7
Milwaukee	83	Braun	(4.4)	90	$20.7
Oakland	76	Chavez	(1.9)	85	$9.3
Chicago Cubs	85	Ramirez	(7.7)	88	$8.9
St Louis	78	Rolen	(3.9)	85	$7.9
NY Mets	88	Wright	(11.2)	88	$4.1
Atlanta	84	Jones	(8.7)	86	$4.1

Eliminating the Incumbent
There is one last step: to eliminate the salary of the player that Rodriguez would substitute for. In theory, the maximum amount it would make sense to pay Rodriguez would be the sum of the marginal revenue he creates and the salary the team no longer has to pay its incumbent third baseman.

The same caveats apply: the 2007 salaries are an imperfect proxy for future salaries, and now we’re also assuming that teams could find other homes for their incumbent third baseman.

Given those assumptions, in 2007 the Blue Jays could have paid more than $35 million to Rodriguez and come out ahead financially. It’s a staggering sum – more than $10 million above his current average annual contract value. And again, it’s driven by the underproduction from Troy Glaus, who was paid $10.8 million this year. But mediocre production from high priced veterans is hardly a unique phenomenon.

Glaus might serve as a reminder to all General Managers considering the A-Rod sweepstakes that past production may not mirror future returns. Being on the hook for a four-year contract is one matter, but buying into a ten-year deal at a record-setting price is taking an extraordinary risk that the performance five or ten years out will justify the dollars. Still, if there’s any client of Boras’ who can get that deal, it’s Rodriguez.

Team	Marg Rev	Incumbent's Salary	MRev+IncSal
Toronto	$24.9	$10.8	$35.7
Seattle	$21.7	$11.5	$33.2
Detroit	$23.4	$4.9	$28.3
LA Dodgers	$26.0	$1.1	$27.1
Philadelphia	$23.7	$2.9	$26.6
Minnesota	$24.6	$1.8	$26.4
San Diego	$22.8	$0.4	$23.2
Milwaukee	$20.7	$0.4	$21.1
St Louis	$7.9	$12.0	$19.9
Oakland	$9.3	$9.0	$18.3
Chicago Cubs	$8.9	$8.0	$16.9
Atlanta	$4.1	$11.0	$15.1
NY Mets	$4.1	$1.0	$5.1

Margin Notes: The Marion Jones Letter

2007-10-06T17:45:00.000-06:00

Before appearing in U.S. federal court on Friday, sprinter Marion Jones penned a 1,700 word letter to family and friends....

Dear family and close friends, I hope this letter finds all of you well. I know some of you must be wondering where the pictures are that I so often attach to my emails. Unfortunately, this is a much different type of letter. I write this letter to all of you for a few reasons. The first is simply because I love you all. Some things will be happening in the next week that I want you all to know about from me FIRST. You deserve this because you have been there for me from the very beginning. You have supported me throughout the many struggles that I have had in my life and continue to do so to this day. You deserve to hear about Marion from Marion and not from the USA Today or CNN.

Jones' voice may be heard by her friends, but it's barely a whisper to the rest of us. A Google search produces nearly 3,000 news stories.

The second reason is because I finally want to shed much baggage that has been tearing me down for a long time. I want to share with you all my humanness. The fact that I have made mistakes in my life, made bad decisions, and have carried a great amount of pain and hurt throughout my life. I want you all to understand that I have constructed, what I thought, was this impenetrable wall, to protect me from hurtful and harmful people and things. In doing this I, unfortunately, have distanced myself from loved ones and made myself impossible, at times, to connect with. I want you all to know that I sincerely apologize for this. One day soon, I hope you will understand the reason for me having such behavior. I am not trying to justify it, but simply want you all to have a better understanding of why I have done certain things in my life. Having said this, I realize the need to be up front and honest with you about several things that have transpired in my life. I will not candy coat the following statements, as I have done this and tapped around the truth for too long.

Tapped around the truth is an understatement. She vigorously defended then-husband CJ Hunter when he tested positive during the Sydney Olympics, and stood by husband number two, Tim Montgomery, when he was banned following the BALCO investigation. And unlike many others, Jones also made repeated, unqualified denials about her own use of performance enhancing drugs (PEDs). And she even launched a defamation lawsuit against BALCO's Victor Conte, after he said in a telvision interview that Jones was a drug cheat. The suit was settled before trial.

As many of you know I am not one for a lot of small talk so I will get right to the crux of this letter. On October 5th, 2007, I plan to plead guilty to two counts of lying to federal agents. I will travel to New York on Friday, October 5th, where my mom will meet me, and return home to Austin on the following afternoon. I will now try and explain the details of all this to you all.

As she will shortly explain, the federal charges are only tenuously connected to the PEDs. Like Martha Stewart, Jones has been accused of lying to federal agents. The contents of the interview in which she lied are irrelevant. Count me as a skeptic when it comes to this technique of law enforcement (it's in the same category as charging a suspect with conspiracy, rather than the underlying crime, or inventing novel extensions of securities laws to capture otherwise legal behaviour).

In 1999, my track coach Trevor Graham provided me with some nutritional supplements. There is one in particular that he called "flaxseed oil." He advised me to take this supplement by placing a few drops under my tongue and then swallow. He told me that it was necessary to add this to my diet so that I could be in peak running shape. I, unfortunately, never asked him any questions about it. I trusted him and never thought for one second that he would jeopardize my career, nor his own. He told me to administer it by placing a few drops under my tongue for a few seconds and then to swallow. He supplied me this for the 1999 and 2000 seasons. In 2001, I noticed a change in how my body felt, how I was able to recover and my strength level. I felt generally weaker in my entire training routine. At that time I attributed the noticeable change to being burnt out from the Olympics, etc. It was not until after I left Trevor at the end of 2002 that I began to wonder to my self whether or not Trevor had given me something to enhance my performance. Looking back in hindsight, red flags should have been raised in my head when he told me not to tell anyone about our workouts or supplementation program. At that time my rationale was, well it makes sense not to give out any information about what we do, why give my competitors any edge.

There's an interesting consistency between the stories told by BALCO clients. The drug -- THG -- was administered orally, and the recipients were apparently told it was flaxseed oil or 'the clear.' Of course, Jones is not just asking us to believe that she was unaware the "flaxseed oil" was really a steroid -- she's also asking us to extend our suspension of disbelief further: that she never asked more probing questions, that the secrecy demand didn't raise her suspicions, that she only noticed the impact of the drug after she stopped taking it, and that her marriages to two proven steroid users were a coincidence. In her statement to the court on Friday, she admitted that she used THG from September 2000 until July 2001, but that it was only "By November 2003, I realized that what Graham had given to me was a performance enhancing drug."

In 2003, I was interviewed by federal agents regarding the Balco scandal. For those of you that do not know, Balco was the name of a company that provided nutritional supplements and steroids to athletes through its owner Victor Conte. You can just Google it, if you need further explanation. In that interview, agents asked me several questions regarding my involvement, if any, with Balco or Victor Conte. There are two questions, in particular, that have gotten me into part of the trouble that I am involved in today. Agents asked me if I had ever seen this substance called the "clear.", and they then showed it to me. Up to this point I had heard about this steroid called the "clear," but had never seen it, or so I thought. It was the brain child of Victor Conte. When shown the substance I recognized it immediately as the supplement that Trevor Graham had given me and had referred to as "flaxseed oil," and knew at that moment that I had taken it for nearly 2 years. I panicked and told the agents that I had never seen the substance before. This was a lie. I indeed had seen it before but was introduced to it under a different name.

This passage contains my favourite line -- "You can just Google it," -- as well as the one I find most believable: "I panicked." This is Jones at her most sympathetic. Is there anyone who wouldn't panic when being interviewed by federal agents? Especially knowing that any slip-up, whether intentional or unintentional, might later be prosecuted?

The agents concluded the interview by asking me if I had ever taken a performance enhancing drug, or PED, as I will refer to it the rest of the letter. I told them that I had never taken a PED in my career. Prior to this interview, before seeing the "clear" I could have honestly said and did, that I never knowingly took any banned substances. But once they showed me the "clear" and told me that it was indeed a PED, I knew that what I had taken and been given was a banned substance and I lied about it. I lied for a few reasons. I lied because I panicked. I lied to protect my coach at the time. I lied to protect all that I had worked so very hard for in my life and career. And lastly, I lied to protect myself. It was an incredibly stupid thing to do. I made the decision to break the law and have to take full responsibly for doing so. All of this was after my attorneys had specifically told me several times the need to be totally truthful with the agents. That will be the first count that I will plead guilty to on Friday. As you can all imagine, the story will be front page news, and I want you all, as I have stated in the beginning of this letter, to have heard the truth from me.

Jones veers from her most to least believable and back again in an instant. "I lied" and "I'm sorry" are two of the most powerful phrases in our language. They are rarely used, and even when used are often qualified to the point of meaninglessness ("I'm sorry if you feel hurt" being the worst offender). Here Jones repeats the admission "I lied" and she tells us her motivation -- to protect herself, her reputation and those close to her, and because she panicked. This would be more effective if it wasn't again paired with the claim that it was only at that moment, in the interview, that she realized the 'flaxseed oil' was the same as 'the clear' and was therefore a steroid.

Regarding the second count of lying to a federal agent….At the beginning of 2006 I met with prosecutors in New York regarding a check fraud and check counterfeiting scheme they had been investigating. They had called me in because a $25,000.00 check had been deposited into my account in 2005, and apparently it was one of the counterfeit checks. I was asked if I knew anything about the check. I told the prosecutors no. This was a lie! The facts are these. Tim Montgomery, Monty's biological father, gave me the check in 2005 and told me that it was from the sale of a refurbished vehicle that he owned and it would be towards partial repayment of $50,000.00 which I loaned him for attorney expenses back in 2004. The government believes that I knew about the check fraud scheme from the beginning and that I knew that the check was counterfeit. This is not the case.

Once again I panicked. I lied because I wanted to protect Monty's biological father. Although my relationship had ended, I did not want to be the one responsible for putting him in jail or getting him in trouble. And lastly, I wanted to protect myself. I did not want my name associated with this mess. I wanted to stay as far away from it as possible. And so I lied. I am not giving excuses for what I have done. I just want you to understand, even if it is only slightly, my bizarre reasoning behind lying to a federal agent, for the second time.

Her reasons are bizarre and so are the circumstances. What a nightmare Jones' life has become. News accounts suggest she's jobless, out of money, about to be stripped of her Olympic medals and up for a jail sentence following the guilty plea. According to the Star, "The $2.5 million dream house in Chapel Hill, N.C., is gone. So is the house Jones bought for her mother.In court papers, Jones claims to have 'total liquid assets throughout the world of about $2,000.'" And now she's tied up with an ex-husband's check kiting scheme.

This brings us to the present. Both the Northern District of California and the Southern District of New York cases will be presided over by one Judge in New York. They call this a global resolution. The sentencing will be held in approximately 3 months, or sometime at the beginning of January. The sentencing guideline for an offense such as this is 0-6 months in jail. Although it is extremely hard to fathom being away from my family for any length of time, I have to put the rest in God's hands and pray that this horrible chapter in my life, be resolved as soon as possible. I wanted you to know this and not be surprised when you pick up the paper or turn on the computer within the next week. You deserve more than that.

The next several months will be very difficult for me and my family, and all of you as well. With all of this happening though I want you to know that I feel a huge relief already being lifted as I will finally be able to tell the truth, as hard as it might be . I want to apologize to you all for all of this. I am sorry for putting you all through this after you have been there for me through everything. I want to apologize to you, in advance, for the questions that you will be asked about me and about your relationships with me. And lastly, I am sorry for disappointing you all, in so many ways. My intent was never to hurt any of you.

I hope that one day I will be able to share with you, and the world, my struggles with certain things in my life. And in addition use my story to help direct, motivate, and possibly even inspire young people to make better decisions in their lives. Please keep me in your prayers. Love, Marion

Prosecutors have asked for a sentence of 6 months. Peter Ueberroth has called for her to turn in the medals before they're taken away. And again, her use of an unqualified "I'm sorry" is powerful. But I can only assume her hope to one day share her "struggles" with us means a book deal is on the way.

One of the claims made by those who want PED using athletes to come forward and confess is that confession will bring absolution and understanding. 'If only they'd tell the truth, we'd forgive them,' the thinking goes.

There is little reason to believe this claim. The head of the IAAF has called Jones "one of the biggest frauds in sporting history." Fellow competitors have declared themselves pleased, and the head of US track and field, no doubt thinking of Jones' colleagues on the relay team, has said that "her fellow competitors, teammates and the sport are paying the price for her mistakes."

In a curious turn, Dick Pound has declared that it will be "disagreeable" to see Jones stripped of her medals -- but only because suspended doper Katerina Thanou will be one of the beneficiaries.

Some have been kind. UNC coach Sylvia Hatchell has said that "We love her, we care about her, we support her and we will do whatever we can do to help," and UNC track coach Dennis Craddock offered that "Marion is a good person, but she made some bad decisions." Her former coach Steve Riddick said that "I have my own cross to bear, and I wish I could bear her cross, too."

The most unfortunate defence has been from Victor Conte. "Those who have made the majority of the money from Olympic as well as professional sport must also take responsibility for the drug culture that exists...In a sense, Marion Jones is a victim of a corrupt system that has existed for decades." Given that Conte played a large part in that system, and made plenty of money doing so, his condemnations are disingenuous.

Conte did say one thing that I could agree with, and perhaps that's where I'll close: "Marion is no different than many others who have done the same but were able to easily beat the inept anti-doping system in place."

Second Best: National League West Edition

2007-10-02T20:48:00.000-06:00

Building on the earlier run down of the American League's, and in the spirit of not biting off more than I can chew, here's my take on the second best batter on each team in the N.L. West. As before, the goal is to see who has elite-level depth, and what great performances are hiding in the shadows.

Arizona: Orlando Hudson
VORP: 32.8
Line: .294/.376/.441
Sigh. This is a sad story, and a big reason that the odds are in favour of the Cubs in the first round of the playoffs. The All Star's season came to an end at the start of September when he tore a ligament in his thumb sliding into third base. It makes his ranking all the more impressive -- he might have finished ahead of Eric Byrnes (35.2) absent the collision. Instead, the Diamondbacks are left with the Alberto & Augie combination. Alberto Callaspo is particularly disastrous: in just 156 plate appearances he managed an OPS of .536 and a VORP of -10.8. The other notable fact is that Hudson is usually seen first as a defensive specialist. This ranking reminds us that he was a key driver for the D'backs' run production, albeit on a team that scored only 712 runs. In fact, Hudson's run production has been at or above league average since coming to desert, and the team is paying just $3.9 million a year for his services.

Colorado: Todd Helton
VORP: 51.9
Line: .320/.434/.494
Forget the mystery plate tag. This is why the Rockies are in the playoffs: they have elite-level depth. Towering above Helton this year is outfielder Matt Holliday who has an NL West-leading 75 VORP. Backing them up are the three Rockies' hitters with VORPs over 30 (Tulowitzki, Hawpe and Atkins). The young hitters bring some much-needed financial discipline to the club, who are using 30% of their payroll for Helton. The Rockies paid him $16.6 million this year and are on the hook for a minimum $73.5 million through 2011 assuming they choose not to exercise a fantastical $23 million option for the 2012 season when he'll be 39. While Helton is still producing for the club, it's no longer in the same way they imagined. In the four seasons before Helton signed his nine-year deal he hit an average of 39 homeruns a year; in the last three seasons he's averaged just 17. And he's grown a goatee. "I have my reasons for having it on there," he said this pre-season. In my books, that means he's got something to hide.

San Diego: Khalil Greene
VORP: 23.0
Line: .254/.291/.468
This wasn't the answer I wanted -- I was hoping for an old favourite of mine, Brian Giles. Instead, I've got the mopiest looking Padre of them all. At least he's a former Golden Spikes winner, and the Padres homerun leader at the position (it doesn't take much). Greene is the shortstop for one of the cheapest infields in baseball. It's remarkable. Josh Bard (C - $1.05M), Adrian Gonzalez (1B - $500K), Marcus Giles (2B - $3.25M), Kevin Kouzmanoff(3B - $380K), and Greene ($2.25 M) combine to make just $7 million, while delivering a VORP of 94.2 (yes, this subtracts Giles' negative contribution).

Los Angeles: Jeff Kent
VORP: 40.3
Line: .302/.375/.500
Does Kent lack leadership and have a tough time dealing with black players? Don't know. But he can still slug the ball. This year Kent is in the shadow of breakout star Russell Martin, and the troublesome Loney has got his back. He hit 20 homeruns -- quite something for a 39-year-old second baseman -- and recorded his 16th straight year of above-average adjusted OPS. The Dodgers have a $9 million option on Kent for next year, and you can be they're going to exercise it.

San Francisco: Randy Winn
VORP: 26.4
Line: .300/.353/.445
It's a very, very bad sign when this is your second-best. Winn's production was worth less than half of the Giant's leading slugger, Barry Bonds (55.2 VORP). And with Bonds not invited back to San Francisco, the club's going to lose a lot of baseball games next year. Winn will make $16 million over the next two years to watch it happen -- and he may well be the club's batting leader. Who'd be second best to Winn? Bengie the Molina.

Final Thoughts. The NL West's second bests are giants and dwarves. The veterans Helton and Kent are far ahead of the pack, and part of teams with considerable high-end depth. Hudson is in the middle, and will hopefully see Arizona's youngsters blossom around him in future seasons. As for Winn and Greene, there is not much nice to be said. San Francisco was a one-man show and the show's leaving town. San Diego was a team whose success was driven by pitching, not batting.

NL West Second Best
51.9 Todd Helton (1B)
40.3 Jeff Kent (2B)
32.8 Orlando Hudson (2B)
26.4 Randy Winn (OF)
23.0 Khalil Greene (SS)

Where's the Hand?

2007-10-01T22:57:00.000-06:00

Is it just me or did the tiebreaker between San Diego and Colorado go from brilliant to suck the moment umpire Tim McClelland made his delayed call at home plate?

Up until that point, the 13th inning was a masterpiece. Brian Giles drew a five-pitch walk at the top of the inning, and was brought home by Scott Hairston's homer to left centre two pitches later. With a two run lead and all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman taking the mound, the Padres looked set to meet the Phillies in the playoffs.

Recent history suggested that things might be more complicated. On Saturday, the Padres were one strike away from the playoffs when Tony Gwynn Jr hit a game-tying triple off Hoffman. Tonight, he was immediately in trouble.

On his sixth pitch, Kaz Matsui stroked a double to centre. Matsui had all of 32 extra base hits and a .396 slugging percentage this year, but tonight was his moment. Seven pitches later, rookie of the year candidate Troy Tulowitzki doubled himself, scoring Matsui and bringing the game within one. On the next pitch, Matt Holliday sent the ball to deep right and landed on third with a triple. The game was tied.

At this point I thought the game was a masterpiece. While extra innings had dragged after Heath Bell left the mound (the stout right hander had pitched a thrilling 2 2/3 innings with 5 strikeouts), the back-and-forth 13th had the crowd on its feet. An intentional walk to Todd Helton put runners a the corners with none out, and it seemed clear that the Rockies were about to win the game.

That's when things went awry. Jamey Carroll had been hitting for Garrett Atkins since the he came in as a runner in the 7th. Still there in the 13th, he lined the ball into Brian Giles' territory in the outfield. The play at the plate was closer than anyone expected: with Michael Barrett blocking the plate, Holliday went in face-first wide to the right. The ball landed at Barrett's feet and slipped away, but umpire McClelland hesitated. Then his arms swept wide in as he called Holliday safe and ended the game.

The television replays were all too brief, and from too few angles. What we could see appeared to show Holliday's hand sliding wide of the base -- and he failed to go back to attempt to touch the bag. By the time Barrett found the ball and tagged him, the call had been made. There was no appeal to the crew chief.

The wire reports give McClelland the benefit of the doubt: "replays were inconclusive on whether Holliday touched the plate with his left hand or was blocked by Barrett's left foot."

Even more gracious is Padres manager Bud Black: “It looked to me like he did get it."

Other are less sure: "He missed the tag!" say the Sons of Steve Garvey. "Questionable," is the verdict here. This fellow wants to see instant replays. And the primates are chiming in from all points of view.

It's not the greatest controversy we've ever seen in a baseball game, but it is disappointing. Holliday looked out to me. Colorado defenders argue that it's payback for a Garret Atkins double that should have been called a homerun (the same double that brought Carroll in as a pinch-runner), or that Colorado would have won the game anyways. These arguments are wholly unsatisfying.

Beyond the dispute, which will barely be remembered days from now, there's one image that remains from tonight's contest. It's of a dejected Trevor Hoffman leaving the mound.

“I'm having a hard time expressing myself right now,” he said after the game. “I wish I could, but I can't after what happened tonight.”

Second Best: American League Edition

2007-09-26T21:05:00.000-06:00

Alex Rodriguez has locked up the American League MVP, with Magglio Ordonez and the Tigers falling a bit short. Surveying baseball, it's easy to spot the best players on each team. As fast as you say the words Boston-Seattle-Anaheim a baseball fan will respond Ortiz-Ichiro-Vlad.

Today, I'm not interested in the best. I'd like to explore the batters who are second best. It's not quite the same as looking for stars & scrubs teams, but it's a great way to see who has depth at the top, and what great performances are hiding in the shadows.

Baltimore: Miguel Tejada
VORP: 33.4
Line: .301/.360/.453
When Billy Beane let go of Miguel Tejada at the end of 2003, it was taken as more evidence that mid-market teams couldn't compete with the big spenders. But would Tejada's deal have been worth it, even if the A's had the money? Unlikely. Tejada's the highest paid Oriole this year ($12 M), and is slated to make $13 million in 2008 and 2009. That's more money in one season than he made in his 5 1/2 seasons with Oakland. Tejada's production took a big jump in his first year with the Orioles, up to a WARP of 13.0, and he delivered 21 wins above replacement over the next two years. This year, he's down to 5.6, and it doesn't look to get much better from here. Will Tejada be the Orioles' #2 next year? Unlikely. Nick Markakis (salary: $400 K) is on his tail with a VORP of 31.7.

Boston: Mike Lowell
VORP: 44.8
Line: .324/.380/.500
I didn't want to bring Mike Lowell's name up again, but I have no choice. Boston fans are wishing that Manny was being Manny this year. He hasn't been. Instead, trusty Mike Lowell has filled the gap with, dare I say it, the best year of his career. Note that I didn't say 'career year.' That usually implies some kind of outlier performance, and Lowell's 9.4 VORP currently stands just a hair above his previous bests (a 9.3 WARP in 2004, and a 9.2 WARP in 2002). Will Lowell do this again? Despite his great glovework, I've guessed 'no', and already suggested that Boston consider selling high in the off-season.

Chicago: Paul Konerko
VORP: 24.3
Line: .259/.350/.484
Shudder. It's no wonder the White Sox are 20-games under .500 - they're a pure stars-and-scrubs team, with one star (Thome), one side-kick (Konerko) and then a cast who look like they'd fit in well on a Bill Wirtz hockey team. So Konerko's not really to blame. He's one of four first basemen in the AL who are decidedly mid-rank (Garko, Kotchman, and Teixera are the others). Youkilis and Morneau stand a shade above them, while this year's freakish performance by Carlos Pena (a whopping 60.5 VORP) is in the stratosphere. It's a respectable showing by Konerko, but nothing more.

Cleveland: Grady Sizemore
VORP: 50.5
Line: .275/.388/.462
There are two stars on the division winning Cleveland Indians -- Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore -- but only one has a porn star name. Sizemore is actually slightly behind his production from last year, but it's still exceptional. By the end of his age-24 season he'll have delivered 28.6 wins above replacement using a combination of power and speed. It's why hall-of-famer Duke Snider is ranked as the top comparable player to this point in his career. Missing in action for Cleveland is Travis Hafner, whose production has fallen off after three very good seasons.

Detroit: Curtis Granderson
VORP: 63.9
Line: .301/.358/.554
Granderson may not be as young as you think. Like Sizemore, he's in his fourth year of major league play, and he combines speed and power, but this is already his age-26 season. It's been a good one -- one of the best on this list, and miles above even his 90th percentile projection from the Baseball Prospectus folks (he's delivered 12.2 wins above replacement, verus a 90th percentile projection of 8.7). He's also been surrounded by a remarkably talented lineup -- Ordonez rivalled A-Rod for much of the season, and Polanco, Guillen and Sheffield all have VORPs north of 30. Were it not for the injury to Sheffield, and too many at-bats going to Sean Casey, they might have made the playoffs.

Kansas City: David Dejesus
VORP: 13.8
Line: .264/.354/.379
What a juxtaposition. We go from talking about one of the deepest lineups -- Detroit's -- to one of the worst. Forget this talk of number two's, let's first discuss the 'star' of this team. It's Mark Grudzielanek, with a VORP of 16.2. There are other teams led by star second basemen, but he's no Chase Utley. I'm actually quite fond of Dejesus (disclosure: I drafted him on both my fantasy teams this year), and think he's under-rated. Unfortunately, this is not the year to be arguing his case. There is an interesting split going on behind the line, though. Dejesus hit .285/.365/.418 before the break, but dropped to .232/.339/.321 afterwards (he did the same thing in 2005, but not to this extent). He's still scored 100 runs (66 before the break), but had to chew through 11.5% of the team's plate appearances to do it. Beware the counting stats.

L.A. Anaheim: Chone Figgins
VORP: 38.6
Line: .339/.398/443
Figgins is the best of three good infielder batters -- Cabrera and Kotchman -- who pad out the offensive prowess of Vladimir Guerrero (he who must drive in all runs). It's universally agreed that Chone's leading attribute is 'position versatility,' but he also gets it done at the plate, averaging 8.4 wins above replacement over the past five years. That steady production has been important part of Anaheim's success, as has his value -- over those five years, the Angels have paid Figgins just $6.7 million (more than half of which was for this year). Don't think I'm too high on Bill Stoneman, though, because he needs a lot of value contracts to offset the albatross that is Garret Anderson, who's still owed a minimum $15 million next year assuming the Angels choose not to exercise their $14 million option for the 2009 season.

Minnesota: Justin Morneau
VORP: 30.3
Line: .273/.346/.495
The more things change, the more they stay the same. This is the second year running that Morneau has been the Twins' number-two man. Just don't tell the Baseball Writers Association members, who elected Morneau last year's league MVP. That's old news. What's new this year is that Minnesota's top batter has been free-agent-to-be Torii Hunter. (Memo to GMs: Hunter's WARP of 8.0 is fully 17% higher than last year's performance, and 66% higher than his average performance from 2003 to 2005. Is he a late bloomer reaching a new level of performance, or a contract year fluke on the wrong side of 30? You decide!) I should really give Morneau his due: he's put up two good seasons in a row, and is heading into his age-27 year next year. He could easily be the Twins' number one next year.

New York: Jorge Posada
VORP: 71.0
Line: .334/.423/.545
Give me a BWAA ballot, and I just might cast my MVP vote for 35-year-old Jorge Posada. Yes, Alex Rodriguez has put up an extraordinary season (earlier this week Jim Baker called it the third-best season by a Yankee in the expansion era), but Posada accomplished something even more extraordinary -- the fourth-best season for any catcher since 1959 (again, credit to Baker for this perspective). It's par for the course for Posada, whose production and knees have remained solid throughout his 30s.

Oakland: Nick Swisher
VORP: 34.5
Line: .265/.388/.464
A perfectly respectable year for Swisher, who's batted in the middle of an Oakland lineup decimated by injuries (strictly speaking, I suppose Oakland's losses exceed decimation), and improved on his 2006 totals. Next year, he'll begin the move into peak production territory. This is another case, however, where the more interesting story is at the top. For who is Oakland's most productive batter? Jack Cust. Before heaping effusive praise on Billy Beane, let's remember that this is Cust's second stint in the Oakland organization, and that if they'd seen this coming they wouldn't have let him go as a free agent at the end of 2005.

Seattle: Adrian Beltre
VORP: 32.3
Line: .281/.326/.496
Like Dejesus, I have to confess a fondness for Beltre, who was my mid-round value pick to fill third base in the fantasy baseball drafts. While that's been good news for me, it's the real-life implications that concern the Seattle organization -- and the Mariners have to be happy with this result. Rather than repeat his wobbly 2005 season, which saw his WARP production drop more than 50% from the previous (flukish) season, Beltre has repeated his good 2006 season and settled into a respectable place among American League third basemen. He actually ranks 4th among AL third baggers, and is a long way above players like Glaus, Blalock, Blake and Mora. One footnote: a blazing second-half from Raul Ibanez almost saw him catch Beltre for the Mariners' number-two slot.

Tampa Bay: BJ Upton
VORP: 47.5
Line: .302/.389/.516
When is a player not as good as his line? When he plays in Tampa Bay. No, that's not true in any statistical sense, just when it comes to media attention. Here we have a 22-year-old who's delivered more than 8 wins above replacement in his first full season, been a league-average fielder in the toughest outfield role, and who's 20-20. Were it not for Carlos Pena's season, he'd be the Devil Rays #1, ahead of Carl Crawford.

Texas: Ian Kinsler
VORP: 29.8
Line: .268/.359/.450
Texas is led by its infield, but this year they haven't been that remarkable. Michael Young (35.7), Ian Kinsler 939.8) and Mark Teixeira (26.3) create a lot of value, but absent a more functional outfield, or a rotation that can break through the 5.00 ERA line, they're not going to win many games. Kinsler is 25 this year, and still projects well. He's right around the mean PECOTA predicted for this year, and should deliver more than 5 wins better than replacement in each of the coming years, with a good chance to break through to a higher level of performance. For now, he's a respectable number two. But this team needs a better number one.

Toronto: Frank Thomas
VORP: 32.5
Line: .276/.378/.483
Oakland took the big risk last year, and won the reward. The Blue Jays took the lesser risk, and wound up with the bill. Thomas has done well as a DH -- even though you suspect the fans had visions of 40 homeruns in their heads. But let's also be realistic. While the Jays paid him only $1 million this year, they owe him $8 million in 2008 and are now almost certain to pay him $10 million in 2009 (that option vests if Thomas has 1,000 plate appearances over '07-'08, and Thomas will top 600 this year alone). Will Thomas continue to be number-two? Despite the money, the Jays hope not. Their best batter this year has been Alex Rios. Next year, they'd rather see Vernon Wells and Rios at the top.

Will Todd Helton Talk?

2007-09-24T21:49:00.000-06:00

“The name that Winters called Milton, had he said it to me, I would have rushed him. No one is going to take that. In my 26 years of baseball, that was the most disconcerting conversation I have heard from an umpire to a player. I was appalled. That's why the game stopped.” (San Diegro Padres first-base coach Bobby Meacham.)

We all want to know what Mike Winters said, especially since there are obvious hints that it may have had racial overtones. But the only way we're going to find out is if Todd Helton talks. In theory, a consistent story from Bradley and Meacham would trump Winters' account in a he-said she-said dispute. But the reality is that Helton's the only observer who can be called objective. Will he tell the MLB investigators the truth? And will the rest of us find out?

Even an objective, well-intentioned observer would good reasons to remain quiet. An unfavourable account of Winters' actions could lead to animosity from other umpires. And what about future games in which Winters himself umpires Helton? It would take a lot for Winters to get tossed from his job, so there's every likelihood that Helton's going to have to play in front of him in the future.

Helton has all the credibility in this incident. Unfortunately for his cause, Bradley has a reputation as a hot-head -- the typical blog sentiments are that he's a “an arrogant player who is prone to blow-ups,” and a “raging non-sensical time bomb” -- and that the incident was typical. “He literally hurt himself by getting angry and defying authority. Has a player ever summed up his entire career more succinctly with one play?”

The mainstream writers are on board too. Scott Miller has already congratulated himself for the bold prognostication that Bradley's move to the Padres “will end badly,” and decided that the Padres will miss the post-season “because of one more failure by Bradley to manage his anger.”

Milton's past issues are well known. And when a man's reputation precedes him, it's tough to get a fair shake. Consider his famous dust-up from 2005, when he accused Jeff Kent of a lack of leadership and an inability to deal with black players. He was called onto the carpet by team owner Frank McCourt and then GM Paul DePodesta, and criticized in the press.

Well here we are two years later, and what's in the news? Another young, black player on the Los Angeles Dodgers has raised similar questions. “Who said he was a leader?,” questioned James Loney, after Kent had said of the young Dodgers “they don't get it...professionalism, how to manufacture a run, how to keep your emotions in it. There's just a lot of things that go on with playing 162 games...I'm running out of time. A lot of kids in here, they don't understand that.”

It's enough to make you think that Milton Bradley might have had a point about Jeff Kent the first time around. And that his side of this story deserves to be heard today. Trouble is, it's up to Todd Helton to tell it.

HISTORICALLY MINDED FOOTNOTE: Readers with long memories may remember that in July 2006 Andy and I had a battle royale over the question of discipline for Zidane after the head-butt to Matterazzi in the World Cup. I stood firmly on the side that Zidane's ejection was appropriate, and that a physical response to a verbal assault should never be accepted. The more passionate Andy stood up for Zidane: it's easy for you to say you would have walked away, but you weren't in the game...at a certain point, [a physical response] is self-defence. This time, my sympathies are provisionally with Bradley, and although I don't approve of his attempt to go after Mike Winters I empathize with his reaction, especially if Winters said anything close to what's suspected.

Bonds Is History

2007-09-22T00:04:00.000-06:00

I’ve written quite a few posts about Barry Bonds, but the one I never wanted to write was about the Giants cutting their ties to the man who built PacBell/AT&T Park. It echoes their 1972 decision to abandon a 41-year-old Willie Mays, who played out the final 135 games of his major league career with the New York Mets. At least Bonds doesn’t have to share the indignity of being traded for $50,000 and a player the calibre of Charlie Williams.

The conventional wisdom is that Oakland would be a natural fit. They had a great experience with Frank Thomas in 2006, and are in the market for power hitting after the failure of Mike Piazza. It would also keep Bonds in the Bay area (although his off-season home is in southern California), and it could increase his batting time through use of the DH slot.

Yes, it makes sense – both for Bonds and for Oakland - but Nate Silver makes the argument that the Padres would be an even better fit: ”They have no problem picking up players with some baggage, they’re on the West Coast in a low-key media environment, they have a smart GM who understands Bonds’ value, they’ll need a left fielder if Milton Bradley departs to free agency, and they’re a good team that will give Bonds the opportunity to go out a winner.” Excellent points.

But before we get to the future, I want to take a moment to contemplate Peter Magowan’s decision. I think the best way to approach it is to consider the following:

I.“Barry Bonds was the best player in baseball every year from 1990 through 2004.” – Nate Silver, September 21, 2007

This is simply indisputable – and for 11 of those 14 ‘best player in baseball’ years he was a Giant. That San Francisco never assembled a team that could win a championship behind him is an indictment of the management, not Bonds.

We all know the gaudy statistics that quantify the peaks of his achievement, but it’s the lack of lows that really stand out when you scan down his adjusted OPS over the years. The worst year he ever put up was 156 – and that was last year when he was coming back from injury in 2006. It was still fifth best in the National League. This year, he’s first again.

II.“Re-signed as a free agent in the off-season, he made US$19.3 million in a one-year contract, including $3.5 million in bonuses…Bonds' presence helped the Giants build their waterfront ballpark that is on pace to draw more than three million fans for the eighth straight season since opening….Magowan said he was not concerned about how his absence would affect attendance. "I think we pride ourselves as an organization on knowing what our fans think…We listen to our fans carefully, but they don't make the decisions. They are made by the baseball people." – Associated Press, September 21, 2007

The question of Bonds’ salary is tied up with his productivity as a player (is he worth it?), and with San Francisco’s budget, which it hopes to re-purpose to build a younger team.

I’ll address both these points in a moment, but wanted to throw the numbers up there as a reminder that the Giants’ financial success – theirs is the only privately financed ballpark built in the past 40 years, and only the Yankees and Dodgers have outsold them since PacBell / AT&T opened – has been built around their marquee player. Magowan had better be right about this business decision.

III.San Francisco's split with Barry Bonds means is that the baseball people are back in charge of the Giants…Everyone knew Bonds, at 43, couldn't play the outfield and was brittle as a saltine. With him, the Giants were going to be older, slower, less athletic and far more one-dimensional…[The decision to bring him back for 2007] was, as predicted, bad news for Sabean, new manager Bruce Bochy and anybody who cared more about Giants W's than individual records. – Scott Miller, September 21, 2007

Right, it wasn’t a business decision, it was a baseball decision. This is all about building a winning team, and Barry’s old and slow and his defence undermines whatever pop his bat may have left. Gotcha.

Scott Miller’s contempt for Bonds has blinded him to what is patently obvious when you look at the numbers – he remains one of the best left fielders in baseball, and far from contributing only to his individual records, he’s done more to help the Giants win than any other player.

Let’s look at the top left fielders in baseball this season. The table below shows four measures – Batting Runs Above Average (a measure of batting and baserunning productivity), Fielding Runs Above Average, Wins Above Replacement Level-3 (adjusted for all time), and Value Over Replacement Player (which measures offensive contributions only).

How bad a fielder is Barry, and how much does it undermine his value? Well, among the ten best left fielders in baseball, Bonds’ 2007 fielding is ranked equal to Carl Crawford, and above Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell. But you don’t see Scott Miller writing columns about old, slow Carl Crawford (or rather, young, fast, inept Carl Crawford). Nor do you see him providing context – that only three of the leaders (Soriano, Holliday and Byrnes) made significant contributions to their teams through defence, while Dunn and Burrell have fielded the ball so badly that it nearly halves their production.

By WARP3, Bonds is the fourth best left fielder in baseball. Holliday is the breakout leader this season, Byrnes and Soriano are next, followed by Bonds. There are six players clustered behind him with 6.3 to 6.6 wins above replacement level.

Put another way, there are only three left fielders in all of baseball who could have done more than Bonds did this year to help the Giants win baseball games: Matt Holliday, Eric Byrnes and Alfonso Soriano.

Player	BRAA	FRAA	WARP3	VORP
Holliday	52	17	12.0	71.9
Byrnes	21	20	9.2	36.8
Soriano	17	19	8.1	32.2
Bonds	55	-12	7.4	56.3
Lee	30	-11	6.6	37.2
Ramirez	29	2	6.5	32.6
Matsui	30	-2	6.4	32.8
Crawford	32	-12	6.4	38.0
Dunn	38	-17	6.3	45.3
Burrell	34	-19	4.9	34.2

Which brings us to the question of what comes next.

Option one: youngsters. The top ranked outfield prospects at the start of the season were Eddy Martinez-Estevee, Fred Lewis, or Nate Schierholtz. Schierholtz spent his age-23 season in Triple-A and did well (.333/.365/.560). Despite kind words for EME, Kevin Goldstein’s overall assessment is what rings true: “It's not a good system by any means. This is what happens when you throw away first round picks, like the organization did with the Michael Tucker fiasco a few years back.”

Option two: free agents. Can the Giants replace Bonds’ production (7.4 wins above replacement) from the upcoming free agent market?

Let’s take a look at who’s coming available ranked by their 2006 WARP (age in brackets):
Bobby Abreu (34)
Andruw Jones (31)
Torii Hunter (32)
Eric Byrnes (32)
Adam Dunn (28)
Milton Bradley (30)
Aaron Rowand (30)

In a recent HT column, John Beamer estimated that even coming off a disastrous 2007 season, Andruw Jones will be able to sign a six-year $80 million contract ($13.3 per) – and that’s on the basis of producing just 3.4 wins above replacement, with an upside projection of 4.3 WARP.

Is there any chance, then, that the Giants could spend the $19.3 million base salary they pay Bonds in a way that will replace his 7.4 WARP? They might come close in 2008, but it would be at the expense of future seasons as the players signed to multi-year contracts continue their decline phase, or watch their numbers do a bus plunge. And I wouldn’t sign any of the above list to long term deals after seeing the problems they’ve faced this season.

The San Francisco Giants have not made a baseball decision, or a business decision, they’ve just made a decision. In the short term, it’s going to hurt their ability to win and put bums in the seats – but it’s not like they were going to be a contender next year given the rest of their roster.

It’s that fact that lets me end this on a slightly optimistic note. Barry’s got a better chance at a World Series ring pretty much anywhere other than San Francisco. That the Giants cut him rather than the other way around will let him pursue his dream without having to reject the club and the fans who gave him a home for the past fifteen years. That might turn out to be the happiest memory of all.

Baseball’s New Robin Hood

2007-09-19T23:53:00.001-06:00

One of most pleasing developments for me this baseball season has been the progress of pitcher Chad Billingsley (pictured above in a Robin Hood costume, accompanied by other Dodger rookies and sophomores, including James Loney in a sailor suit, Andre Ethier in a pink dress and Delwyn Young as, gulp, Snow White).

A first round pick from 2003, Billingsley has been the Dodger’s number one prospect from draft day, and he made his debut in June of last year at the age of 21. In 90 innings of major league work, he delivered an adjusted ERA of 121 (3.18 in nominal terms), comfortably above average and exceptional for an athlete of his age.

Last year the fantasy baseball owner in me was screaming at the Dodgers to give Billingsley regular time in the rotation (there are few things less valuable in fantasy than a middle reliever with an unpredictable workload).

This year Billingsley came into the year still looking for that regular turn. The Dodgers decided to let veteran Brett Tomko keep his rotation slot, and Billingsley was again sent to the bullpen.

Billingsley's chance came on June 21, following an injury to Jason Schmidt. It was an inauspicious occasion: he threw 70 pitches to 16 Toronto batters, and left after just 3 2/3 innings having allowed two runs and three walks, while striking out one. His next start, in Arizona, was even worse – he allowed five runs in four innings, walked another three batters and had just two strikeouts.

Fortunately, Los Angeles was out of options. Billingsley kept pitching, and over the comings months made 17 starts, delivering a 7-4 record on a 3.16 ERA. In his 99 2/3 innings as a starter this year, he’s struck out 88 batters and surrendered 41 walks. His job is secure.

Over 140 innings this season, Billingsley’s delivered an adjusted ERA of 144 – a substantial improvement over 2006, and a figure that would put him among the league leaders if he met the minimum innings pitched requirement (Atlanta’s John Smoltz is fifth overall with an adjusted ERA of 146, while Jake Peavy holds a commanding lead at 174).

There’s not too much behind the scenes to worry about. His BABIP this season is .297, which I'm guessing is a bit high for a guy whose home park is Dodger Stadium – especially since his BABIP at home is .323. Presumably that should come down next year, although his away-BABIP of .247 will likely also come up.

The strikeout rates have been very good (7.9 per 9ip), and his walk rate (3.7) is a bit high but improving. Since the start of August – which spans 9 games – he’s had a 2.43 ERA over 55 2/3 IP with 54 SO and 19 BB (the latter reflecting per game rates of 8.8 SO and 3.1). There's also been a big drop in his HR rate – although that was inevitable given that his rate was distorted by a disastrous opening to the season.

I'm reluctant to call any 55 inning span an improvement (or decline) based on where it falls in the season, but Billingsley's very young, and my guess is he's learning and getting better. At the very least we can say that since the start of August he's been a superlative pitcher.

All of which makes me wonder: if he's a starter for a full season next year, what will those numbers look like? I don't have an answer to that right now, just a sense of excitement at seeing Billingsley live up to his potential.

And what of the Robin Hood costume? For that, I'll give Billingsley the last word (links added):

A lot of people know about teams hazing their rookies and younger players. The vets had us do a little costume party after we finished the Chicago series. I was Robin Hood...no tights...got lucky. Other guys had it way worse, like Snow White, Popeye, a barely dressed fat woman, and others. When we got to San Fran. that night, the bus dropped us off about 6 blocks from the hotel, so we could show off our lovely outfits. It was quite entertaining. I'll work on getting some photos for all to see.

Dick Pound's War

2007-09-18T23:36:00.000-06:00

There was good news from Montreal today, where WADA head Dick Pound announced that he’s leaving the organization at the end of his current three year term. A successor will be selected at their November meetings in Madrid.

I’ve no personal animosity towards the man, or towards the efforts of sports governing bodies to agree on and regulate objectionable behaviour including performance enhancing drugs.

But I’ve long objected to Pound’s over-the-top style – a sort of Sheila Fraser on steroids. He’s slandered individual athletes and entire sports based on the thinnest of evidence, or even outright supposition.

Back in November 2005 I took offense to his drive-by attack on the NHL, when he suggested that a third of players were using performance enhancing drugs. It took about half an hour to look at the WADA’s own test results and debunk the claim.

Pound was faking. It was just another moment in a long-running campaign to garner attention for his cause and himself (I've always expected it was more about the latter). The media loves him because he’s always ready with a quote. Just not with the evidence.

His style has alienated colleagues over the years. He lost his bid for election to the IOC in 2001, and after making unsupported allegations against Lance Armstrong, Dutch anti-doping head Emile Vrijman authored a 2006 report into the incident that ended by calling for an investigation into how Pound deals with the media. After Armstrong formally complained to the IOC, its ethics committee concluded that while it did not have jurisdiction over the WADA head, he should be more prudent in his public comments.

One of Pound’s last acts is to bully professional golf into adopting WADA-approved rules and testing. Legend Gary Player got into the act with a Poundism of his own: "at least 10 players and maybe more are on something,” he said at Carnoustie, adding, "I know for a fact that, whether it's HGH (human growth hormone) or steroids, some golfers are doing it." Pound agreed. Asked to substantiate the claim, they declined to name names.

With no reliable test available for HGH, the PGA recommended leaving it off the list for now. For Pound, that’s not good enough. Ever ready with a quip, he opined yesterday that HGH is the "drug of choice for anyone who wants to hit the ball far".

Don't bother looking for evidence to back that up, either. All’s fair in Dick Pound’s war. Hopefully in November WADA turns the battle over to a more circumspect General.

Back In Oil Country

2007-09-18T20:03:00.000-06:00

It's hockey season again in Edmonton. The pre-season officially kicked off at Rexall last night, I went to the game last night against the Panthers - was about 10 minutes late so it was 3-0 for the Oil by the time I got there. The highlights:

• They showed a guy who I'm pretty sure was Robbie Schremp sitting in the crowd. He was wearing an Oilers jersey and sitting with some girl who looks like she works as a beer tub server at The Standard. When he noticed the camera was on him, he turned to her, put his arm around her, and turned back to the camera and smiled. It was hilarious; I hope he turns into our version of Joe Namath.

• I didn't even notice that Matt Greene was in the game until late in the 3rd Period, which probably means he played okay.

• I'm not sure who else was on defense, besides Gilbert and Young, but they gave up a ton of shots. Roli and Deslauriers (to a lesser degree) looked sharp though.

• Sam Gagner is the real deal. His goal was a bit of a fluke, but he was sharp all night. I hate to sound like Joe Morgan, but that kid is a hockey player. He was always around the puck, and didn't make any stupid decisions.

• Hemsky looked like Hemsky, and Dustin Penner did nothing remarkable that I could tell.

• Florida's goaltending looked shaky. Vokoun had given up 3 goals on 5 shots by the time I got there, and the other guy coughed up the puck all three times he left his crease to play it (only leading to one goal, amazingly enough).

• Kyle Brodziak will be a perfectly fine utility forward in the Toby Peterson mold.

• I'm pretty ambivalent about the new jerseys, but I can't fathom why anyone would pay between $150-350 for one of them. However, I wouldn't mind being the first person to own a Gagner jersey...

Lucchino's Folly? The Beckett Deal Two Years Later

2007-09-15T23:14:00.000-06:00

It’s been nearly two years since Theo Epstein’s 85-day vacation from the Boston Red Sox, an absence that saw one of the franchise’s defining trades completed by a 7-man committee led by International Scouting VP Craig Shipley.

By Seth Mnookin’s account, the decision to acquire pitcher Josh Beckett was driven by BoSox President & CEO Larry Lucchino, who wanted to both compete with the Yankees and demonstrate that the front office was still functioning despite the loss of Epstein. Other members of the team, including then co-general manager Jed Hoyer, had reservations, principally driven by Beckett’s health.

When the deal was done, the media consensus was strongly behind Lucchino.

“The Yankees got clipped,” wrote Mike Lupica of the New York Daily News, calling Beckett “a 25 year old Curt Schilling” and saying the inclusion of a “fading” Lowell and “the best shortstop prospect in anybody’s system” didn’t matter.

Two years later, we're ready to ask whether Lupica’s assessment stands the test of time.

What was in the deal?
"You need prospects and you need finances, and we're fortunate to have both of those," Shipley said after the deal was done to acquire pitcher Josh Beckett, gold-glove third baseman Mike Lowell, and set-up man Guillermo Mota from the Florida Marlins.

Boston gave up two significant players: shortstop Hanley Ramirez and pitcher Anibal Sanchez, along with two other minor leaguers, Harvey Garcia and Jesus Delgado.

After Epstein’s return, Mota was packaged with Andy Marte, Kelly Shoppach and cash, and sent to the Indians for Coco Crisp, David Riske and Josh Bard. Riske was in turn traded straight up for Javier Lopez, and part-way into his first season with Boston Bard was sent to San Diego with Cla Meredith for Doug Mirabelli. As you’ll read below, none of that matters.

What Boston got out of the deal.
According to the Fox broadcast team today, what Boston got was a pitcher who owns 44 head of cattle, listens to Waylon Jennings and has won a world series at Yankee Stadium. Apparently these are all good things, in that order.

They also got a power pitcher with a history of blister and shoulder problems that have limited his playing time.

The best news for Boston was that Beckett topped 200 innings for the first time last year, and projects to crest the mark again this year. While his first year with Boston didn’t measure up to expectations (16-11 record, a 5.02 ERA and minus-2 RAA), he’s rebounded with a season that ranks with his best in Florida. Going into today, Beckett was 18-6 with a 3.27 ERA and 32 RAA, and will set career bests for strikeouts and walks. His adjusted ERA is fifth-best in the American League.

For an ace pitcher, Beckett’s contract is very reasonable – just $4.3 million last year. After agreeing to an extension with a signing bonus of $2 million, he’ll earn $6, $9.5, and $10.5 million in 2007-09, with a club option for 2010 of $12 million. The club option vests if Beckett starts 28 games in 2009, or 56 games over the final two years – in simpler terms, the option vests if Beckett stays healthy. He’s actually making less money this year than Schilling ($13 M) and Clement ($9.5 M), and the same as Matsuzaka and Gagne ($6 M). Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield makes $4 M.

At the time of the deal, many considered the then 31-year-old Lowell’s contract ($30.25 million over four years) the price of acquiring Beckett. Boston was simply one of the few teams with the financial resources to eat a contract of that size. The funny thing is, Lowell’s contributed more to Boston’s success so far than Beckett, whatever measure you pick. He produced a full 33 runs above average last year, and 37 year-to-date; his adjusted OPS (106 and 128) are solid, and he’s 16.8 wins above replacement since coming to Boston.

For the record, Mota’s value within the transaction is effectively nil. Crisp (24) and Lopez (5) have made positive contributions to Boston’s runs above average over the past two seasons, although Crisp’s comes entirely from his value as a fielder in 2007. Bard (-4 before his trade) and Mirabelli (-18) undo virtually all of this. The deal would look better if Mirabelli hadn’t sucked up 266 at bats this year and last.

Player	Year	Age	GS	ERA+	VORP	W-L	WARP	RAA	Salary	%Tm$
Beckett	2006	26	33	92	19.9	16-11	5.9	2	$4.325 M	3.6%
Beckett	2007	27	27	140	53	18-6		32	$6 M	4.2%
Player	Year	Age	AB	OPS+	VORP	EQA	WARP	RAA	Salary	%Tm$
Lowell	2006	32	573	106	20.7	0.278	8.2	33	$9 M	7.5%
Lowell	2007	33	533	128	42.4	0.304	8.6	37	$9 M	6.3%

What Florida got out of the deal.
The Marlins extracted themselves from $48.3 million in salary commitments to Lowell ($18 M) and Beckett ($30.25 M), plus Beckett’s $12 M option year in 2010. This was part of a larger plan that took their payroll from $60 M down to $15 M, and their record from 83-79 (.512) to 78-84 (.481). Clearly it wasn’t worth spending $45 M a year for 5 extra wins.

In addition to shedding salary, they got the best player in the deal, 2006 rookie of the year Hanley Ramirez. Today, Ramirez ranks 5th in average and slugging percentage in the National League and 7th overall in adjusted OPS at 151. Most impressive, in all of baseball he’s second only to Alex Rodriguez in VORP, which measures only offensive contributions.

Being just 23, he is, of course, a bargain, earning just $402,000. Ramirez has posted 64 runs above average while under contract to the Marlins, and 18.5 wins above replacement level, including 10.0 this year. That’s an eye-popping number, particularly on a team that’s won only 64 games this year.

Ramirez’s only weakness – and it’s a significant one – is his defence, which is among the worst in baseball at any position. His batting production this year is actually 53 runs above average, while his fielding is 13 runs below average. It’s fair to describe him as both the best offensive and worst defensive shortstop in baseball.

Florida also gained Anibal Sanchez, a young pitcher who entered the public consciousness when he threw a no-hitter on September 6, 2006. The achievement was witnessed by just a few thousand fans, and it broke a record no-hitters drought that had prompted careless speculation something fundamental had changed about the batter-pitcher dynamic.

Sanchez contributed 20 runs above average last year, thanks to his ability to mix a curve, changeup and slider with a mid-90s fastball. His injury history – he missed the 2003 season recovering from Tommy John surgery – didn’t stop the scouts from being high on his chances. After he joined the Marlins, Baseball America ranked him behind only Jeremy Hermida and Hanley Ramirez in their prospect rankings.

He may never deliver on that potential – in June 2007 he was diagnosed with a torn labrum, and was operated on by the busy Dr. James Andrews.

As for pitchers Harvey Garcia and Jesus Delgado, neither are among Baseball America’s top 10 prospects in the Marlins organization. Garcia made it to the Albuquerque Isotopes this year, but pitched just 46 undistinguished innings, plus 4 innings for the Marlins after roster expansion. Delgado did little better during his 93 innings with the AA Carolina Mudcats.

Player	Year	Age	AB	OPS+	VORP	EQA	WARP3	RAA	Salary	%Tm$
Ramirez	2006	22	633	116	54.9	0.286	8.5	24.0	$327 K	2.2%
Ramirez	2007	23	576	151	84.1	0.319	10.0	40.0	$402 K	1.3%
Player	Year	Age	GS	ERA+	VORP	W-L	WARP	RAA	Salary	%Tm$
Sanchez	2006	22	17	152	36.2	10-3	4.8	20	$327 K	1.1%
Sanchez	2007	23	6	88	2.1	2-1		-1	$381 K	1.2%

What the future holds
The Red Sox are championship contenders, but the future belongs to the Marlins.

Baseball Prospectus’s projection for the next five years suggests that Ramirez alone will deliver 32.7 wins above replacement – just one fewer than Beckett and Lowell combined.

Prior to Sanchez’s injury, BP also projected a five-year WARP of17.3 for the pitcher; post-injury those projections are likely to come down significantly.

In terms of marginal value above replacement (MORP), Ramirez projects to deliver $100 million in value over the next five years, compared to $42 million from Beckett and $34 million from Lowell. The latter figures are comparable to the $39 million projected for Sanchez at the start of this year.

2008-12 Projections	WARP	MORP
Beckett	18.2	$41.95 M
Lowell	15.5	$33.58 M
Ramirez	32.7	$100.5 M
Sanchez	17.3	$38.8 M

The projected values make the future seem one-sided. It’s not.

The impact on Boston also needs to consider the alternatives. If Ramirez had remained with the Red Sox and reached a similar level of performance (64 runs above average over two years), he’d presumably have replaced Julio Lugo’s production (23 RAA), for a net positive impact of 41 RAA. The Sox would then have had to replace either Beckett’s or Lowell’s production, presumably from the free agent market.

As the Mota trades demonstrate, the future may not be fully mapped out yet. Lowell’s peak year was at age 29, and although 33 he’s close to that level of production now. The post-season would be an excellent time to trade him, especially if free agent to be Alex Rodriguez comes available.

“They love what they’re getting from Beckett – an 18-win season,” the announcing team agreed during Saturday’s game. And by the end of the afternoon the Fenway faithful had watched Beckett rack up number 19.

That fact illustrates the bottom line: this trade has produced a win-win outcome. Florida shed salary that it didn’t make sense to spend, and gained one of the game’s best young players. Ramirez could star for a future Marlins championship contender, or be converted into more talent once free agency looms.

Boston gained much needed production – the kind needed to give it the edge in its race for the division title. This year Lowell and Beckett have delivered 69 RAA, while Ramirez and Sanchez produced 39. That difference works out to about 3 wins above average, and likely more than what was available on the free agent market.

Much of the gap comes from the absence of Sanchez, Ramirez’s inept fielding and Lowell’s resurgence; change any of these and the Sox might have been better without the deal. But that’s not the world we’re working with today.

Will Ramirez continue to explode into one of the game’s superstars? Will Beckett remain healthy? Will Sanchez be a factor again? Will Lowell remain in Boston?

The answer to none of these questions is known. But for now, Lucchino’s deal is holding up just fine.

Miller’s Manners

2007-09-12T22:30:00.000-06:00

At the end of his latest column questioning the wisdom of September call-ups, CBS Sports writer Scott Miller digresses into the topic of ball park etiquette.

After mentioning the Carlos Zambrano incident (he was booed during a disastrous outing, took exception in post-game comments, and then shamed into apologizing for criticizing the fans), and the rather inexplicable way that Anaheim fans turned on Francisco Rodriguez after a recent blown save, he moved on to the Brewers, and gave catcher Damian Miller a platform to air his opinion: "We're in it. It's supposed to be fun. But there's been some boo birds out there, and I don't quite understand it."

Scott Miller’s view is that having missed the playoffs for 25 years, the fans should be grateful that they’re even in the hunt. (Memo to Miller: there’s a job with the Oilers waiting if you ever leave journalism.) Grateful’s understating it, actually, since he writes that “Brewers fans should be thrilled right now with the nightly drama. And yet, Yost and his first-place team are still getting ripped more often than not in Milwaukee.”

Perhaps the fans are booing because at the end of June they were 15 games above .500, and their nearest rival was below .500. Today they’re tied with the Cubs. At least BP’s playoff odds still give them the edge.

Damian Miller should probably be thankful that having given away the division, the team at least had the decency to do the giving on the road. The Brewers are a fan-pleasing 45-26 at home and 29-44 away from Miller Park. They wouldn’t be booing if those records were reversed, they’d be storming the gates by torchlight.

Funnily enough, this simple explanation doesn’t occur to Scott Miller. The fans are booing, he says, because “There is a distinct lack of civility in our society, and our pervasive talk-show culture is only eroding it more rapidly. It's all about who can scream the loudest, and if results aren't produced now, the screaming begins.”

[Aside: I’m writing this as Glenn Beck (shudder) is ranting on the television that “Vietnam has Hanoi Jane, now Iraq has Damascus Dennis (Kucinich).” Maybe he has a point about the talk shows.]

Now this is entertaining: a lecture in civility from Scott Miller. His campaign against Barry Bonds reached hysterical proportions this summer – the latest stage of a multi-year obsession. Having failed in his 2006 attempt to popularize the moniker “BALCO Barry,” Miller developed a childish fetish: pairing every reference to Bonds with an asterisk (lest we forget).

Throughout, the tone of the campaign has been distinctly lacking in the civility Miller demands of the fans. Here are two examples – one from last season, and one from the night of historic home run 756:

I. BALCO Barry owns vanity and greed like he owns the San Diego Padres' pitching staff…Like Nixon at the peak of Watergate, Bonds behaves as if he's above the law. He simply adds names to his Enemies List and sneers toward another day. Now, the conclusion needs to be the same. Like Nixon, Bonds needs to climb aboard that helicopter, flash a peace sign -- or another hand gesture sign, his choice, if he'll just go -- and disappear from the public eye. He is an embarrassment. He is a detriment to the game. And ultimately, if he continues down this greed-infested, vanity-covered path, the only thing that will save him is a pardon.

II. What once was the most cherished record in all of sports lost its luster at 8:51 PT on Tuesday night, Aug. 7, when Bonds* blasted the home run that had never been hit in 100-plus years of major league history, career No. 756, on a full-count, fifth-inning fastball from Washington pitcher Mike Bacsik. The tarnish on this record cannot be removed by cleaner, the George Mitchell report on steroids (whenever that's finished) or by any number of other statements or stain removers. This isnot a record baseball is proud of, nor should it be.

There are plenty more examples. The record for asterisks in a single column may have been the 15 in April 12th's column, but the frequency barely diminished as the season wore on. There were five during a 200-word passage in his All Star voting column alone.

Miller’s "Bonds*" campaign has become an embarrassment. Just as importantly for the reader, it’s become boring. It was useful to make a point in one column; it’s tedious as an ongoing endeavour. Having declared that he’ll never print Bonds’s name again without the qualifier, Miller may feel that he has no way out that saves face. But he’s just digging himself in deeper with each column.

For the record, I hate booing – whether it’s at the ballpark, or in a column. I’m not sure I’ve ever booed a player (officials are another matter). I’ve cheered, sat on my hands, groaned, derisively clapped, and done everything in between. But booing the opposing team, or your own team, never seemed sporting to me. I’d be happy to join Miller in chastising the Milwaukee fans (the swoon in the standings had a great deal to do with the injury to Ben Sheets, for example). But only once Miller's restored some civility to his own endeavours.

Bears defeat Oiler rookies; order restored to universe

2007-09-11T07:10:00.000-06:00

After last year's penalty-filled shellacking, the University of Alberta Golden Bears staged a comeback last night and defeated the Edmonton Oiler's rookie squad by a score of 2 to 1. The win brings their series record to 11-9.

Andy spent the post-game writing up a summary, which I wholeheartedly endorse. I spent the match snapping some more photos. The full set's here. They should be up as a slideshow on the Battle of Alberta site later today. Here's a teaser:

And it falls in for a hit.

2007-09-09T20:02:00.000-06:00

“And it falls in for a hit.”

There are ten starting pitchers who’ve heard those words a lot in 2007. They are among the unluckiest players in baseball. With a combined 79-109 win-loss record, they’ve allowed an average of 5.73 runs in the 257 games they’ve started. But it’s not all their fault.

Who are these ten? They’re the major league leaders in BABIP – batting average on balls put in play. The victims of poor defence and bad luck, these pitchers saw the ball fall in for a hit at a .343 pace – more than 50 points higher than average.

Player	GS	WL	IP	RA	SO/9	BB/9	BABIP
Mussina, M	23	8-10	127.3	5.73	5.4	2.1	.352
Olsen, S	29	9-12	159.3	6.33	6.8	4.1	.350
Wells, D (SD)	22	5-8	118.7	5.86	4.8	2.5	.344
Hernandez, F	25	11-7	157.0	4.07	8.0	2.5	.344
Jackson, E	27	4-14	138.0	6.65	7.1	5.0	.343
Perez, Od	26	8-11	137.3	5.87	4.2	3.3	.341
Contreras, J	26	8-16	160.0	6.81	5.6	3.3	.341
Weaver, J	23	6-12	125.0	6.34	5.0	2.2	.340
Kazmir, S	30	11-8	182.0	4.24	9.8	4.0	.340
Millwood, K	26	9-11	146.0	5.86	6.8	3.6	.339

As you can see from the list, only two have made a significant contribution to their team’s success. Scott Kazmir and Felix Hernandez each hold winning records, boast superlative strikeout rates, and have contributed more than 30 runs worth of production over replacement level despite a high rate of production from opposing batters.

Stars from an early age, they have a lot of development still ahead: Kazmir is just 23, and Hernandez 21. With time and experience comes endurance. Combined with better luck, better fielding, and good health, they’re expected to by Cy Young contenders.

Whether that good fielding shows up anytime soon is open to question. Both Tampa (Jackson) and Seattle (Weaver) contribute another name to the top-ten list, and they do so for a reason. Tampa is dead last in defense this year, with a defensive efficiency rating of .663, and Seattle is 28th at .679. Sandwiched between them are the Marlins, who’ve missed a lot of drives behind Scott Olsen.

The worst fielders on these teams, measured by zone rating: third basemen Iwamura, Cabrera and Beltre; first basemen Sexson and Pena (they get their high fielding percentages by standing still, apparently), and star shortstops Hanley Ramirez and Yuniesky Betancourt. The infields are absolutely porous.

The rest of the list is a dog’s breakfast. Mike Mussina could try to blame the quality of opposition – the batters he faced combined for an OPS of .766, the 9th highest in baseball this year. But that doesn’t mean much where BABIP is concerned, as the pitchers who faced tougher opposition performed much better. He’d do better to look to his teammates, who rank a mediocre 17th overall in fielding.

Odalis Perez can look to his defence as well. The Royals are 24th overall, and all of their starting pitchers suffer from BABIPs that are above league average. Kevin Millwood’s Texas team ranked 21st.

David Wells, however, is a different story. The Padres produced a sterling .237 BABIP for Chris Young, the second best in baseball, but a miserable .344 for Wells. Those numbers are interesting; they average .290, which coincidentally is around league average.

Had San Diego’s defence spread its proficiency more evenly between these two pitchers, and luck concurred, their win-loss records would be dramatically different. As it stands, San Diego was so dismayed by the 44 year-old’s performance that Wells lost his job. The Dodgers saw things differently, and are taking a chance on the veteran.

I don’t mean to whitewash Wells’s situation entirely. His low strikeout rate – it last topped 5 SO/9 in 2002 – means he relies heavily on his defence for the outcome. L.A.’s fielding is actually a notch below the San Diego’s, but perhaps it will perform better for Boomer.

Particularly high or low BABIPs are usually associated with regression the following season. For that reason, you might look to any of these pitchers to have better records in 2008.

For seven of these pitchers, however, the fielding support they’ll get in 2008 is highly suspect. Barring a major personnel change, Seattle, Florida and Tampa will likely remain near the bottom of the fielding charts, and a young Kansas City team may not be far behind.

For Mussina, Wells and Contreras, age and declining ability makes it tough to feel good about a rebound. Usually I look at a high BABIP and feel optimistic about a pitcher’s prospects for the following year. The long term projections for Hernandez and Kazmir are excellent; but other than that, it’s tough to think next year will be any better.

Can't Touch This

2007-09-04T20:39:00.000-06:00

Despite -- or perhaps because of -- the language barrier, Ichiro remains one of the best quotes in sports. From yesterday's milestone game:

"Suzuki's solo drive…extended his major-league record for consecutive 200-hit seasons to begin a career to seven. The major-league record for consecutive 200-hit seasons is eight, held by Willie Keeler (1894-1901). Suzuki matched the AL mark, held by Wade Boggs (1983-89)…Suzuki then singled in Betancourt and was caught off first base in a rundown, but decided against prolonging the play. The all-star outfielder promptly bolted toward the dugout without being tagged as the Yankee Stadium crowd chuckled. "I hate being touched by other people, so rather than being touched I'd rather run away from them," Suzuki said."

Maybe that's why he steals so many bases.

Horrifying

2007-09-04T20:15:00.000-06:00

I.
"It's the worst trauma I've seen. Absolutely. You hope the best for Juan, but he suffered a severe injury with a very guarded prognosis. ...It's way too early to say whether he will or he won't [regain full vision], and if he doesn't what percentage of vision loss he may have. So at this point we keep our fingers crossed, say a prayer for him and make sure he's getting the best treatment he can get." Paletta said the eye socket was essentially crushed on impact, comparing the injured area to the disintegration of an egg shell or ice cream cone, and that the optic nerve had sustained severe trauma. Reconstructive surgery may not take place for several days while doctors wait for swelling to subside. -- AP's report quoting St. Louis Cardinals Medical Director Dr. George Paletta.

II.
"I'm loathe to report what I've heard, not out of any sense of you don't need to know, but some details you just don't want to know. If you'd like to look up more, feel free to Google "blowout fracture." Encarnacion is facing extensive surgery to rebuild the orbital bones around his eye and cheekbone, but there's nothing but time and hope when it comes to his sight." -- Baseball Prospectus's Will Carroll.

Faint Hope

2007-09-04T19:32:00.000-06:00

While the baseball talk of the summer has been about how close the NL races are, the AL wildcard standings promise an exciting September. This morning, the top of the wild card heap looked like this:

76-62 New York
74-62 Seattle (GB: 1 )
73-64 Detroit (GB: 2.5)

For some time, the concensus has been that Seattle is outperforming its run differential (12 games above .500, they've scored just 8 runs more than they've given up), and their recent 1-9 swoon seems to bear that out. Many commentators -- Jim Leyland included -- have also suggested that the AL Central would not produce the wildcard (this was largely based on the assumption that defending league champion Detroit would win the division, and Cleveland would collapse as they did in 2006). That leaves the Yankees as the obvious choice, which would give the AL East the wild card for four out of five years.

But I think there's a dark horse to consider. Or rather, a dark bird. Let's look at the next rung down on the ladder:

70-67 Toronto (GB: 5.5)

Sure, they've got a few too many contenders in front of them, but their schedule works pretty well for making up ground:

7 games against NYY to close the big gap;

1 game against Detroit;

6 games against last place Tampa Bay (.413);

5 games against Baltimore (.434);

And the downside: 3 games against Boston.

It's a bit early to jump on the bandwagon -- particularly given Roy Halladay's propensity for complete game losses, and what looks to be a pummelling of Seattle by the Yankees tonight. And New York has its own full slate of games against the Rays and Orioles coming up. But there's a faint hope here, and that's more than the Jays have had for many a September.

Edmonton BG Triathlon World Cup

2007-08-04T23:56:00.000-06:00

The blog may be on life support (is anyone still checking it?), but the sportsmatters have been going strong. The Alberta Baseball Confederacy is into its second season, and the trade deadline is approaching. The Battle of Alberta boys, including the semi-retired Andy Grabia, have been lamenting the Oilers' signing of Dustin Penner. And I've been cheering Barry's pursuit of 755, which he tied tonight.

I also spent the afternoon of June 24th at the 2007 Edmonton BG Triathlon World Cup Elite Men's race. And there are photos! The top three finishers were Bevan Docherty (New Zealand), Alexander Brukhankov (Russia) and Sven Riederer (Switzerland). If you want to find an individual athlete, check the tags page. I'm a big fan of Finland's Jarmo Hast, and Venezuela's Leandro Lobo.

The photos are sorted into sets for the swim, bike and run, and a couple are below.

Race winner Bevan Docherty prepares for the swim.

Hong Kong's Andrew Wright emerges from the water after the first lap of the swim.
Croatia's Zvonko Cubric fights the pack in the bike leg.
Finland's champion Jarmo Hast in the bike leg.
Venezuela's Leandro Lobo strains near the finish.

NHL Draft Extravaganza!

2007-06-21T12:34:00.000-06:00

We should probably just let this blog die, since none of us have the time/interest to post more often than every few months. However, I'm a sucker for entry drafts in every sport, and since I've been stuck at home yesterday afternoon and today with the flu, I've finally had a chance to start reading up on this weekend's NHL draft. And blogging about it is probably a more productive use of my time than flooding blogger emeritus Andy Grabia's inbox with draft-related emails is.

Now, I know very little about all of these prospects, and I'm pretty sure I've never seen any of them play, but that won't stop me from passing judgment on them.

Before I mock the first round of the draft, some observations on the major stories of the weekend:

Sidney Crosby Isn't Walking Through the Door...
This is considered a weak draft, mostly since there's a lack of sure-fire elite prospects at the top. That said, it's impossible to project how draft classes will turn out. Most will produce at least a few all-stars and plenty of long-term NHLers, if not true franchise players. I'm thinking 2007 falls into that group.

(Un)Restricted Free Agents on the Move
Nashville and Philadelphia got the free agency season off to an early start with the move of impending free agents Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell to Philadelphia with contracts in hand.
I don't think there's anything underhanded about this, but I think Philly possibly overpaid in one case, and definitely in the other. Timmonen is probably overpaid somewhat for a guy who's not a franchise defenseman on par with Niedermayer, Lidstrom, Pronger etc. But $6.3 a year is decent value considering that guys like Pavel Kubina pull in $5 mil a year. Hartnell, on the other hand, is not worth the money he's getting paid. He's an interesting case, since he's the first UFA from an age group more associated with RFAs. At 25, he's getting paid more on anticipated production than past performance. So his contract should be compared to those of players like Rick Nash, Ales Hemsky, and Nathan Horton, all of whom signed long-term contracts during their RFA years. Comparing Hartnell to what Hemsky got last summer, and Horton got today, he is overpaid. He got more money than those two, despite being older and having produced less to date.

Where Philly does get value is by signing these two players ahead of July 1, and the 23rd pick in a draft that is a crapshoot from picks 4 until the end is worth it. Now, instead of being a last-place team with cap room to burn, the Flyers are a team on the rise who is 1-2 players away from being a contender. That makes it a far easier to sell to bring in a Gomez, Briere, or Drury in just over a week's time. So good on the Flyers for that, and good on the Preds for getting some return when they would have gotten nothing in return otherwise.

What Will the Oilers Do?
With three first round picks, this is a pivotal weekend in the team's history. It demands in-depth coverage and scrutiny of every possible scenario.

Ah, who am I kidding. I'm pretty sure their draft weekend will go something like this:

1st pick (6th overall) - Low upside, low downside, high-character two-way forward or defenceman from the Canadian Hockey League.

2nd pick (15th overall) - Obscure, low-ranked European player with dazzling physical skills but who is considered a "project"

3rd pick (30th overall) - Traded. Best case scenario - along with a medium-rated prospect or two for Wade Redden. Worst case scenario - for an aging, overpaid 2nd pairing defenceman or 2nd line forward.

2nd Round Pick - American high school or USHL player who will go on to become the team's best player from this draft.

Other Moves
1. Trade late round pick or prospect for the rights to an unsigned player currently playing in Europe.

2. Declare off-season a success.

Player Movement
I don't anticipate any of the other top impending free agents to be moved, since Buffalo still plans to negotiate with Briere and Drury, Jersey hasn't given up on Gomez from what I can tell, and I can't see any team paying a high-price to talk to Sheldon Souray (though he may be a pleasant conversationalist for all I know).

Goalies seem to be the hot commodity in Columbus. Since most teams assume that J-S Giguere will return to Anaheim, that leaves, with apologies to Ed Belfour, a dearth of goalies on the UFA market. So expect teams to kick the tires on Manny Fernandez (Minnesota) and Martin Gerber (Ottawa), both of whom are tied up in long-term contracts, but have been supplanted by younger starting goalies. Cristobal Huet (Montreal) could be had too, since it's a matter of time before Carey Price pushes him into the Fernandez-Gerber group, and San Jose could move either Evgeni "Humbert Humbert" Nabokov or (more likely) Vesa Toskala.

There is also talk that Ottawa could move Wade Redden, on the heels of an average playoff performance, and headed for free agency next summer. He has a no-trade clause, but might waive it to move closer to his hometown of Lloydminister (read: Edmonton). The Sens could be looking to move him, as they have a deep group on defense, and would like to clear cap space to resign Tom Preissing, he of the +40 plus/minus last season and right-handed point shot on the powerplay (a commodity that seems to be as rare in hockey as the left-handed reliever is in baseball). Edmonton, obviously, needs help on defense to fill the gaping hole left by Chris Pronger, and has cap space, picks, and prospects to burn. I'm all over this trade as long as Edmonton doesn't give up too much. Picking up the $6 million tab on Redden should reduce what they have to give up in terms of players/picks.

I haven't heard of any other player movement, but I'm sure there will be surprises.

Now...the mock draft, with my guess at how the picks will turn out. I haven't factored in trades (both picks for picks, and picks for players) which will surely happen.

1. Chicago - Patrick Kane, LW, Ontario Hockey League
An undersized sniper in the Daniel Briere mode. This guy lead the OHL in regular season and playoff scoring this past season, his first in the league, so I'm thinking he's a keeper. Short of a headline reading "Bill Wirtz Puts Team Up For Sale", he offers the best that Hawks fans can hope for.

Projected Stats - 45 G, 35 A at his peak

2. Philadelphia - James Van Riemsdyk, LW, US National Team Development Program
Big, physical, two-way winger. Sounds a lot like the guy the Flyers just traded for. Maybe they can get him to agree to a rookie discount if they agree to sign him to a 6 year, $25 million contract in 2013 when Hartnell's expires.

Projected Stats - 25 G, 25 A, 120 PIM at his peak

3. Phoenix - Kyle Turris, C, BCHL, headed to Wisconsin
Junior B sniper excelled at World Under 18s and has drawn comparisons to Joe Sakic and Paul Kariya. Seems like an obvious pick, which is why I was very tempted to have Phoenix screw it up and pick someone else. However, I'll give new GM Don Maloney the benefit of the doubt, and hope that they move back to Winnipeg before Turris hits his stride so that he'll play in front of an appreciative hometown crowd.

Projected Stats - 45 G, 55A, team captain at his peak.

4. Los Angeles Kings - Karl Azner, D, Calgary Hitmen (WHL)
Solid two-way defenceman; he'll be a great compliment for Jack Johnson and a horse on the backline.

Projected Stats - 5 G, 25 A, 28 minutes of ice time a night at his peak

5. Washington Capitals - Alexei Cherapanov, W, Russia
He's a high-risk, high-reward proposition, and will no doubt frustrate his coaches because of his penchant for taking shifts and nights off. I think he'll slide into the teens if Washington passes, but figuring he'll be a good fit with fellow Russians Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin, they'll take a chance.

Projected Stats - 30G, 25 A, minus 35 at his NHL peak. Back in Russia playing for big money by the age of 26.

6. Edmonton Oilers - Sam Gagner, F, Ontario Hockey League
Dave's kid, which makes me feel really old. He looks like the perfect player for MacT's system - plays in both ends of the rink, high-character, and not overly offensive minded.

Projected Stats - 25 G, 30 A, team captain at this peak.

7. Columbus Blue Jackets - Keaton Ellerby, D, WHL
New GM Scott Howson goes for the quick help on the backline, rather than gambling on the U.S. Juniors with higher upside but a longer development curve.

Projected Stats - 5 G, 20 A, many, many blocked shots.

8. Boston Bruins - Jakub Voracek, RW, QMJHL
This is wishful thinking on my part. He's a big winger who dominated in the Q playoffs, and would be a good compliment for Boston's skilled forwards like Bergeron, Savard, and Kessel.

Projected Stats - 30 G, 30 A at his peak

9. St. Louis Blues - Ryan McDonagh, D, Minnesota High School
The Blues have gone to the Minnesota well often in recent years, both when it's the obvious pick (Erik Johnson last year) and when it's not (TJ Oshie in 2005). McDonagh has a lot of potential, and would be a good gamble here.

Projected Stats - 15 G, 30 A at his peak

10. Florida Panthers - Logan Couture, C, OHL
I can't discern any sort of draft pattern from this franchise, so we'll go with the best player available.

Projected Stats - 25 G, 35 A at his peak

11. Carolina Panthers - Alex Plante, D, WHL
They pick a lot of CHL, especially WHL, players, and Plante seems to resemble Glen Wesley, so we'll go with him.

Projected Stats - 5 G, 15 A

12. Montreal Canadiens - Zach Hamill, C, WHL
Despite concerns about his skating, the Habs go for the offensive center.

Projected Stats - 20 G, 40 A

13. Toronto Maple Leafs - Angelo Esposito, C, QMJHL
The prohibitive #1 in the draft before the season started, he struggled a lot once his talented linemates graduated to the pros. I wouldn't be surprised to see him slide into the 20s or out of the first round entirely, but I'll be that the Leafs take him and he bombs worse than Brandon Convery.

Projected Stats - 15 G, 10 A

14. Colorado Avalanche - Kevin Shattenkirk, D, US National Team Development Program
Talented offensive defenseman seems like a good fit here.

Projected Stats - 12 G, 40 A at his peak

15. Edmonton Oilers - Max Pacioretty, LW, USHL
I deviated from the standard obscure European here, mostly because I'm too lazy to look one up (okay, I'll take Niclas Lucenius, who's ranked 49th by the Hockey News). Pacioretty seems like a Kevin Lowe pick. Big, physical, and headed to a U.S. College.

Projected Stats - 25 G, 25 A at his peak

16. Anaheim Ducks - Logan MacMillen, C, QMJHL
High character forward. Will be a checking line anchor for years to come

Projected Stats - 18 G, 15 A, 7 short-handed goals at his peak

17. NY Rangers - Mickael "Bob" Backlund, C, Sweden
He may lack the dreaded chicken-wing submission hold of his namesake, but he's a talented offensive player who falls due to injury concerns.

Projected Stats - 25 G, 35 A

18. Calgary Flames - Brandon Sutter, F, WHL
Nepotism rules the day. I've seen Brandon described as soft, which was a term I never thought would be associated with a Sutter.

Projected Stats - Whatever Ryan Sittler's NHL numbers were.

19 - Minnesota Wild - Oscar Moller, RW, WHL
I've seen him described as a Jacques Lemaire type player, so why not.

Projected Stats - 15 G, 10 A

20 - Pittsburgh Penguins - Colton Gilles, C, WHL
Clark's nephew is gritty, but lacks any semblance of offensive skill.

Projected Stats - 10 G, 15 A, several "monster" checks and penalty kills.

21 - Phoenix Coyotes - Casey Pierro-Zabotel, LW, BCHL
I know nothing about this guy, but it seems like the Coyotes are due to go way off the board on one of their picks.

Projected Stats - Career - 15 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 8 PIM

22 - Montreal Canadiens - Ian Cole, D, US National Team Development Program
This guy is considered a sleeper, and Montreal picks a lot of college-bound players towards the top of the draft.

Projected Stats - 5 G, 25 A at his peak

23 - Nashville Predators - Thomas Hickey, D, WHL
Skilled player from the WHL; fits the Nashville bill.

Projected Stats - 10G, 25 A at his peak

24 - St. Louis Blues - Joakim Andersson, C, Sweden
They pick a lot of Swedish forwards, or so it seems.

Projected Stats - Never comes over from Europe

25 - Vancouver Canucks - Jonathan Blum, D, WHL
Plays for the local Vancouver Giants, and is a solid player.

Projected Stats - 10 G, 20 A at his peak

26 - St. Louis Blues - Mike Hoeffel, LW, US National Team Development Program
They go back to the American college well, and pick Hoeffel, who is committed to Minnesota, a program that the Blues pick a lot of players from.

Projected Stats - 30 G, 25 A

27 - Detroit Red Wings - Maxim Mayorov, LW, Russia
They go for the skilled Russian forward in hopes that they can bring him over.

Projected Stats - 35 G, 25 A

28 - Washington Capitals - Akim Aliu, RW, OHL
Boom or bust prospect. I say his attitude causes him to bust

Projected Stats - 25 NHL games with 4 different franchises.

29 - Ottawa Senators - Brett MacLean, LW, OHL
Big, physical winger is a Bryan Murray-type player.

Projected Stats - 25 G, 20 A at his peak

30 - Edmonton Oilers - Bill Sweatt, LW, Colorado College (WCHA)
He's an unbelievably fast college player; Oilers also pick a lot of players from his program.

Projected Stats - 25 G, 20 A.

NHL drafts are always unpredictable, so I'll be surprised if I get even a quarter of these correct. I do think the Oilers will trade either the 15th or 30th pick, and at least one other 1st rounder will be traded for an established NHL player. I also think that, of the top picks, Kane and Turris will be stars, and Gagner, Azner, and Voracek will have long NHL careers. This will also turn out to be a banner year from American prospects, and though no goalies make it in the first round, at least 2 starters will emerge from what was seen as a shallow pool.

Enjoy the weekend, and get ready for 2010 when these prospects finally start hitting the ice in the NHL.

A funny thing happened on my way to the bank to cash my pay cheque

2007-03-07T13:08:00.000-07:00

As we all know, the CBA established a fixed relationship between player salaries and league-wide hockey related revenues, or HRR. Right now that relationship is 54%.

Ensuring that salaries collectively come in right at 54% requires reconciliation. The lower and upper limits on team salary caps (currently $28 and $44 million) are set based on pre-season estimates of HRR, and an escrow account withholds part of the players' salaries to aid in the reconciliation. At season's end, two things need to be brought into alignment: the league's actual HRR is calculated and multiplied by 54% to determine what player compensation should have been, and then the player salaries for the preceding season need to be raised or lowered across the board so that they match 54%.

Under this system, it's entirely possible for owners to sign players to contracts that collectively exceed 54% of HRR, in which case, the salaries are rolled-back at the end of year. And guess what: if the estimates of revenue for the current season are accurate, that's exactly what's happened.

Using Irish Blue's projected final cap numbers for each team, it's estimated that the cap hit for player contracts will total $1.258 billion, or an average of $41.9 million per team.

But if the pre-season estimates of HRR are accurate, teams will only be allowed to spend $1.08 billion on player salaries, or $36 million per team.

How to reconcile the two? Simple: player salaries would be rolled-back by 14.1%. For Ryan Smyth junkies, that means a contract with a paper salary of $5.5 million would result in a pay cheque for $4.725 million.

Oilers payroll below average
The reconciliation also helps put the Oilers player spending in perspective. Right now they're projected to finish the year at $41.9 million in cap salaries. That figure creates the illusion that they're spending close to the cap. In fact, their player compensation is below league average.

Factor in the adjustment, and what they'd actually pay would be $35 million, or roughly $1 million below the league-average team budget of $36 million. Raise or lower league revenues to change the reconciliation, and this relationship doesn't change -- the Oilers' share of player costs remains less than 1/30th of the pot. As Tyler always reminds us, it's a fixed pot, and raising one player's salary simply moves money between players, it doesn't change the total amount the owners' pay.

I always need to qualify these commentaries by restating my view that I don't think higher compensation necessarily equals higher performance. But when the team is in the top 25% for revenues, below league-average for player compensation, and out of the playoffs, you have to think that the fans who provided this spending power deserve more. I'd like to see both better investments by management, and a team that uses its higher than average revenues to deliver above-average player compensation.

In Defense Of The Ryan Smyth Trade

2007-03-01T17:59:00.000-07:00

The talk of the town this week has been the trade of career Edmonton Oiler Ryan Smyth from the only club he's ever known to the unknown territory of Long Island. Aside from a very small minority of supporters, reaction in Oil Country has ranged from outraged to disgust. Despite an excellent celebration and ceremony honoring the great Mark Messier, it has not been a good week for the Edmonton Oilers. Fans are mad as hell, and if they are to be believed, not going to take it anymore.

I'm not part of this crowd; I'm part of the few who like this trade. I explained it some over at the Battle of Alberta, but I will elaborate here.

1. The Nature of The Salary Cap and How To Properly Manage It
One of the most common reactions to the trade has been the "this wasn't supposed to happen to us anymore under the CBA" line. "This" being our stars moving on because of contract disputes. That's a bit of a misnomer. It gives every team a fair opportunity at resigning its players because it gives each team an equal amount of money to spend on player salaries. It doesn't guarantee that a player will remain with that club, just that this decision won't be dictated by club revenue. It means that star players will still leave under certain circumstances, namely if:

1. A team has managed its payroll poorly, or has already committed most of its payroll elsewhere, and does not have the money to offer a player a fair contract.
2. A player demands more money (or contract years) than the team's management feels he is worth.

In situation 2, management must make a decision as to whether or not they should overextend to reach a contract. As we're less than 2 years into the salary cap era of the NHL, there aren't many examples on which we can draw, though I suspect that someday this will be called the Patrick Elias Principle. Last year, on the heels of a strong season from the 31-year-old Elias, the New Jersey Devils resigned him to a 7 year, $6 million per year contract. Now, the Devils were already up against the cap, and had to do some nifty maneuvering to make this deal and keep all of their other key players. They might not be able to do so again. Two of their other key players, center Scott Gomez and defenseman Brian Rafalski, are unrestricted free agents. Factor in that a number of other role players are free agents, and youngsters such as Zach Parise who are due raises, and it's going to be very difficult for New Jersey to keep everyone. The Devils may end up regretting the Elias deal if it forces them to let go of Gomez, Rafalski, or Parise down the line. What does this have to do with the Smyth situation? Elias was also a 31-year-old coming off what appeared to be a career year. His signing was a bit more defensible in that the Devils have a very strong team who will contend for the Stanley Cup, but nonetheless has made it difficult for the Devils to keep their nucleus together or to bring in other top talent.

2. What Is Ryan Smyth’s Value?
The Ryan Smyth situation falls into category 2 that I mentioned above. If you look at his career numbers, he's certainly not an elite player, and it would be a stretch to call him an all-star at times. Prior to 2006-07, he had 3 30-goal seasons to his credit, despite playing at times with play-making talent like Doug Weight and Mike Comrie. Comparing him to other free agents to be, his points per game average throughout his career is just below that of Chris Drury (another great character guy), and well below that of Scott Gomez. Gomez is in the range of Calgary Flame Alex Tanguay, whose contract ($5.25 mil a year) we have been told was used as a benchmark in the Smyth’s negotiations. Interestingly, Smyth’s average lands in between that of Tanguay and that of Shane Doan, a character guy who resigned in Phoenix for a “home-town discount”, but closer to Doan’s.

Let’s examine the line:

Player Career PPG Salary Current Age
Tanguay 0.9 $5.25 27
Smyth 0.71 ??? 31
Doan 0.58 $4.55 31

Assuming Tanguay is getting paid a fair salary for a guy entering his prime years who will be the second best forward on a good team, then Smyth’s value should come in closer to the $4.75 range, maybe $5 at tops. Shane Doan has had by far the worst surrounding cast of talent for most of his career, especially his peak years, while Tanguay certainly benefited from playing with the Sakics, Hejduks, and Forsbergs of the world. Still, given their age, and the point discrepancy, I don’t think all of the intangibles in the world peg Smyth at the same value as Tanguay.

Now let’s compare him to Gomez and Drury, two of the other high-profile forwards who can be unrestricted free agents this summer.

Player Career PPG 06-07 Salary Current Age
Gomez 0.825 $5 27
Smyth 0.71 $3.5 31
Drury 0.74 $3.1 30(will be 31 in Aug)

Gomez was awarded his contract in arbitration in 2006, Smyth signed in 2005, and Drury in 2003. If this set of numbers tells you anything, it’s that Chris Drury is underpaid. He was a point a game player in the 2006 playoffs (18 in 18) and was a plus 5. Smitty put up 16 points in 24 games, and was a minus 2 despite getting 2 more minutes of ice time per game. While Drury’s career numbers probably benefit from playing with better overall talent, it’s still a stretch to say that Smyth is clearly a better player than he is. If anything, I’d call it a wash, and over the next five years I’d bet that Drury is more likely to hold up and continue to produce.

Finally, let’s compare Smyth to Daniel Briere, the late-blooming Sabres sniper who could also hit the market this summer.

Player Career PPG 06-07 Salary Current Age
Smyth 0.71 $3.5 31
Briere 0.77 $3.1 29(will be 30 in Oct)

Briere is also scoring over a point a game since coming to the Buffalo Sabres at the 2003 trade deadline. Smyth’s over the same period is about 0.84, but given the physical style he plays, he’s less likely to keep up this pace than Briere is.

3. What Would Signing Smyth Have Accomplished?
They would have tied up $5.5 million of their payroll in a borderline all-star about to hit the downside of his career. Smyth may have another good year or two left in him (probably not point a game good), but the Oil have to resign Marc-Andre Pouliot and Jarrett Stoll in 2008, and Shawn Horcoff and Joffrey Lupul (who you shouldn’t give up on after one rough season) in 2009. Let’s also not forget that Raffi Torres is a RFA this summer, and unless they lock him up to a long-term deal, will be hitting the UFA market in ’08 or ’09.

While Smyth is a better player and more valuable than everyone (except for arguably Horcoff), are you willing to bet that he will continue to be from 2008-09 on? And would you be willing to bet a no-trade clause for #94 that he will be? Signing Smyth to the deal he wanted would have limited the team’s ability to keep the aforementioned players as they were entering their prime years. For the majority of the coming five years, this money would be better tied up elsewhere. The team still has needs on defense, and after Roloson’s contract expires in 2009, they will need to sign a number one goaltender (which will likely cost them at least $4-5 million on the open market).

Let’s also not forget that the Oilers, as constituted before the trade deadline, were not a championship club. They had lost a series of parts (some key, some not) from the Stanley Cup Finalists a year before; let’s also remember that that club was just as likely going to be a one-year wonder as it was going to be a sustained contender. After all, in the San Jose series, they spent two and some overtime periods being one shot away from a 3-0 series deficit to the Sharks, which they likely wouldn’t have rebounded from.

In terms of this season, the team is hurting, and the defenders that were available on the market wouldn’t have been significant upgrades to their blueline (Zhitnik, Stuart, Norstrom), nor would they have justified the cost.

Given the state of their team, its strengths (young talent and assets) and weaknesses (NHL club core, defence), it made sense to sell instead of buy at the trade deadline in 2006. They’re at least one all-star away from putting together a championship core; Smyth tying up $5.5 mil of their payroll would have made it more difficult to get one piece on defense, and near impossible to add a second defenseman or another all-star forward to this club. Going forward with Ryan Smyth as “the franchise” would have led to another two and a half years of being entrenched in the 7-10 spot in the West, and a subsequent two and a half years of hoping to unload his albatross of a contract. Moving forward without him gives the Oilers two major advantages – payroll flexibility and increased assets (both prospects and picks).

Because they should have been sellers, Lowe deserves flack for not also moving impending UFAs Petr Sykora and Jussi Markannen.

4. Having Let Him Go, Where Do The Oilers Now Sit?
It’s unlikely that they will contend in 2007-08, but could have a good nucleus together in ’08-’09 and ’09-’10. Horcoff should be peaking during those years, and players like Hemsky, Pouliot, Stoll, and Torres, Lupul should continue to improve. Prospect at forward such as Robbie Schremp, Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nilsson, and Ryan O’Marra should continue to progress, giving the Oilers a surplus of assets to move for all-star talent, rentals to complement their core, or future assets (more prospects and picks) that will mature into talent when the aforementioned names hit free agency.

On defense, Smid, Gilbert, and Syvret will continue to mature, but the Oilers will need to add a franchise defenseman, or two bona fide top defenseman. They have depth, but they lack top-end talent.

Under the new salary cap system, teams are going to have to make tough decisions on who to keep and who to discard. It’s unlikely that a team will be able to keep more than 2-3 “big ticket” players, therefore it’s even more important that you make smart decisions about whom you give your big contracts to. The Oilers were smart in targeting Chris Pronger in the summer of 2005, since St. Louis had maneuvered themselves out of a position to keep him due to the “big ticket” contracts that Doug Weight and Keith Tkachuk were pulling in. They now have the assets to make a move the next time an all-star is forced onto the trade market because of a situation like this. It could happen, as lowetide pointed out, as early as this summer if Ottawa decides to sell Wade Redden instead of banking on having the cap space to resign him in 2008 or Tampa Bay decides that investing heavily in three players (Lecavalier, St. Louis, Richards) isn’t working out for them. And for those who doubt Lowe, let's remember that he just got three mid-first round picks (Nilsson, O'Marra, this coming year's) from New York for 20 games, (hopefully) a playoff run, and a four-month window to negotiate exclusively with Ryan Smyth. The Pronger deal may not have worked out so far they way we would have hoped, but the guy has a pretty good track record with trades.

And remember what Brian Burke said in today’s Edmonton Journal article:

The only way you can compete in a cap system is with quality young players. If you’re going to have (older) stars on your team, then you also need guys who are going to contribute at the $450,000 level. And there’s only one place you get those guys and this summer it’s in Columbus, Ohio (at the draft).

5. Moving Forward

The Oilers have three first round picks in this year’s draft, one that is seen to have good depth, though it lacks the top end talent of recent years. With those pieces, the Oilers should be able to continue to stuff the cupboard, and when the timing is right, they will have the cap space and the assets to make the moves to put together a Stanley Cup run, just like they did in 2005. If they continue to draft and trade well, they will have the cheap talent to surround their veterans with that Burke was talking about, and the flexibility to give up talent for rental players without sacrificing their future.

It’s sad to see Smyth go, but Lowe made the right move by holding his ground. Someone is going to give Ryan Smyth $5.5-6 million a year, and a couple of years from now when he’s scoring 38 points while only staying healthy for 55 games of a year, we’ll be glad it’s not the Edmonton Oilers. It may be tough to imagine a future where the Oilers have a championship club, but they have the pieces to make it happen now if they can swing the right couple of signings and trades. I have confidence in Kevin Lowe, and I look forward to seeing the Oilers back in the championship hunt sooner rather than later.

Mr. Smith Goes to Washington

2007-01-18T18:44:00.000-07:00

Think politicians lack integrity? Meet Jack Kingston.

Kingston, the Representative for Georgia's 1st Congressional district was the lone congressman to oppose a motion commending "the University of Florida Gators for their victory in the 2006 Bowl Championship Series (BCS) and for winning the national college football championship." His justification? He grew up in Athens, Georgia, home of the University of Georgia, and is an alumnus of that university. The Gators and the Bulldogs are fierce rivals, and face off annually in the World's Largest Tailgate Party - one of the most notorious rivalry games in college football.

Even though he kind of copped out and admitted to cheering for Florida over The Ohio State University (based on SEC allegiances), you nonetheless have to respect his committment to his sporting allegiances. If a motion ever comes before the Canadian Parliament to congratulate the Calgary Flames on anything besides choking yet again in the playoffs, I expect my Member of Parliament to vote against it.

The Autumn Wind Is A Pirate

2007-01-10T22:47:00.000-07:00

Gator Nation

2007-01-08T22:49:00.000-07:00

Well, the BCS got what it wanted. In creating a stand-alone national championship game, they aimed to create a college football Super Bowl.

What they got tonight was a boring, one-sided game where the product on the field failed to even approach the endless hype. So in other words, they go their Super Bowl. Only this one didn't have new commercials to keep viewers interested once the game was a foregone conclusion.

There are a number of possible angles to explain tonight's result, a 41-14 Florida win for those not following along at home.

1. Coaching
Florida was poised, focused, and determined. Ohio State was...there. I was surprised by this. While I had limited exposure to the Gators during the regular season, it didn't seem to me that they did much of anything on offense that was new. Nonetheless, Ohio State didn't seem to be able to contain them. Florida chipped away at them with mostly short-yardage plays, and the Buckeyes never made the necessary adjustments to slow them down.

Offensively, the Buckeyes didn't seem to have much of a gameplan. Some of this could be attributed to losing Ted Ginn Jr. early on, but for the most part they (again) didn't seem to make any adjustments. They didn't keep extra men in to block on passing downs, and they abandoned the run early even though a focus on the running game produced their only scoring drive.

2. Ted Ginn Jr.
His absence for most of the game obviously hurt the Buckeyes, but given all of the weapons they have on offense, you can't blame his absence for the lack of production. Also, he wouldn't have helped stopped any of the 41 points the defense gave up.

3. Hype
It's entirely possible that OSU got complacent and overconfident after six weeks of being hyped as an overwhelming favorite. Florida also used their underdog status as motivation, another credit to their coaching staff.

4. Letdown
There's an argument to be made that the Buckeyes played their national title game on November 18th against Michigan. It became clear a few weeks beforehand that, barring a major upset (which almost happened to both teams), this would be a matchup of the top two teams in the nation, both undefeated going into their season finale. Add in the rivalry element, and that game probably felt like the highest stakes either team would experience all year. After an emotional win like that, it must be tough to get up for another game, especially since there was a lot of talk about how Florida didn't deserve to be in the national title game.

5. Talent
It's possible that we misjudged how talented Ohio State actually was (and the Big Ten overall, since Michigan got rolled by USC in the Rose Bowl). The Buckeyes certainly have loads of talent, but in hindsight, it's easy to think that they were never as dominant of a team as we thought they were.

For one, who did they beat? Their first marquee win came on the road against a Texas team that had a true freshman quarterback in his second game, and was distracted by the suspension of one of their starting defensive backs a few days before the game. Their other one came at home against Michigan, in a game where they could have won big, but kept making mistakes that let the Wolverines hang around in the second half. The rest of their wins came against middling non-conference foes such as Cincinnati and Northern Illinois, and an underachieving Big Ten slate. They lucked out in not having to face conference rival Wisconsin, who lost once (to Michigan in Ann Arbor) and beat a talented Arkansas team in the Capital One Bowl.

Florida, on the other hand, plays in the much deeper SEC. They lost once, to Auburn in a game that they could have won had a controversial officials' call gone the other way, and hold wins over Sugar Bowl champion LSU, and Arkansas, whose four losses this season (including the bowl game) came against teams that will finish in the top 10 (USC, LSU, Florida, and Wisconsin). The Gators were lucky to escape with wins against Tennessee and South Carolina, but they also proved their mettle against some stiff competition.

6. Off-Day
Everyone has bad days, and 51 days of rest certainly didn't help the Buckeyes. Had this game been played December 9th, they might have won (or at least made it respectable).

I'd say the actual reason is some combination of 1,4,5, and 6. Plus the Gators are damn good. Forgot about that.

Some other thoughts:

• Credit to my dad for pointing out how it must hurt for Irish fans to see Urban Meyer win a championship just seconds after the game was over. Very true, believe me.

• If I had a vote in the Associated Press poll, I would seriously consider voting for Boise State, just because I could.

• When I am named Commissioner of All Sports, I will enact a rule forcing the college football season to end on January 1.

• I hate Emmitt Smith. Could he have been any less gracious about his school winning the championship? God. It's not he's still a player, or he had anything to do with them winning, but he kept rubbing it in to poor Eddie George. Emmitt struck me as the kind of guy who probably also spent the commercial breaks reminding George how he has three Super Bowl rings to Eddie's zero. I kind of wish they had shown clips from "Dancing With the Stars" just to shut him up. That, or that George would have punched him in the face. What a douchebag.

• I quite like Thom Brenneman as a play-by-play guy, aside from his editorializing towards the end of the Fiesta Bowl about the need for a college football playoff.

• Speaking of, doesn't every football game feel like a letdown after Boise State-Oklahoma?

Garcia? I Think He's Back In Calgary, Playing For The Stampeders

2007-01-07T11:49:00.000-07:00

Here's the ad I mentioned in yesterday's post. YouTube is the gift that keeps on giving.

LACES OUT TONY!

2007-01-06T21:23:00.000-07:00

Martin Gramatica might have some renovations in mind for his old bedroom back at his parents house.

What a finish. And the Cowboys lost, making it even better. That more than made up for the enormous dud that was the afternoon game.

One final thought: the NFL "four months ago" ad can't make it onto YouTube fast enough. None of the lines are as good as "nice pick cowah!", but it's awesome nonetheless, especially the "Garcia? I heard he's back in Calgary" bit.

All You Need To Know About the 2007 Fiesta Bowl

2007-01-02T08:28:00.000-07:00

Here's a compilation of the highlights from the final two minutes and overtime of last night's Boise State-Oklahoma game. All that's missing is the post-game marriage proposal from the Boise State running back to his cheerleader girlfriend. Yes, this game had everything.

(I've replaced the original video since it was taken down by YouTube. Astute readers will notice the physical resemblance between network anchor Scott Van Pelt (on the right) and occasional Sports Matters commenter "The Drizzler".)

Bonus footage: The wedding proposal, perhaps the most famous televised one since the Macho Man proposed to Miss Elizabeth.

In Praise of John Tesh

2006-12-29T21:58:00.000-07:00

And Roundball Rock, one of the greatest sports television themes of all time.

Talkin' Baseball

2006-12-29T12:14:00.000-07:00

Hello? Anybody still reading this site? Okay, well, for the faithful who are still checking in, I apologize for the prolonged absence and dearth of content over the past little while. I've been sidetracked by work, then family obligations over the holidays, and I assume the same applies to our other contributors.

Anyway, there has been a lot happening, especially in the world of baseball. Below are my thoughts on some of the transactions, but first, a couple of boxing-related thoughts:

1. Mike Tyson is in trouble with the law after admitting to drug possession. I'm not really sure what to add here, though you wonder when Tyson will finally hit rock bottom, and what it will look like when it does.

2. Speaking of Iron Mike, he makes a cameo in Rocky Balboa. I couldn't understand what he was saying, partly because Grabia was laughing so hard, and partly because it's hard to understand Tyson under normal circumstances. I recommend that everyone goes to see this movie. Despite the reservations expressed by the likes of Bill Simmons, I thought it was well done and thoroughly enjoyable. It was well-written and kept me engaged for the full 102 minutes, had the requisite training and fighting scenes, and unlike some of the other installments, it didn't insult my intelligence too much. So go see it, and enjoy it.

Now to baseball:

Barry Zito to the San Francisco Giants, 8 years, $126 million
When Gil Meche can command $11 million a year, it doesn't seem right to complain about any other pitcher's salary, does it? Anyway, $18 million a year for Zito seems excessive, but given the going rate for starting pitchers on the open market, it's probably fair.

My concern about Zito would be that, aside from the question of whether he can be a #1 or even a #2 starter, his numbers at home with Oakland aren't very impressive. Oakland plays in a spacious ballpark, not unlike the Giants' home park, or those of the Dodgers and Padres, where the Giants play 9 or 10 times a year. If you look at Zito's home/away splits over the past three years, he's been a better pitcher away from Oakland than he has been at home, which would argue against him becoming a more effective pitcher in bigger parks. The difference appears to be his tendency to give up more home runs at home, so if he can get that under control, you might see him post much better numbers. Still, would you wager $126 million on this happening?

I'm hoping Avi will chime in on this point with better projections and analysis than I have, but for now, my crude argument will have to do.

Jeff Suppan to the Milwaukee Brewers, 4 years, $42 million
$10 million for a #3 starter on the open market seems fair. The big question is, with Doug Davis now in Arizona, can Suppan step up and be a #2? If Ben Sheets stays healthy, I think their rotation led by him, Suppan, and Chris Capuano can compete with almost any team in the NL. If their young hitters continue to progress, this team could surprise and contend for the league championship in 2007 or 2008.

Kei Igawa to the New York Yankees, 5 years, $20 million
Counting posting fees, they will end up paying him less than half what the Red Sox will pay Daisuke Matsuzaka, making this a very good gamble. As much as I hate to admit it, the Yankees are having a very solid off-season. If Igawa can establish himself as the #4 starter, the Yankees will have an absolute steal. Even counting his posting fee, their paying just over $9 million a year for his services.

Sheff to the Tigers, Big Unit on the Move?
I love what Brian Cashman did with Sheffield, picking up his option, then flipping him to Detroit for three pitching prospects. Now, having added two starting pitchers (Igawa and Andy Pettitte), and with a few more (Phillip Hughes, Tyler Clippard, Humberto Sanchez) on the way, he's exploring his options on the trade market for Randy Johnson, who has one year left on his contract.

Intentional or not, I think that Brian Cashman has stumbled upon a brilliant strategy for building a franchise. Sign or trade for high-priced veteran all-stars, and when they start to decline and/or no longer fit your plans, trade them for prospects to stock your farm system and use the money you freed up to sign another round of all-star free agents. I think this is going to work wonders.

Texas acquires RHP Brandon McCarthy
This is my favorite move of the off-season so far. The Rangers picked up right-handed prospect Brandon McCarthy from the White Sox in a five-player trade. They gave up three prospects, including top pitching prospect John Danks, but McCarthy still looks to be the best player in the trade. He apprenticed in the bullpen last year, but is poised to move into the rotation in Arlington.

I like this move because the Rangers are adding a potential front-of-the-rotation pitcher without breaking the bank (he earns $332,000 this year) or giving up any major league talent. They now have three hard-throwing righties at the front of their rotation (McCarthy, Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla); coupled with their powerful lineup, they have a good chance of winning the AL West, especially since the A's and Angels will open the season with some serious question marks about their clubs (starting pitching depth and power hitting, and hitting overall, respectively).

Other Moves I Like
Texas taking a one-year gamble on Eric Gagne

Oakland signing Mike Piazza to replace Frank Thomas

San Francisco adding Dave Roberts to its outfield

St. Louis signing Kip Wells to a one year, $4 million deal.

The Dodgers adding Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf to its rotation.

The Padres signing Greg Maddux to replace Woody Williams in the rotation, and adding Marcus Giles at second.

The Phillies taking a gamble on Adam Eaton.

Moves I Didn't Like
The Angels "boosting" their offense by adding Shea Hillenbrand and Gary Matthews Jr.

Baltimore spending $40 million dollars to add Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, and Jamie Walker to its bullpen.

The Dodgers failing to boost their hitting.

The Astros replacing Clemens and Pettitte with Woody Williams and Jason Jennings (who might be okay).

Pretty much everything the Chicago Cubs have done.

Assumptions For What Will Happen Between Now and Opening Day
The Indians will find a closer.

The Mets will find a front-of-the-rotation starter.

Randy Johnson will be traded.

Early Picks for the Playoffs
AL: New York, Cleveland, Detroit, Texas
NL: New York, Milwaukee, St. Louis, San Diego

Vince Young Wins Football Games

2006-12-11T06:26:00.000-07:00

He pulled another one out yesterday with this overtime run. His performance all day may not have been a masterpiece, but like most Sundays (or Saturdays in the past), he made a big play when it counted.

The Basketball Christmas

2006-12-07T15:16:00.000-07:00

Today, December 7th, marks the birth of the Basketball Jesus, Larry Bird. He was born 50 years ago today in West Baden Springs, Indiana.

To celebrate, I give you two of his finest moments - the steal against the Detroit Pistons in the 1987 playoffs, and his McDonald's commercial with Michael Jordan.

B-C-Mess

2006-12-03T12:03:00.000-07:00

With USC losing yesterday, either one-loss Michigan (who already lost to #1 Ohio State) or one-loss Florida (who won the SEC) will face the Buckeyes in the BCS Championship Game. There will be a controversy no matter who is in second. If Florida gets in, people will say that they had a weaker schedule, and their loss was to a lesser team than Michigan's was. Gator advocates will claim that Michigan already lost once to OSU, and didn't even win their own conference.

As seems to happen every year, the BCS title game will leave one team on the outside looking in, and possibly more. For example, why doesn't one-loss Louisville have a claim to play in the title game?

In any case, I think it's time that we stop the annual BCS controversy. Either settle it with a playoff, or go back to the old bowl system, which at least acknowledged the subjectivity involved with picking a champion. Since I have yet to hear of a practical playoff system, I'm going to advocate the latter.

Also, did it completely escape the attention of anyone else that Oklahoma is now 11-2 after winning the Big 12 title game? They would have been 12-1 were it not for a blown call in the Oregon game. I had no idea.

If I had to rank the teams now, I would go:

1. Ohio State
2. Florida (since they won their conference)
3. Louisville (see above)
4. Michigan
5. Boise State
6. Wisconsin
7. USC
8. Oklahoma
9. LSU
10. Notre Dame
11. Arkansas
12. West Virginia
13. Auburn
14. Rutgers
15. Wake Forest
16. Texas
17. Virginia Tech
18. TCU
19. Tennessee
20. BYU
21. Nebraska
22. Oregon State
23. Boston College
24. Georgia Tech
25. California

As for how teams will actually be ranked, Florida is second in both the AP and the Coaches Poll, but my guess is that they get edged out by Michigan in the BCS standings.

Well That's A Bit Excessive...

2006-11-19T14:36:00.000-07:00

But at least there's finally some action on the free agent front.

The Chicago Cubs have signed Alfonso Soriano to an 8-year, $136 million deal.

The $17 million a salary probably isn't excessive in this year's market, but 8 years for a guy who will be 31 when spring training opens is, especially since there are doubts as to whether or not his reported age is correct.

Here's the other question Cubs fans have to ask themselves: while Soriano was probably the jewel of the 2006 free agent class, does he really make the team that much better? He doesn't address many of the team's needs, most notably pitching, an inability to get on base (especially in the leadoff position), and left-handed power. He makes them more right-handed, more powerful, and more free-swinging. That's clearly worked out well for the team in recent years.

After resigning Aramis Ramirez, their priorities should have been:

1. Depth in the rotation.
2. A leadoff man.
3. A left-handed bat to protect Ramirez and Derrick Lee.

While he's a very good player, Soriano addresses none of those needs. The Cubs will be a great softball team come April, but I don't see this move bringing them any closer to a championship.

Pyramid Power

2006-11-16T00:36:00.000-07:00

The Oilers’ stadium debate, soft-sounded after the CBA signing and re-floated yesterday, is barely beginning. There’ll be plenty of time for comment, especially since the EIG would be brave to float a proposal for City money during Council’s December budget debates (which already feature significant property tax increase), or during an election year (2007).

The owners and their friends deserve credit for avoiding the ransom-politics that defined 1990s location battles. But there seems no question that the debate over the Oilers’ future arena (where should it be located? who should pay?) is off to a muddy start. Bad facts breed poor arguments. At the risk of over-writing, here are five things I’d like to get on the table – or in some cases off the table and never to be seen again.

1. During the stadium debate, friends of the Oilers will claim economic benefits that are exaggerated or non-existent.
During the Oiler ownership crisis of 1997-98 the role was played by Rick LeLacheur, backed by a “Tourism Economic Assessment Model” provided by the Conference Board of Canada. Replete with multipliers and tertiary effects, and downplaying substitution effects (a dollar spent on a ticket is a dollar not spent at a different local business), the model allowed LeLacheur to make an astounding claim. The Oilers, he said, “contributed” $75 million to Alberta’s economy in the 1996-97 season, including $63 million in Edmonton and $20 million in taxes to all levels of government.

Anyone care to wager how large the benefit claim will be this time? My guess is $175 - 200 million – more than enough to justify a modest civic investment in the infrastructure needed to ensure the team continues to thrive. But as others have noted, there’s now a wealth of academic studies that debunk or qualify the building/franchise – economic benefit link. These include the Rappaport-Wilkerson finding that:

“Proponents of using public funds to finance stadium construction argue that the benefits from increased economic activity and increased tax revenue collection exceed the public outlays. But independent economic studies universally find such benefits to be much smaller than claimed. So does it makes sense for metro areas to use public funds to attract and retain major league sports franchises? The answer is definitely not if benefits are limited to increases in economic activity and tax revenue collection. A strong case can be made, however, that the quality-of-life benefits from hosting a major league team can sometimes justify the large public outlays associated with doing so.”

To the advocates of public funding for the new arena I have this challenge: make your case based on quality of life, or civic pride or anything, anything except the claim that a new building will cause the city and its citizens to reap an economic reward for their investment.

2. It’s true that the EIG took a risk in 1998. But they’ve been appropriately rewarded.
Cal Nichols is a stand-up guy. So are the rest of the EIG (well, the Edmonton Journal’s retiring publisher Linda Hughes is more of a stand-up gal). But unlike their hagiographers I do not believe the Oilers’ ownership is engaged in a noble economic self-sacrifice.

Let’s begin with a fact. The members of the Edmonton Investors Group did not pay $70 million for the team in 1998. Their equity investment was $35 million – the minimum allowed under league rules. The rest was borrowed.

So when Forbes puts the team’s value at $146 million, up from its 1998 assessment of $67 million, it’s clear that the members of the EIG have done well. Based on Forbes’ estimate that the team carries a $28 million debt (implying an equity value of $118 million), the EIG have seen their equity position increase 2.37 times – an average ROE of 16% a year for eight years.

There are qualifiers, of course. The Forbes’ valuations are not the same as balance sheets, cash flows and income statements. Only the owners know how well they’re doing, and we all know there were some lean years in 2002-03. But as far as we can tell, the business has always covered its cost of debt capital, and none of the owners expected this to be a dividend-paying enterprise (neither do the owners of Berkshire Hathaway). So the best way to judge their financial well-being is their equity return. What’s the beta on an equity position in a pro-sports franchise? I’ve no idea. But I’m on solid ground saying that a 16% ROE, or anything close to it, is a return that’s commensurate with the equity risk the owners undertook.

3. The “big-city / big-revenue” competitiveness worries are dead. Or should be.
In most competitive markets, having your business generate "big-city revenues" while other competitors have lower revenues would give you relatively more money to invest in your enterprise, or more money to flow to the bottom line. But the NHL is not a normal market.

The market is distorted by the player’s fixed share of hockey-related revenues, and by the revenue sharing system.

Under a CBA the biggest cost – player salaries – is a fixed-proportion of league-wide revenue. Earn more revenue and you'll ultimately pay more in salaries and more in transfers through the sharing system. Earn insufficient revenue, and your shortfall will be made up by revenue sharing. As Tom Benjamin neatly summed up, ten NHL teams, including the Oilers, were net contributors to the league's revenue-sharing system. The teams at the top of the heap paid around $10 million into the system; those at the bottom received equally substantial amounts, with $12 million going to Nashville.

The Oilers are near the salary ceiling today. A lack of revenue is not what constrains them from adding more high-end talent. Unlike the '90s, there are no "big city" teams outspending the local boys. More money in the door would not mean more money for talent, except insofar as the new revenue increased the league's total revenues and then moved the salary cap band. It would mostly mean more money in the owners’ pockets.

Can a well-run, high-revenue team still get ahead? Yes. You can still be more profitable than your peers, and have a financial cushion against setbacks. You might also have more money to engage in monument building, but presumably you’d only do that if the returns justified the expense, in which case your poorer cousins could make the same investment on borrowed funds.

Bottom line: the Oilers have all the revenue they need to field a team that’s competitive on the ice. A new building will not help them field a more talented team.

4. The EIG already receives a significant direct and indirect public subsidy from City taxpayers.
Time for a recap. The EIG struck a solid bargain in 1998. They accepted the terms of the Location Agreement and agreed to lease Northlands Coliseum for $1 a year until 2004. In return, they received:

all concession revenues for Oilers games,
parking revenues north of 118 Avenue,
$2.2 million of the $2.8 million ticket surcharge that formerly went to the City,
ownership of the naming rights to the building (the rights were sold to Skyreach for $1.2 million a year, and later to Rexall).

Northlands Park was still responsible for operations and maintenance for the building (then a $17 million annual cost), and received revenue from non-hockey events (then $12 million). The City agreed to cover Northlands’ $2.4 million shortfall.

Do the math: under the agreement the municipal government was providing the team with a direct cash transfer of $4.6 million a year (ticket surcharge and net cost of the facility), and incurring an opportunity cost from the foregone revenues associated with naming rights, parking, concessions and a market-rent. And by keeping the building under third-party ownership, the EIG sidestepped the property tax bill. It’s worth noting that Northlands pays the City just $1 per year for the land lease for all its facilities.

Despite the threat of the team’s imminent departure if the EIG deal didn’t go through, the arrangement won only a narrow majority vote from City Council.

Since then, not much as changed. A major renovation was completed at the arena in 2001. It included 11 new suites, the score clock, seat replacements, television lighting and roof work. The costs were shared between Northlands and the Oilers. Northlands also receives federal and provincial infrastructure grants.

Meanwhile the Northlands agreement with the City has been extended to 2013. Under the current terms, the City has agreed to index its $2.2 million contribution to inflation – so the cost to taxpayers is already set to increase. And the EIG’s deal with Northlands has been extended to 2014, continuing the flow of concession, parking, advertising, sponsorship, suite sales, ticket surcharges and Oiler game revenue to the team. The EIG agreed under its new deal to contribute $878,166 per year towards operating costs (a payment that’s also indexed) and pay $270,272 a year for the new scoreboard (if they move, the payment is reduced).

My take: if we’re going to talk about public funding for a new building, let’s include in the discussion all the forms of public money that taxpayers are investing through the current deals.

5. The CBA gives the owners a strong incentive to find external financing for a new building.
The CBA spends 25 pages on the definition of hockey-related revenue (HRR). It is heart of the deal – the base for calculating the dollar figure that drives what the player’s will earn collectively and individually under the cap system. At current revenue levels the players get 54% of the total. If the league brings in $50 million more in ticket sales the players get $27 million and the owners get $23 million.

No definition is exhaustive, but the definition of HRR is meant to cover virtually every source of revenue received by a team or the league, and if significant new revenue sources are discovered during the agreement, the owners and players are supposed to negotiate them into the HRR definition.

But there are exceptions built into the deal, and they’re what will drive the owners to find every last source of public financing they can for the stadium project.

For example, teams only have to include 65% of revenue from luxury box sales in club-affiliated arenas in the definition of HRR (100% of luxury box ticket sales are included). There are 39 suites and 10 skyboxes today. If the owners can add 10 more and lease them for a total of $1 million a year they’ll get to pocket $350,000 before thowing the rest into the league-wide HRR calculation. All other things being equal, they should also retain the $299,000 that’s their share of the HRR value. Keeping 65% of the money is a lot better than keeping 46%.

As sweet as that is, it’s not where the big money is. The HRR also excludes revenue from the sale or leasing of real estate. If the EIG owned or controlled the building and were able to rent it out to other entities or for events, that revenue is protected for the owners.

But the bonanza is getting someone else to pay for the land, stadium and infrastructure around it. Why? Because it’s not counted as hockey-related revenue.

HRR does not include:

“50(1)(b)(xv) Any thing of value received in connection with the design or construction of a new or renovated arena or other Club facility including, without limitation, receipt of title to or a leashold interest in real property or improvements, reimbursements of expenses related to any such project, benefits from project-related infrastructure improvements, or tax credits or abatements, so long as such things of value or other revenues are not reimbursements for any operating expenses of the Club."

You won’t hear a criticism of the EIG from me. They are only doing what any other rational actor would do: responding to incentives. There is probably no stronger incentive for owners than the creation of revenues that don’t count as HRR. If you’re going to make the effort to earn a dollar, would you rather end up with a dollar or with 46-cents? Just don't expect me to give up that dollar without a fight.

One Expensive Conversation

2006-11-14T23:11:00.000-07:00

The Boston Red Sox have won the right to negotiate with Japanese superstar pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. The cost of this exclusive window of negotiation: $51 million.

The Sox will pay this fee to the Seibu Lions, Matsuzaka's current club, if they agree to a contract within the prescribed 30 day time frame. Not a single penny of that $51 million goes towards his salary, so it's likely that if a deal gets done, it will cost the Sox more than $100 million dollars, since I can't see them agreeing to anything less than a 5 year, $50 million deal. On the surface, this seems like a crazy deal to make for a player who has never pitched in the majors, but let's take a closer look at the pros and cons.

Pros
• As Peter Gammons wrote in his blog today, this puts the Sox on the map in the Far East, which they see as a booming market for talent in the coming decade.

• Because of this, if Matsuzaka pans out, it not only makes them more attractive to other players, but the $51 million investment will probably be recovered (and then some) through increased broadcasting revenues, licensing, and merchandise sales in the area.

• The guy is 26 years old, a proven all-star in Japan, and was lights out in the World Baseball Classic (he was named tournament MVP). He should be entering his prime years in the pros.

Cons
• You know who else excelled in the WBC: Hee Seop Choi. Success in international play doesn't translate to success in MLB.

• You never know how anyone will react to the high pressure atmosphere in Boston. Language/cultural barriers could make it more difficult to adjust. When you factor in the financial investment it will take to bring him over, Matsuzaka will be under a whole lot of pressure.

• As a corollary to the previous point, and relating to the second point in the pro column, if things go badly for Matsuzaka in Boston, and the fans give him the rough treatment, it could discourage other players from the Far East from signing in Boston.

With three points in each the pro and con column, I guess I'm on the fence as far as this one goes. On the whole though, I feel optimistic about the opportunity and possibility of signing this guy. At 26, he has more upside than any starting pitcher on the free agent market (with the possible exception of Barry Zito). Even though he's never pitched in North America, I'd much rather invest $10-12 million a year in this guy in the hopes that he pans out than I would in a pitcher who's proven his mediocrity over time (the Matt Clement signing comes to mind).

Building a championship club requires you to take risks. The Red Sox wouldn't have won the 2004 World Series without taking two major risks:

1. Trading Nomar at the deadline for two light-hitting, defensively-sound infielders (Cabrera and Mientkiewicz).

2. Going further back, trading two of their top prospects to Montreal following the 1997 season for Pedro Martinez, who while he was entering his prime, was also headed for free agency the following year.

Is a 26-year old front of the rotation pitcher worth a $100 million gamble? I say so. I hope they can get a deal done; I'm already fantasizing of a Schilling-Beckett-Lester-Papelbon-Matsuzaka rotation. Bring it on.

Elections Matter

2006-11-07T18:33:00.000-07:00

Our American readers (and Canadian political nerds like myself) are definitely following the U.S. mid-term election results as they come in. Sports fans should also keep an eye on former Tennesse Volunteers and NFL quarterback Heath Shuler, running as a Democrat in North Carolina's 11th congressional district, and Hall of Fame wide receiver Lynn Swann, running for Governor of Pennsylvania. The former is seen as having a good chance of winning, while the latter is probably toast.

A couple of other sports connections that I know of:

• Incumbent Virginia Senator George Allen is the son of the football coach of the same name. He's in a tight race for reelection.

• Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chaffee used to work as a blacksmith at horse racing tracks, including Northlands Park in Edmonton.

I'm sure there are lots of other sports connections, but I don't have the time to look them up.

Oh, and thank goodness that CNN just showed the Mellencamp Chevy ad. I've been experiencing serious post-World Series withdrawal.

From Ales to Tjarnqvist

2006-10-30T23:04:00.000-07:00

Who’s the most popular Oiler? Well, Ethan Moreau rode the squees of dozens to win the Hot Off (leaving MacTavish supporters fuming). Fernando galvanized a whole city with his pants. And when he’s not dodging creepy offers from Steve Staios, Joffrey Lupul shows up at places like Save On handing out autographs to the masses. If you care for that sort of thing, there’s at least three pages of ‘answers’ to the question up at HF.

But squees are hardly satisfying as a measure of popularity. I’d rather follow the money.

As part of the nearly ubiquitous Power of Pink campaign, the Oilers recently donated autographed helmets, ballcaps, pink ties and sticks to an online auction. Eleven players provided game-used sticks from last Saturday’s match against Detroit. Both Jean-Francois Jacques and Jan Hejda donated sticks as well, but theirs are rather forlornly listed as “game-ready,” which is more that you can say for the players.

As an exercise in perfect competition, this could hardly be better: the product is homogeneous save for the distinguishing signature, the bidders all have perfect information, and entry and access are levelled. So without further preamble, here are eleven Oilers ranked from most to least popular, as measured by the pocketbook a half hour before bids closed (unfortunately, the final numbers aren't archived online):

	# Bidders	Price
Hemsky	32	$610
Smyth	24	$560
Sykora	22	$500
Moreau	19	$455
Roloson	24	$405
Smith	18	$415
Pisani	25	$380
Thoresen	26	$325
Staios	16	$250
Bergeron	12	$205
Winchester	11	$165
Tjarnqvist	11	$150

Red Auerbach Passes Away

2006-10-28T20:44:00.000-06:00

The great Arnold "Red" Auerbach, architect of the Boston Celtics dynasty, has passed away following a heart attack at the age of 89.

There's a lot to say about the man who either coached or put together 16 championship clubs, and continued to serve in the capacity of President for the club that he has been associated with for over 50 years. He is probably the figure most associated with the Celtics, and the image of him puffing on a victory cigar will continue to be embedded in the memory of basketball fans.

This is sad to hear, and we will miss you greatly, Red.

I may write more later, but I'm not sure what I have to add to the other stories that are out there.

World Series 2006: Right Here, Right Now

2006-10-27T11:40:00.000-06:00

The World Series trophy will be in the building tonight as the St. Louis Cardinals have a chance to clinch the series at home. After the Detroit Tigers (literally) threw Game 4 away, the Cards now hold a 3-1 series lead, and need only to win one of the next three games to win the franchise's 10th World Series crown, which would be second only to the New York Yankees.

The Cardinals finished the regular season with 83 wins, which means that if they can close this series out, they will gain the distinction of being the World Series champion with the lowest regular season win total, displacing the 1987 Minnesota Twins (who had 84, and beat the Cardinals in the World Series). However, we shouldn't assume that it is a sure thing they'll close it out. As the Fox Network pointed out mere seconds after Adam Wainwright closed out Game 4, the last time the Cardinals held a 3-1 lead in the World Series, they ended up losing (1985 against the Royals).

A few other reasons why Detroit could still come back:

• They should have the advantage in starting pitching for the next two games. Aside from his flat performance in Game 1, Justin Verlander has been better all year than his Game 5 counterpart has (Jeff Weaver). Game 6 will probably see up-and-down rookie Anthony Reyes go for the Cards, while Detroit will send Kenny Rogers and his 23 inning scoreless streak to the hill. If we get to a Game 7, Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter will give his team the advantage on paper over Nate Robertson, but anything can happen in a Game 7.

• It's unlikely that they'll keep making the same type of errors that have killed them thus far, especially in Game 4. If not for Rodney's throwing error, Granderson slipping in centerfield, and Monroe misjudging the liner in the 8th inning, the Tigers would have taken last night's game, and the series would be even. Detroit is a better team than that, and they won't continue to make these kinds of mistakes.

• Their bats have started to come around. Game 4 was their biggest offensive output of the series (4 runs).

The Cardinals' hopes for clinching tonight rest on reclamation project Jeff Weaver. It would be fitting if he can pitch them to a title, since in many ways he is a symbol for how the Cardinals' season has gone. Weaver was once a 'can't miss' prospect, just like the Cardinals were a can't miss team this year. After struggling and being given up on (Weaver when he was waived by the Angels at mid-season, the Cardinals as they collapsed down the stretch), things have come together at the right time for both of them. While Weaver hasn't been dominant (though he's yet to give up more than 3 runs in any of his 4 playoff starts), he's been good enough to keep his team in every game. That's a good way to sum up the Cardinals. They're not a dominant team, nor will they go down as a memorable champion if they win. But they have been good enough. And that's really all that matters.

If the weather permits, enjoy tonight's game.

Short Cuts II: "I'm not Mike Tyson"

2006-10-25T22:52:00.000-06:00

"It's not about the boxing"
Those were the words of California boxing promoter Medi Vakili as he defended "Mike Tyson's World Tour" following its opening night in Youngstown, Ohio. The Plain Dealer dubbed it Dancing with the Star, as Tyson faced off for four rounds with 292-pound sparring partner Corey Sanders. The 'fight' didn't begin until 12:15 in the morning, and fans began chanting expletives after the first round. "I like to think it's about the opportunity to meet Mike in places where he has not fought. It's about a whole lot of fun," said the post-ironic Vakili.

In the days leading up to the event, Tyson's desire to fight female boxer Ann Wolfe was widely reported: "She's such a prominent, dominant woman in the boxing field." Despite outweighing her by up to 70 pounds, the boxer assured the public there'd be no risk to Wolfe: "It's all fun. I'm not Mike Tyson. I'm not 20 years old. I'm not going to smash anybody. I'm not going to talk about smashing anybody's brains. You're not going to see that guy no more." Sigh. If only that were true. But to illustrate what that halcyon world might look like, I've chosen the photo at left of Mike Tyson with Aaron and Nick Carter at a 2003 party at the Neverland Ranch. Movin' on...

There Must Be An Election
A more accurate illustration of Tyson's fight garb is the image at right. Look closely and you'll see that the fighter is endorsing Michael Steele for U.S. Senate. Currently serving as Lieutenant Governor, Steele was the first black elected to state-wide office in Maryland. Just to confuse Canadians, Steele's a Republican, although you can search high and low on his campaign web-site before figuring that out.

Meanwhile, rained-out starter Jeff Suppan has been filming an attack ad for the courageously-named Missourians Against Human Cloning (they went with the much snappier web-address nocloning.org). Suppan's 10-seconds of fame consist of the following message: "Amendment 2 claims it bans human cloning, but in the 2,000 words you don’t read, it makes cloning a constitutional right. Don’t be deceived."

I'm not deceived: I believe Jeff Suppan hasn't read the 2,000 word amendment. In fact, it brings back fond memories of John Crosbie's honesty in '88 when he stated the obvious, that he hadn't read the full text of the Free Trade Agreement. But I digress. Suppan is joined in the ad by Mike Sweeney, Kurt Warner and Jesus Christ (James Caviezel). Ever the diplomat, Tony La Russa avoided being drawn into a controversy: "Our organization encourages guys to get involved in something beyond just baseball. I just like the fact that guys make a commitment."

My take's simple: everyone should get involved in politics, but why the hell should I care what Jeff Suppan thinks about stem cells? The pro-Amendment side at least trailed out a celebrity with a link to the issue -- Michael J Fox -- but even then I'd rather see researchers, doctors, ethicists and religious leaders battle this one out.

And tying this all together in one neat package: Fox is also stumping for Democrat Ben Cardin. And where is Cardin running? In Maryland, against Michael Steele. The solution is obvious. Let's resolve the battle over Amendment 2 in the ring: Tyson v Fox. Twelve rounds. Winner gets the stem cells.

World Series 2006: We've Only Just Begun

2006-10-25T11:17:00.000-06:00

Just a few comments today:

• Last night was an absolute gem by Chris Carpenter. Best stat of the night: 82 pitches. That will be important if La Russa needs to/wants to bring him back on short rest for Game 6.

• Looking at the weather in St. Louis, I'm not sure that we're going to get in a game tonight, or even tomorrow. This is a plus for the Cardinals; if Game 5 gets pushed back to Friday (a rain delay tonight or tomorrow would do that), Jeff Weaver can pitch on regular rest. On the other hand, given the way he struggled with the cold in Detroit, it may be best to just skip him and give Anthony Reyes another turn.

• A rainout today would especially help the Tigers, given that they went through most of their bullpen last night.

• Even though they trail, Tigers fans shouldn't be worried. The top of their order will come around soon, and Jeremy Bonderman (and Justin Verlander next game) have electric stuff. They're good enough to single-handedly shut down the opposition on any given night.

• A great performance and a win by Jeff Suppan tonight would enhance his reputation as a money pitcher in the playoffs, and as Buster Olney pointed out today, increase his value on the open market this winter. A win tonight might also earn him the designation of "a poor man's John Smoltz", at least in these circles. It would also increase the odds that someone will regret giving him a 4-year, $40 million contract about a month from now.

• As for the lineups, I can't see Detroit making any changes to their starting eight, though they could make changes to the batting order. As for the Cardinals, I'm guessing La Russa goes with Chris Duncan in leftfield against the righthanded Bonderman. Your guess is as good as mine as to who out of Wilson, Encarnacion and Taguchi will get the call in rightfield.

• This series is far from over, but it's also obvious that Detroit needs a win tonight (or whenever Game 4 happens) or else they'll be in a world of trouble. Because of this, it will be interesting to see how patient Leyland will be with Bonderman if he struggles.

• Finally, there was a noticeable lack of John Mellencamp in last night's broadcast. That didn't impress me.

Enjoy the game, and feel free to use this thread to comment through the day and the game.

World Series 2006: The Gambler

2006-10-24T11:13:00.000-06:00

There’s not much left to say about the Kenny Rogers incident (at least until the Oliver Stone movie comes out). He may have had pine tar on his hand, he may have had dirt, he may have had something else. More importantly, it may or may not have mattered that much. Kenny was just as lights out after washing off his hands as he was during the first inning (and the rest of the post-season for that matter).

What I find most interesting about this situation is seeing how people react on an individual level. To channel Chuck Klosterman for a paragraph, this is an example of why sports matter (get it?), because how people reacted to this, and how they passed judgment on Kenny Rogers tells you a lot about someone’s worldview. Most people reacted in one of two ways. They either expressed some skepticism about the events, but ultimately decided that while it looked suspicious, that the umpires and the Cardinals’ manager probably would have called for further action (or thrown him out) if he was obviously cheating, or people decided that Kenny Rogers cheated and Major League Baseball willingly turned a blind eye. The former group of people tend to be optimists. While they may have a degree of cynicism to their worldview, they ultimately believe (or want to believe) that people are good, unless proven otherwise. The latter group tend to be pessimists, and take a negative view of human nature. At the first hint of suspicion, they decide that Kenny Rogers must have cheated. This same test could apply to people’s opinion about Barry Bonds, who has never failed a drug test that we know of. As for my personal opinion, I think that if Rogers was really cheating, it would have been caught before now. Given the amount of scouting and game-tape viewing that goes on, it’s unfathomable that nobody would have picked up on this until now.

Some people will continue to blame Major League Baseball, or blame Tony La Russa for not pushing this further if the Cardinals lose the series. Not me. I blame Yadier Molina. That’s right, if it weren’t for Yadier Molina, the Kenny Rogers story wouldn’t be anything more than a blip on the media’s radar.

After getting shut down for 8 innings, the Cardinals bats came alive in the 9th inning of Game 2. They staged a two-out rally against Tigers closer Todd Jones, scoring a run and loading the bases before Molina grounded hard to short to end the game. Jones has looked shaky in both games thus far – can you ever remember a closer getting the hook with 2 outs in the 9th and his team trailing by 6? – and came very close to blowing Game 2 and probably the entire series. Had Molina blooped a single, the game would have been tied, and Jones would have been a dead man walking on the mound. If the Cardinals had come back and win, this series would be over. How could the Tigers come back from a crushing loss like that? They would have been done in 4. Now, thanks to Molina’s ground out, they still have life, and could very well win this series without having to come back home.

That being said, Jones’ shakiness has to be a concern for the Tigers. Everything else is in place for them to win. They send Nate Robertson to the hill tonight against Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter in what should be a closer matchup than people think, since St. Louis has trouble against left-handed pitching, then match up fireballer Jeremy Bonderman (who nearly no-hit the Yankees two weeks ago) against Jeff Suppan. They’re getting enough hitting, and have the personnel and the manager to thrive in National League ball. And if the game gets turned over to Rodney, Zumaya, and Jones, the Tigers should (in theory) win. For the Cardinals to win, they need Carpenter and Suppan to outclass their opponents, their hitters to take advantage of opportunities with men on base, and the bullpen to hold on for dear life. Frankly, I’m not sure they can win it if the series goes back to Detroit.

A few final points:

• La Russa’s one managing mistake in Game 2 was not pinch-hitting Chris Duncan for either Preston Wilson (who got beaned) or Yadier Molina (who grounded out to end the game).

• Juan Encarnacion is the weak link for the Cards, both in the field and at the plate. I assume he’ll get better in the field at home, since he’s familiar with that park, but he also needs to start hitting the ball if St. Louis is going to win this series.

• After the way Jeff Weaver pitched, I’m not so sure that La Russa won’t bring him back on short rest in Game 5. In any case, I have never seen a pitcher struggle with the cold as much as Weaver did in Game 2, so if he does start another game, it should be in St. Louis (unless a heatwave overtakes Detroit in the next five days).

Enjoy the game tonight.

Insert Chunky Soup Joke Here

2006-10-23T07:15:00.000-06:00

Shawne Merriman Suspended

2006-10-22T20:20:00.000-06:00

Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman has been suspended for steroid use. Next to Ricky Williams, Merriman has to be the biggest name that I can think of to get busted for steroids. That is, if people have actually heard of him, which they should have given that he had 10 sacks as a rookie last year and had posted 5.5 through the first seven games of this season.

It's been a good weekend for baseball, what with the world series starting, a new labor deal around the corner, and an athlete from another sport making headlines for steroids for a change.

World Series 2006: Night Moves

2006-10-22T17:17:00.000-06:00

Well, maybe this will wake people up. For at least one night, everyone was wrong about the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Tigers could still come back and win this series in short order; their pitching is good enough that they can reel off four wins in a row at any time, even if it means going through the Cardinals’ two best starters (Carpenter and Suppan) in Busch Stadium. However, if game one is any indication, the Cardinals are sure as hell going to make them earn it if they do end up winning the series.

A convincing Cardinals win is the best thing that Major League Baseball could have asked for. A Cardinals squeaker would have been written off as a fluke. A 7-2 blowout says this team is good enough to compete for every game of the series.

I still say the Tigers win, and if Game 1 caused me to waver in my prediction, it did so to the extent that I might now say that the Tigers will win in 6 instead of 5. But the media and the public had all but handed the series to the Tigers, and I suspect that a lot of people tuned out because of that. It’s unfortunate if they did, because this series should offer a lot to get people interested. In particular:

• A battle between two historic, proud franchises. Baseball’s history is the one asset that it has a distinct advantage in as compared to other sports. Both of these teams have over 100 years of history, and in that century, they have a combined 27 World Series appearances, and following the conclusion of this matchup, 14 championships between them. The Cardinals rank 2nd in World Series wins (9) and are tied for third in appearances (17). The Tigers rank 8th in wins (4) and appearances (10). As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, they have matched up twice in the World Series (going seven games each time), with each of the teams taking one. We haven’t even talked about the great players who have suited up for these franchises, but the names of Gibson, Musial, Hornsby, Kaline, Greenberg and Cobb is a good place to start.

• Out of this series, we’ll get to add at least one name to that list: Albert Pujols. The power-hitting Cardinals first baseman is considered the best player in the game (unless you’re one of the few remaining ARod apologists) and should be entering his prime. This series is a perfect chance to showcase him to the viewing public.

• On the Tigers side, they may lack a true franchise player, but the powerful young arms of Bonderman, Verlander, and Zumaya should intrigue. The latter two can hit 100 mph on the radar gun, and the former is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game. Actually, it might be a good thing if people missed Verlander’s performance last night, but he should be better in Game 5.

These two franchises have strong followings (especially the Cardinals). I just hope that it’s more than these two fan bases and the hardcore fans of the game who tune in for this series.

A few comments on last night’s show:

• Major League Baseball and the Players’ Association have apparently hammered out a five-year labor deal, as reported on the air last night by Ken Rosenthal. Where the heck did this come from? What is the world coming to when baseball has labor peace? In all seriousness, though, great news. I don’t remember the last time there wasn’t the threat of a disruption when a labor deal was coming up for a renewal, possibly because the last time was about 10 years before I was born.

• Great touch with Bob Seger singing “America the Beautiful”. When they brought him out, my first thought was “I hope he plays ‘Night Moves’ afterwards”. While that didn’t happen, Fox closed their broadcast with that song, which was awesome.

• If we’re going to continue with the trend of local artists doing the national anthem, Michael McDonald damn well better be performing once the series moves to St. Louis.

• I can’t get enough of the Chevy ads with John Mellencamp, but they’re really missing the boat by not making an ad with baseball highlights specifically for the World Series.

And the game itself:

• Anthony Reyes’ performance has to be causing Tony La Russa to think about what to do for Game 5. The thought was that for Games 5, 6, and 7 (if necessary), he’d go with Weaver, Carpenter, and Suppan all on short rest. Now, after the kid pitched 8 innings of 2 run ball, he has to bring Reyes back for Game 5, doesn’t he?

• Detroit didn’t show the same type of plate discipline that they did in the ALDS and ALCS. That will be a problem if they don’t sort it out.

• If Rolen can hit the high fastball off of Verlander, you have to think he’s going to be able to do it off of the other Tigers starters, right?

• Speaking of the Tigers starters, I still think that any hope St. Louis has of winning this series rests on getting to them and building a lead in the first 5 innings. If they’re not trailing after 6 innings, the Tigers aren’t losing.

And tonight’s game:

• Kenny Rogers in 2-0 and hasn’t given up a run in 15 innings in his two starts at Comerica. He’s really feeding off the crowd, and that makes him more dangerous than usual. The Tigers need this win, and I think he’ll deliver. Unless Jeff “Dream” Weaver (who the crowd will be riding all night) pitches a gem of his own, this series is headed back to St. Louis all tied up.

World Series 2006: Let's Party Like It's 1968

2006-10-21T12:40:00.000-06:00

Before we get on to the World Series, a few comments about Game 7 of the NLCS:

• It was a legitimately exciting game that featured a few memorable moments. While it might not be on par with Game 7 of the 2001 World Series (D-Backs over Yanks) or Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS (sigh, the Yanks over the BoSox), but it was one of the better ones that I’ve seen. It’s rare that a Game 7 lives up to the hype and anticipation that naturally comes along with it, but this one did.

• I can’t say this enough - the Endy Chavez catch is one of the best plays I’ve ever seen. One thing that I didn’t fully appreciate until the 10th viewing or so is how he immediately fires a bullet to Jose Reyes who then relays to first to double-up Rolen. It was a perfectly timed catch followed up immediately by a perfect throw. Also, I thought the Cards were done after that play (which was the 4th or 5th time that I’d written them off in the NLCS. It’s not very often that teams can come back after a huge play like that goes against them).

• The catch reminded me of one of the all-time great moments in baseball. In Game 7 of the 1955 World Series between the Brooklyn Dodgers and the New York Yankees, Dodgers left fielder Sandy Amoros made a diving catch on what seemed like a sure extra base in the bottom of the 6th. He recovered and doubled-up the Yankee runner at first, and the Dodgers held on for a 2-0 win. I’m probably the only person under 60 who immediately thought of this (except for maybe Bob Costas), but it’s true.

• I don’t want to jump on the anti-Bill Simmons bandwagon, since I still largely enjoy his writing, but I didn’t enjoy the constant NL bashing in his Game 7 diary. This is an angle he’s beat into the ground over the past few years. Sure the NL is in a down-cycle, but in every sport the different leagues/conferences have imbalances of power at different times. In the NBA, the West has been considered the far deeper and more talented conference ever since MJ’s retirement following the 1998 championship win. From the mid-1980s until the mid-1990s, the NFC won 13 consecutive Super Bowls. Since then, the AFC has won 7 of 9, and in one of those losses, the AFC champ (Tennessee in 1999) was half a yard away from winning the game when time ran out.

It’s worth noting that Simmons constantly mentions the AFC’s inter-conference superiority, but he never resorts to calling the NFC a Quadruple-A conference. Here’s an interesting stat: in the same period that the AFC has won 7 of 9 Super Bowls, the AL has won 6 of 9 World Series. Not much difference. Going a step further, if you take away the matchups that involved the Yankees dynasty (who won 4 times in 5 tries), it’s an even 3 wins for the AL and 3 for the NL in World Series matchups since the 1994 strike, and in one of the AL wins (the Angels in 2002), it went to 7 games.

Here’s my issue – even if this isn’t as epic as the Yankees/Red Sox LCS battles, it’s still two teams fighting to be the best in their league, and for the right to play for the World Series. And they played a hell of a game. Anyone who dismisses that because the NL is the weaker overall league might as well say that this game never mattered because the winner of the AFC that year was doomed to lose to the budding Dallas Cowboys dynasty in any case.

A great game is a great game, and a great series is a great series, even if the teams involved don’t look to have much of a chance beyond that round.

Oh, and if Simmons wants to belittle the NL, he should spend less time making fun of Jeff Suppan and more time pointing out how even this year’s mediocre Red Sox team managed to go 16-2 in interleague play.

Now, on to the World Series.

Detroit Tigers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
It’s the long awaited rematch of the 1934 and 1968 Series. The Cardinals took the first matchup, and the Tigers took the second round, setting up a rubber match that is 38 years in the making.

Interestingly, these teams seem to meet only in times of great social upheaval. The Great Depression was near its peak in 1934, and opposition to the Vietnam War crested in 1968. Now, these teams meet again as cynicism and frustration with the War in Iraq continues to swell, and the Republican coalition that has dominated American politics for the past 12 years shows signs of fracturing and losing its grip on power in next month’s election. So let this be a lesson – in times of change, you can be sure that the Tigers and the Cardinals will be playing each other in the World Series. If you ask me, this should be the subject of David Halberstam's next book.

Anyway, on to the series itself.

Everyone is conceding this series to the Tigers, and there are compelling reasons to do so:

• The Tigers have a pitching advantage both in the starting rotations and the bullpen. This advantage is increased due to the amount of rest that the Tigers have had.

• The Tigers have shown uncharacteristic plate discipline through the first two rounds of the playoffs.

• The one area where you could give St. Louis an advantage is at the plate, but several of their key players (Pujols, Eckstein, Edmonds, Rolen) all have lingering injuries that are affecting their productivity.

However, St. Louis has proven that they have guts, and that they can find ways to win. I’ve written them off several times down the stretch and through the playoffs, and they’ve proven me wrong each time.

Prediction
The Tigers look too strong, too deep, too….everything. The only thing the Cardinals are too much of is banged up.

I don’t care who wins this, but I am rooting for the following things to happen:

• The games be exciting, regardless of how long the series lasts.
• Joel Zumaya and his 100 mph fastball treat Scott Spiezio’s dyed-red soulpatch as a bulls-eye.
• Jim Leyland takes a queue from the Mexican national soccer team’s coach and begins smoking in the dugout.

As former Sports Matters contributor Kevin Kimmis gleefully pointed out in an email, I am now 1 for 6 with my predictions in this playoff round. Given that I’ve proven that I’m not terribly adept at predicting the winners, it stands to reason that I should pick the Cardinals for two reasons:

1. To spite Kevin, since I seem to have pretty decent jinxing abilities.
2. Nobody else is picking them, so I’ll look smart if I pick them and they somehow pull out a win.

However, I can’t envision a scenario where the Redbirds win that doesn’t involve injuries requiring Tommy John surgery to multiple Tigers pitchers or a three-way infield collision between Pudge, Placido Polanco and Carlos Guillen that knocks each of them out for at least a few games. St. Louis has had a good run, but it’s going to come to a screeching halt in a hurry.

Tigers in 5.

MVP: Justin Verlander

The Catch: Endy Chavez Version

2006-10-20T21:48:00.000-06:00

I'll have a baseball post up before Game 1 of the World Series, but for now, here's the memorable catch by Endy Chavez from last night's game.

5 Questions About Week 7 of the NFL

2006-10-20T20:27:00.000-06:00

1. Should We Crown The Bears?
Thanks for the suggestion Dennis Green, but I don’t think we’re ready to do that quite yet. I’m also not ready to write them off though. Personally, I didn’t learn anything new about the Bears from Monday’s game, but I did have a few existing beliefs reinforced, mainly that:

• Rex Grossman is a shaky quarterback.
• The Bears have a monster defense.
• Devin Hester is dangerous with the ball in his hands.

A lot of people will probably use this game to justify their pre-existing opinions about the team. Bears doubters will say that this exposes them as a mediocre team that has beat up on vastly inferior competition; supporters will say that it proves that their defense can compensate for an average at best offense. I say that we can’t properly evaluate them yet. Every quarterback and every team has off days; we have to wait and see how they hold up against a tough stretch of opponents before we decide if they’re for real or not.

2. Can Cincinnati Get Back on Track?
After a 3-0 start, the Bengals got waxed by the Patriots three weeks ago. Coming off a bye, they lost on Sunday to the previously winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, they have to regroup and try and hold off the streaking Carolina Panthers at home.

Carolina’s a simple team to break down – when Steve Smith is out of the lineup, they’re 0-2, but when he’s in the lineup, they’re 4-0. He’ll play on Sunday, so the numbers favor the Panthers, even on the road.

Rudi Johnson was shut down by the Bucs D last week, and if that happens again, the Bengals will drop their third straight. If they can get him back on track (over 80 yards), they'll win.

3. How Will The Unbeaten and the Winless Do This Week?
Two unbeatens remain - Indianapolis and Chicago – while Oakland is the lone winless team left. Da Bears get a bye, while Indianapolis hosts Washington and Oakland hosts Arizona.

I’m giving the Redskins a decent chance at upsetting the Colts since Indy’s run defense ranks near the bottom of the league. Clinton Portis could shred them for 150+ yards, keeping his team in the game. However, the ‘Skins’ secondary will have to step up if they’re going to have a chance to pull off the upset in the dome.

As for Oakland, they could win for the simple fact that Arizona is probably still reeling after their Monday night collapse. Throw in a new guy calling the plays, and it could be a rocky game for the Cardinals.

4. Bruce Gradkowski?
I say he’s for real. For one, he’s from a MAC school (Toledo), so he has a great pedigree. Since the 1999 draft, that conference has produced three solid starting quarterbacks (Chad Pennington, Byron Leftwich, Ben Roethlisberger), which is more than any other conference has in this period of time. In his first two starts, he’s lifted a previously dormant offense to one upset, and nearly pulled off another one, both over playoff-caliber teams. So I’m willing to say that this kid will be around for a while, even though he’ll get roughed up by Philly’s defense this weekend.

5. What’s the Biggest Game of the Week?
I’m going with the Monday nighter between the Giants and the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams come in at 3-2, so a win to keep up with the division-leading Eagles is imperative. If the Giants win, they’ll be in excellent shape, sitting at 3-0 in division play with road wins over the Eagles and the Cowboys and a home win over Washington. The Cowboys are 1-1 in the division, with a win over Washington and a loss in Philly to their name. They need this win at home more than the Giants do, or else they’ll be looking up in the division the rest of the way. Fortunately for them, they stumbled upon a recipe for success in the second half of their game last week – throw to T.O. He caught three touchdowns, and will certainly be demanding the ball again. The key to this game for me comes down to the star player on each offense. Will T.O. shred the Giants secondary for a few big plays and a score or two, or will it be Tiki Barber running over the Dallas front seven like he did to the Falcons last week?

My money’s on Tiki giving us one more signature game before he follows in the footsteps of another Giants running back, Frank Gifford, by becoming an omnipresent media personality in retirement.

BYAAAH!!!

2006-10-17T22:10:00.000-06:00

Some people took the Cardinals' loss to Chicago last night pretty hard. One person even lost his job because of it. But nothing, and I mean nothing can compare to Dennis Green's reaction.

Okay, maybe this compares, and of course, this.

Dennis Green, you're in some pretty great company today.

Thanks to Avi for the links.

College Football Rankings - October 15th

2006-10-15T11:49:00.000-06:00

The first BCS poll comes out today. The only certainty is that The Ohio State University will be ranked first. Fellow undefeateds Michigan and USC should follow (in some order), then the disrespected unbeatens from the Big East (Louisville and West Virginia) should be mixed in with the one-loss crowd. Way down the board will be the third unbeaten team from the Big East, Rutgers.

Speaking of Rutgers, how's this for a fact - there are six undefeated teams from the BCS conferences, and 3 of them are from the Big East. After a rough few years, I think that conference is on the way back, though it looks like respect from voters and the public will continue to lag.

Here's how I'd rank the top 25 teams in the country today:

1. Ohio State - They've looked absolutely dominant, and I can't see why they won't be ranked first going into their season-ending showdown against Michigan.

2. Michigan - They should also run the table, setting up a #1 vs #2 matchup to finish the season against OSU. I give them the nod over the other undefeated teams because they have the most impressive win, dominating Notre Dame in South Bend.

3. West Virginia - They've looked dominant against both bad and mediocre competition.

4. USC - They have a good team, but they look eminently beatable.

5. Louisville - With Brian Brohm back, they could challenge the Mountaineers in Morgantown a few weeks from now. They also own a blowout win over Miami, before that program completely fell apart.

6. Texas - Aside from getting rolled by the Buckeyes, they've looked like a top-flight team once again.

7/8/9/10. Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas. They all have one loss, all but Arkansas' are at the hands of one of the other three teams in this group. I don't know how to separate them at this point, so I won't.

The Rest:

11. Notre Dame 12. Clemson 13. Rutgers 14. California 15. Georgia Tech 16. Nebraska 17. LSU 18. Boise State 19. Oregon 20. Wisconsin 21. Texas A&M 22. Missouri 23. Boston College 24. Iowa 25. Georgia

Games To Watch Next Week:

Georgia Tech at Clemson - These could be the two best teams in the ACC, and might end up facing off in the championship game come December.

Texas at Nebraska - Both teams need a win to keep the inside track to the Big 12 title game. A win for Nebraska would also reestablish them as a top program.

Rutgers at Pittsburgh - The Scarlet Knights need this win to prove their legitimacy, while the 6-1 Panthers need this win to reestablish their credentials as a good program.

Upset Special:
Washington will beat Cal on the road.

5 Questions About Week 6 Of The NFL

2006-10-14T21:27:00.000-06:00

1. Which Winless Team Will Get On The Board?
Tampa Bay almost pulled off the upset at New Orleans last week, but they made the mistake of kicking to Reggie Bush, and that did them in. This week, they host the Cincinnati Bengals, coming off a bye. The Bengals are looking to get back on track after getting manhandled by New England two weeks ago, and I think they’re going to beat up on Tampa Bay.

Detroit hung in the game against Minnesota last week before a Jon Kitna interception ended their hopes of a comeback. They host Buffalo this week, and could pull off the upset.

Vince Young and Tennessee visit the Washington Redskins, and I don’t think it will go well. Clinton Portis is going to rush for over 150 yards.

Oakland visits Denver, and I suspect a methodical dismantling is in the works.

If I have to pick one, I’d go with Detroit, but I don’t see this week going well for any of the four winless teams.

2. Does Greg from Sportsblah Still Read This Site?
We’ll see if he responds to this:

Chicago might have the best defense in the league, and they certainly have some good offensive weapons in players like Thomas Jones, Bernard Berrian, and Muhsin Muhammed, but they’re not winning shit with Rex Grossman at quarterback.

They might go 14-2, and they might win the NFC, but they’re not winning the big prize. Maybe they could with a game manager like Brian Griese, but not with Rex Grossman. I like the kid, and he’s sure looked great against the Detroit Lions of the world, but I’m waiting to see him man up against a good defense before I give him any credit whatsoever.

Like every other product of Steve Spurrier’s fun and gun offense, he’s a system quarterback. You wonder why Shane Matthews and Danny Wuerrfel never made it as starters in the NFL? Because they didn’t have Spurrier’s pass-happy offense and a world of talent on the field that would make them look good. What about Terry Dean? He was an underrated college quarterback, but he couldn’t even stick with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Jesse Palmer? No roses for him from the NFL head coaches? Anyone remember how much Grossman sucked the year after Spurrier left and Ron Zook took over? Exactly.

There, I said it. Let’s move on.

(Note: I actually hope I'm wrong about Grossman, but 12 years of Gator quarterback failures in the pros has taught me better).

3. Can The Seahawks Win Without Shaun Alexander?
Yes. Does that mean they will win tomorrow? No. They’re also missing Bobby Engram, which means the 4-receiver set mismatch that they could have rolled out also takes a hit. The Seahawks need to create mismatches in the passing game to make up for the absence of Alexander and their shaky offensive line, otherwise they’re not going to be able to keep up with good teams.

4. How Excited Am I For the Joey Harrington Era in Miami?
Short answer: very. Aside from a couple of interceptions, he looked like the Joey Heisman of old – old being defined as college. He should perform better against the inconsistent Jets defense. Biggest reason to cheer for him: my dad’s a Dolphins fan, and tomorrow is his birthday. He’d like a Miami win, and I’d like one too, especially because I have no idea what else to get him.

5. Is There a More Exciting Game This Week Than Philadelphia at New Orleans?
Absolutely not, especially since the fate of both of my fantasy teams rest on this game. On one team, I have McNabb, Akers, and the Philly D. On the other, I have both Deuce and Reggie in my starting lineup since Jacksonville (and Fred Taylor) has a bye. I’m hoping for a shootout, with lots of Drew Brees sacks and interceptions thrown in.

Bonus Question: Has NBC dumped Pink already?
I certainly hope so, since they are adding a John Mellencamp song to the opening.

Have I mentioned how excited I am about the addition of Mellencamp? The song is generic heartland rock at its best, and you can hear it right now in Chevrolet commercials. Alternately, you can listen to it here.

Enjoy the games, and I hope you have that Mellencamp song in your head all day.

Cory Lidle Dead In Plane Crash

2006-10-11T15:18:00.000-06:00

A tragedy in New York today, as a small aircraft registered to Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle crashed into a Manhatten high rise.

The story doesn't confirm if it was Lidle himself flying the plane, but I'll update this post as information comes in.

Hat tip to Avi for sending me the story.

First Update: His passport has been found in the street by the accident.

Second Update: ESPN Story. Confirmation of death.

New York, New York

2006-10-10T18:02:00.000-06:00

A lot can change in a couple of days. When I began this post on Sunday night, this was the draft of the opening paragraph:

The New York Yankees of 2007 will look very different from the team that slunk off the field in Detroit on Saturday afternoon. How different remains to be seen, but we have almost certainly seen the last of some big names in pinstripes.

Now, I’m not so sure. There will certainly be changes. Starting pitchers Cory Lidle, Sidney Ponson, and Jaret Wright are unlikely to be brought back. Bullpen arms Tanyon Sturtze, Octavio Dotel, and Ron Villone are all free agents, with Villone being the most likely returnee due to the premium put on left-handed relievers. The team also holds an option on Mike Mussina, and it is unclear as to whether or not he will be brought back.

Around the diamond, utility men Miguel Cairo and Craig Wilson could be brought back if they agree to minor league or low guarantee contracts. Gary Sheffield’s option shouldn’t be picked up, especially with a crowded outfield (Damon, Matsui, Abreu, Cabrera).

With the exception of Gary Sheffield, none of these guys could be considered big names. Two days ago, it looked like two of the biggest names on the team – manager Joe Torre and reigning MVP Alex Rodriguez – were on the outs. Now, Torre is certainly coming back, and management says that ARod is staying too. The question of whether or not they should stay is an entirely different story. I say no on both counts.

Torre, the Yankees skipper for the past 11 seasons, and the most successful man to handle the job since Casey Stengel, should nonetheless be given the pink slip. While in many ways this move would make him the scapegoat for years of poor front office decisions, and poor performances from his stars in the playoffs, there are legitimate reasons why he should be replaced. His handling of the bullpen was questionable, as was his constant juggling of the batting order. In particular, his treatment of Alex Rodriguez is shameful for a manager. I’m normally the last person to defend ARod, but Torre’s comments to Sports Illustrated about the star’s demeanor were damaging, and inappropriate for any manager to make. Furthermore, while it would be foolish to blame Torre for ARod’s post-season struggles, it would also be imprudent to ignore the fact that his constant shifting of his star around in the batting order, culminating with a humiliating demotion to the 8th spot in Saturday’s game, almost certainly did a lot to damage ARod’s already fragile psyche.

That brings us to Alex Rodriguez. There have been rumors for the past number of months that the team would explore the option of trading him this off-season. If they choose that direction, there will be no shortage of suitors (the Angels and Cubs are expected to be at the start of the queue), and given the barrage he’s taken from fans, the front office, and the media, no one would blame ARod if he wanted out. He has a hostile relationship with the fans, and on the heels of this season, management too. I’m not convinced that the relationship in either case can be repaired, so it’s best to just cut losses and move on.

Texas is still paying a portion of his salary, so whoever picked up ARod would be on the hook for $64 million over 4 years, assuming that the Yankees didn’t pick up a cent of his deal. That’s a great deal for the best regular season hitter in the game. Who knows? Maybe getting away from the media circus in the Big Apple will help him concentrate and succeed come playoff time.

As for the Yanks, they need to stop building their club like it’s a softball team, and begin to strengthen their defense and pitching, which was the key to their dynasty in the late 1990s. ARod may not fetch an all-star or the top prospect in the game, but he could bring in 2-3 very good pieces. That’s good enough, since the Yankees are not short on firepower with or without him. Buster Olney gave an example of what he could fetch – a trade with Anaheim could bring in Ervin Santana, Chone Figgins, and a b-level prospect (Jeff Mathes maybe?). New York would lose offense, but they would add a great young arm to their rotation, a fast, defensively-sound player who can contribute all over the diamond, and a young catcher to apprentice under Jorge Posada. Which Yankee team are you going to bet on come playoff time, the one with ARod or the one with those three players? I know my answer.

Ditching ARod (and whatever other overpriced veterans they can) might hurt for the next season or two, but if they don’t move away from the Sheffields and Giambis and back towards the Brosiuses and O’Neills, they’re never going to get the Boss one last championship. In my playoff preview, I likened the Yankees to the Indianapolis Colts, since neither club is built according to the post-season formula, and neither club (in this decade) can get over the hump. Most of the Yankees veterans come off the books this year or next, which gives them a great opportunity to rebuild the club in a hurry. It will be interesting to see if Cashman, Torre, and company are up to the task.

Predictions for the LCS:

Only 1 of my 4 picks for the divisional round panned out (the Mets). So let’s try this again:

NLCS: Mets over St. Louis in 6
I don’t have a lot of confidence in either team’s pitching staff, so I’ll go with the team who has a better lineup of hitters.

ALCS: A’s over Tigers in 6
I have concerns about both teams. The A’s are missing their starting double-play combo, and despite what the ALDS may have told us, Marco Scutaro and D’Angelo Jimenez are a long ways away from being Bobby Crosby and Mark Ellis. My concern about the Tigers is that after seeing them celebrate their ALDS win like they had just won the World Series, I think they’re in for a big emotional letdown. I think that far outweighs Oakland’s injury woes, so let’s go with the A’s winning to set up the long awaited rematch of the 1973 World Series.

Buck O'Neil Passes Away

2006-10-06T22:48:00.000-06:00

Sad, sad news.

Buck O'Neil, the legendary Negro League player who stole the show in Ken Burns' Baseball, died today at the age of 94.

I can't really add anything to the ESPN article, except to express how unbelievable I find it that he was never elected to the Hall of Fame. While statistical records are spotty at best from the Negro Leagues, his contributions that we know of on the field, as well as those off of it, demonstrate how much of an impact Buck O'Neil has had on the game of baseball. He will be sorely missed, but we're all better off because of his contributions.

Some links about Buck:
Negro League Baseball Players Association
Wikipedia
Baseball-Reference
Negro Leagues Baseball Museum
A Tribute By Two Congressmen
An Open Letter To Buck O'Neil
Induct Buck O'Neil to the Hall of Fame
O'Neil Belongs Inside This Hall

I will post more stories as I come across them.

5 Questions About Week 5 Of The NFL

2006-10-06T22:42:00.000-06:00

This column is back after a one-week absence. There's a lot to be excited about this week. Here are some of the big storylines.

1. Which winless team will finally get on the board this week?
Tennessee visits Indianapolis, Detroit plays Minnesota in the Metrodome, Tampa Bay travels to New Orleans, and Oakland crosses the bay to play San Francisco. Tennessee doesn’t have a prayer unless Vince Young plays like he did in the Rose Bowl, while MAC alumnus Bruce Gradkowski isn’t going to work much magic for the Bucs in the Superdome. Oakland has the weakest opponent, but after the way they collapsed against the Browns last week, I’m not giving them any credit, even against a team that lost 41-0 to a Huard brother last week. That brings us to Detroit. Minnesota is normally tough at home, but they’ve dropped 2 in a row, and Detroit has shown flashes of respectability through the first month of the season. I’ll say they put it together this week and pull off a surprise.

2. Which unbeaten team is poised to fall?
Indianapolis hosts Tennessee, Chicago hosts a feisty Buffalo Bills squad, and Baltimore plays in Denver. The former two are safe, so I’m going to go with Baltimore losing on the road to a tough Broncos team.

3. Culpepper or Harrington?
Daunte’s first season is south Florida is shaping up to be 9 stages of hell for Dolphins fans. It’s not fair to blame him for all of the team’s struggles (they have an abundance of weaknesses), but he’s certainly not helping.

I’ve been a big fan of Joey Heisman ever since his Oregon days. I don’t think he can carry a team, but he could certainly be a very capable game manager. He was in a bad situation in Detroit, and while this one isn’t much better, it could be a decent fit. If Joey finds his groove, he won’t carry the Dolphins on his back, but he also won’t make the costly mistakes that Culpepper is making every week. I say give the kid a chance.

4. Which Team Most Needs A Win This Week?
For me, it’s the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers. They’re off to a 1-2 start, and this campaign is showing a lot of signs of being a lost season for the black and gold.

Here are some of the problems:

• Having lost Antwan Randle-El, they don’t have a reliable second option at wide receiver.

• Their offense thrives on having someone who can pound the ball between the tackles, and no one has stepped up to fill this role in Jerome Bettis’ absence.

• Ben Roethlisberger got less than 40 snaps of game action in during the pre-season, and following an appendectomy, has looked rusty at times since returning in Week 2.

• They play in a strong division, and have a difficult overall schedule.

Their win this year was at home on opening night over Miami. Against playoff-caliber teams, they were shutout against Jacksonville and gave away a win to Cincinnati. A win over the impressive-looking Chargers will reestablish the Steelers as a top team. A loss will send them to 1-3, and leave them looking up, way up, at the Bengals and Ravens.

5. How many reasons do I have to be excited about the Cowboys-Eagles game?
Lots, beyond the obvious T.O. drama, though that is obviously the story getting the most attention. For me, this game will show us whether or not T.O. is still a receiver. If he is, he’ll shred the Eagles secondary, and if he scores, mock Brian Dawkins’ celebratory Eagle dance (whatever the heck he calls it). If he’s not, he’ll struggle, disappear, then mope on the sidelines, all the while getting heckled by the merciless Philadelphia crowd.

Beyond the T.O. sideshow, we have a matchup of two strong defenses, and two teams who could be the two most talented squads in the NFC East. It’s also important for Drew Bledsoe to put in a strong showing on the road if we’re to consider the Cowboys a contender. As for his counterpart at quarterback, Donovan McNabb just needs to keep putting up huge numbers for my fantasy team, and I’ll be happy.

So THAT'S What I Should Have Done To Kimmis!

2006-10-06T21:25:00.000-06:00

All joking aside, this is messed up. Next thing you know, the guy will sue EA Sports, saying the play-calling screens made him do it. Don't people have any sense of human decency anymore? His parents, family, teachers, friends, community and nation should be proud of him.

Hat tip to Abboud for the link.

NHL Predictions

2006-10-04T20:59:00.000-06:00

Briefly:

Eastern Conference
1. Ottawa Senators - I like a lot of their off-season moves. While they may have lost star power in Chara and Havlat, I think they are a deeper team overall with the addition of Preissing, Corvo, and the continued improvement of youngsters like Vermette and Eaves. Let's not forget that Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley are still approaching their prime, and one or both of them could contend for the Art Ross.

2. Tampa Bay Lightning - Marc Denis solidifies the back line, while I see the big three (Lecavalier, Richards, and St. Louis) rebounding with solid seasons.

3. New York Rangers - They have experience, talent, and grit. I think they improved in the off-season, and not having the olympic break (which wore out some of their talent) will help.

4. Buffalo Sabres - Still one of the best teams in the league. They are deep and talented.

5. New Jersey Devils - Lou Lamoreillo managed to keep and resign everyone from last year's division-winning club. They're a bit older at some positions, so I'm not sure if they can keep with the Rangers.

6. Carolina Hurricanes - There are a lot of question marks, beginning with whether or not Cam Ward can be a #1 goalie all year, but I still see enough talent here to make the playoffs.

7. Boston Bruins - They dramatically improved their team this off-season. I loved everything they did, except for Marc Savard's salary. Don't underestimate the boost from a healthy Hannu Toivunen. The kid was having a very good year in net until a season-ending injury in January.

8. Philadelphia Flyers - I don't see a lot of things breaking right for this team. They lost a couple of key veterans (Desjardins and Primeau), and are old on defense. I also wonder how well equipped they are to deal with the inevitable Peter Forsberg injury. Suffice to say, there are a lot of question marks here.

9. Florida Panthers - This is a good team, but they'll come up just short.

10. Montreal Canadiens - I'm not sold on their defense, and I think Cristobal Huet's 15 minutes is just about up.

11. Atlanta Thrashers - Kovalchuk, Hossa, and...? I don't know. Having Kari Lehtonen in goal, but this team needs more depth up front.

12. Pittsburgh Penguins - There's a lot of young talent here. Once Malkin gets healthy, they'll be a feisty opponent, but they're not a playoff team yet.

13. Toronto Maple Leafs - Just a bad team. The less said, the better.

14. New York Islanders - On talent alone, I could see them finishing 10th or 11th, but team morale must be in the toilet right now.

15. Washington Capitals - They're a one man show, and the only reason that the Isles won't finish last.

Western Conference
1. Detroit Red Wings - They have a weak division, and a lot of young talent that's about to take off. Even if they have to play Chris Osgood 30-40 nights this year, they could win the President's Trophy.

2. San Jose Sharks - They're deep, balanced, and led by "Mr. December" Joe Thornton, who should be in the Art Ross mix once again.

3. Calgary Flames - They will score more goals this year, which, given their great defense, should be enough to separate them from the crowd in the Northwest.

4. Nashville Predators - They have a good mix of veterans and youngsters, and one of the underrated goalies in the league in Tomas Vokoun. Plus, they get to beat up on the Central division.

5. Mighty Ducks of Anaheim - Even if they don't score goals, they have great defense and very good goaltending, which should be enough to secure a playoff spot.

6. Minnesota Wild - They beefed up the offense, and I think they could surprise a lot of teams this year.

7. Edmonton Oilers - A ton of depth up front, and a serviceable defense and netmining duo should ensure a second consective playoff appearance.

8. Chicago Blackhawks - Just so I can look smart if by some miracle everything comes together for this team.

9. Vancouver Canucks - Can they win with one big line and a top-notch goalie? Probably, but I think this team has too many holes, and a killer division schedule.

10. Colorado Avalanche - They're not as bad as some people think, but I'm not sure they're still a playoff team.

11. Los Angeles Kings - They lack top-level talent, but they have a lot of grit, young players with potential, and Marc Crawford will have them playing hard.

12. Dallas Stars - They're getting older, Modano's upset about losing the C, and Turco got shelled in the playoffs. I sense this is the year everything falls apart in Dallas, and they end up tearing the team apart next summer.

13. St. Louis Blues - They made some moves to bring the team closer to respectability, but they are still a long way away from contending.

14. Phoenix Coyotes - This is a team going nowhere fast, even with the addition of Ed Jovanovski.

15. Columbus Blue Jackets - How does Doug MacLean still have a job? Aside from drafting Rick Nash, he hasn't done anything to bring this team closer to contention in 6 years?

Hart Trophy - Eric Staal, Carolina
Art Ross Trophy - Eric Staal, Carolina
Rocket Richard Trophy - Ilya Kovalchuk, Atlanta
Norris Trophy - Zdeno Chara, Boston
Vezina Trophy - Mikka Kiprusoff, Calgary
Calder Trophy - Phil Kessel, Boston
Adams Trophy - John Tortorella, Tampa Bay

Stanley Cup:
NY Rangers over Minnesota, because it will probably be a result that no one is expecting.

Penguins About To Get RIMmed

2006-10-04T18:56:00.000-06:00

The Pittsburgh Penguins have been sold to Canadian businesmman Jim Balsillie, owner of Research In Motion (you know them as the company who makes the blackberry).

Balsillie claims to be committed to keeping the Pens in Pittsburgh, but he has also paid a $50,000 fee to gain the right to put a team in Hamilton, Ontario, so we totally believe him, right?

On the topic, I think Hamilton would be a great location for a relocated franchise. The Copps Coliseum is an excellent facility, assuming that it is exactly how I remember it from Canada Cup '91. We should also work on getting teams back in Winnipeg and Quebec City, and probably Saskatoon as well, since they have a pretty swank arena. I nominate the Pens (to Hamilton), Phoenix (back to the 'Peg) and the two Florida teams to Quebec and Saskatoon. It's about time we reversed the flow of franchises across the 49th parallel.

So, um, yeah. Congrats to Balsillie on his new acquisition, and the Pens on a new ownership. Hopefully it leads to a period of stability...wherever that stability may be.

2006 MLB Playoff Predictions

2006-10-02T15:21:00.000-06:00

October is my favorite month for sports. Football, both college and pro, is in full swing. NBA training camps open, and the NHL regular season starts, reassuring me that there will be sports to follow once football season wraps up. Most important of all, October means playoff baseball.

If you ignore the on-going steroid scandals, this is a pretty good time to be a baseball fan. After a largely dull string of New York Yankee dominance in the late ‘90s, we had a pretty good run of playoff baseball in the past 5-6 years. 2001 and 2002 produced memorable, thrilling seven-game finales (D-Backs-Yanks and Angels-Giants), while the 2003 and 2004 ALCS battles between the Red Sox and the Yankees rank among the most memorable playoff matchups of all time. Last year’s playoff round was something of a dud, but there’s reason to believe that will be an aberration.

After the big-market vs. small-market problems of the last decade, competitive balance has returned to baseball. Since 2002, we’ve had 8 different teams in 4 years appear in the World Series. Of those 8 teams, only the Yankees and Cardinals qualified for the playoffs this year, meaning that it’s likely that this stat could grow to 10 different teams in 5 years. In the same time frame, we’ve had 10 of the 16 National League teams qualify for the playoffs, and 6 of the 14 American League teams make it in. This seems to be a good balance between parity and sustained success.

As for the plight of small-market teams, some of them have found ways to put together a contender over a number of years, notably Minnesota and Oakland, who both return to the playoffs this year despite ranking, respectively, 19th and 21st overall in team payroll.

If you look at the salaries of the teams who made it to the World Series since 2002, it shows that you can be a middle-market team, and still succeed:

Year: Winner, Loser (Ranking in Overall Payroll)
2002: Anaheim (15th), San Francisco (10th)
2003: Florida (25th), New York Yankees (1st)
2004: Boston (2nd), St. Louis (9th)
2005: Chicago White Sox (13th), Houston (12th)

A couple of other parity-related stats:

•: Aside from the Yankee juggernaut, only the Florida Marlins have appeared in more than one World Series (1997 and 2003) since 1997.

• Six different teams have won the World Series in the past six years.

Another reason to be excited about baseball is the number of emerging young stars in the game. Several of them are performing in the playoffs this year, notably Jose Reyes and David Wright of the Mets, Jake Peavy of the Padres, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau of the Twins, Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, and Joel Zumaya of the Tigers, and Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, and Huston Street of the Athletics.

This list doesn’t even include some of the future Hall of Famers (Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Mariano Rivera) who will be on display, nor does it mention the players at the top of their game, such as Albert Pujols, Carlos Beltran, and Johan Santana.

It’s an exciting time for baseball, and it should be an exciting month ahead. On to the picks.

ALDS: New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are 19-31 in their last 50 games. They got swept at home by Kansas City on the final weekend of the season, and blew a 6-run lead in the final game. Their young pitchers are tired, and their offense has gone into a funk.

New York may not be perfect, but they have a deep lineup that knows how to work the count and get on base, a rotation that is at least as steady as the Tigers’, and the greatest closer of all-time holding down the fort.

Unless they recapture the magic of the first 110 games of the season, I have trouble imagining any way that the Tigers can pull this series out. They have the advantage in defense and overall bullpen strength, but that won’t be enough to make a difference unless their offense can get to the Yankees’ starters and force Joe Torre to use his middle relief for extending periods. If New York’s starters get through the 6th or 7th inning of a game, it’s likely to be game over.

Prediction: Yankees in 3.

ALDS: Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics
This is the toughest series to pick for me. After being the popular pick in the pre-season, the A’s have flown under the radar since, quietly putting together an excellent season. They are very good defensively, have hitters who know how to get on base, and quite possibly have the best rotation of any playoff team. These are three important characteristics of a championship club.

The Minnesota Twins made a dramatic, Oakland-esque charge down the stretch to win their division. After a sub-.500 start, they won more than 2/3 of their last 100 games. On the field, Johan Santana, the best pitcher in the game, anchors their rotation. Justin Morneau and AL batting champion Joe Mauer, who could both make a case for being the most valuable player in the league, bring power to the lineup. They are supported by a scrappy surrounding cast that White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen nicknamed “the piranhas”. While Nick Punto, Lew Ford, and Jason “President” Bartlett may not be household names, they’re the kind of character players who tend to make big plays when they count.

Each team has question marks. Minnesota’s lineup looks to be one bat short, and their rotation is questionable beyond Santana. Oakland, on the other hand, needs more output from their offense, and I can’t get over the fact that this team has played 9 playoff games in the Billy Beane era in which they could have clinched a series win, and lost all of them. However, as Chris Berman would say, these are not your father’s Oakland Athletics. This Oakland team is more than just a collection of on-base machines, they can play defense too.

Nonetheless, I can’t shake the feeling that Oakland will choke, and/or the Twins will find a way to get the outs and the runs that they need.

Prediction: Twins in 5. Minnesota rebounds from a 2-1 deficit (Johan loses Game 1) to win, extending the A’s streak to 11 losses in potential series winning games.

NLDS: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Mets are in trouble. Not only is ace Pedro Martinez gone for the year, but their hitting completely disappeared in the month of September, and their lineup is vulnerable against left-handed pitching. Their rotation for the NLDS features two pitchers on the wrong side of 40, followed by TBA, expected to be mediocre veteran Steve Trachsel and erratic youngster John Maine.

On the plus side for the Metropolitans, they will only face one left-handed starter (Hong-Chi Kuo in Game 2), and LA only has one left-handed relief specialist on the post-season roster (Joe Beimel). The Dodgers have some question marks too, with Kuo being largely unproven outside of one strong performance in Shea last month, and Brad Penny, who should be penciled in for Game 4 if healthy, nursing some nagging injuries. Other Dodgers nursing nagging injures: Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent.

In the playoffs, I look at starting pitching, relief pitching, fielding, then offense. A generous observer might call the rotations a wash, but the Dodgers have a clear edge in the bullpen, The Mets are a slightly better team in the field, though with their recent slump, might be the worse of the two teams as far as hitting goes.

This is a tough call, but I’m making my decision based on the assumption that Grady Little will cost his team at least one game.

Prediction: Mets in 5

NLDS: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Lunatics backed into the playoffs, and are missing several key players due to injury. They boast the best hitter in baseball (Albert Pujols), and he has a decent supporting cast in the field. Their pitching looks to be a disaster waiting to happen, though.

San Diego looks like the favorite to win the National League. They have a sound rotation, with a young ace (Jake Peavy), a budding star (Chris Young), and two solid veterans (Woody Williams and David Wells). Their bullpen is deep, anchored by the all-time saves leader (Trevor Hoffman) and two lights-out set-up men (Scott Linebrink and Cla Meredith). They’re a strong team defensively, and have enough hitting to contend.

Prediction; Padres in 4.

Moving on to the League Championship Series…

National League: New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
The Mets good fortune will run out here. The only decisive advantage I can see them having over the Whale’s Vagina is on the base paths – Reyes, Beltran and company will run wild on Mike Piazza and his Johnny Damon-like arm. Nonetheless, a better pitching staff, a slight edge in defense, and timely hitting will be more than enough to carry San Diego to its third World Series appearance.

Prediction: Padres in 5.
MVP: Chris Young, who wins Games 1 and 5.

American League: New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
I should pick the Yankees here, since there’s a lot to like about this club if you’re trying to pick a winner. Their lineup is second to none in these playoffs, they figure to be well rested after dismantling the Tigers, and their rotation should have more depth than Minnesota’s, with or without Randy Johnson.

But I just can’t do it. The post-2000 Yankees strike me as the Indianapolis Colts of baseball. There are certainly some similarities – both are led by a universally-disliked franchise player who has a reputation for disappearing in the clutch (ARod and Peyton), both teams try to build winning clubs by assembling the most potent offense possible, at the expense of the traditional characteristics of championship teams (pitching and defense in one case, running the ball and stopping the run in the other), and both teams have a manager/coach who tends to be overvalued because of he’s an overall great guy. Now this isn’t a perfect analogy, since the Colts don’t have an equivalent to Jeter or Rivera, but the point is this: neither team is built like a traditional championship club.

Also, something about this Twins teams gives me a feel-good “team of destiny” vibe. It could be the emergence of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, two of the faces of the new generation of baseball stars (who are from, respectively, Minnesota and British Columbia of all places). It could be the presence of Boof Bonser, the underrated rookie who has stolen Coco Crisp’s claim to having the best name in baseball. Or it could be Brad Radke’s miraculous comeback. I think he’ll make one start per round, even though his right arm could fall off at any moment. That, my friends, proves that, like Vince McMahon, he has balls the size of grapefruits. We also haven’t talked about the resurgent Torri Hunter, or the numerous scrappy, likeable players that fill out the rest of the lineup. Minnesota will put the ball in play against pitchers like Mussina and Wang. New York’s deficiencies there, along with those in middle relief, will make the difference and allow Minnesota to come out on top.

I might be picking with my heart and not my head, but here it goes:

Prediction: Twins in 6.
MVP: Joe Nathan, who saves 2 games and gets a win.

World Series: Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres
Twins all the way.

Prediction: Twins in 5.
MVP: Torri Hunter.

Miners Win Inaugural ABC Championship

2006-10-01T21:59:00.000-06:00

In the end the Vancouver Drizzle pleaded no contest as the Northern Miners swept to the first Alberta Baseball Confederacy championship by a score of 306 2/3 to 222.

Reinforcing the aphorism that ‘pitching wins championships,’ the Miners’ rotation delivered record performances. Over 42 innings the pitchers produced five wins, a 2.77 ERA, 35 K and just five walks for a total of 134 2/3 points.

Veterans John Smoltz and Greg Maddux delivered four wins and a combined 75-points, while Aaron Harang turned in a complete game 9-strikeout win for 31-points. The bullpen got in on the act with four saves and 32-points from BJ Ryan and Billy Wagner. Only Kelvim Escobar hit a sour note with a negative-point first outing and a skipped second start.

The Drizzle’s pitchers hit the wall in week 26, with Jon Lieber, Derek Lowe, Brett Myers, Jeff Suppan and relievers Cordero and Rivera combining for 39 innings, 4.81 ERA, 28 K, 11 walks, one win, no saves and two blown saves. The total: just 40 points; the equal of John Smoltz’s week.

It was a disappointing performance that undermined the 183 points put on the board by the Drizzle’s offence, headed by Pujols (39), Ichiro (31), Pudge (25) and Cuddyer (25). That was 11-points better than the Miners’ normally dominant batters. Garrett Atkins closed out his career-year with a 39-point week, while Abreu (29) and Tracy (26) delivered solid results. Superstars Ryan Howard, Jose Reyes and Vladimir Guerrero finished with a middling 17-18 points each, with the latter being held out of play on the final weekend.

Looking Back: Building a Champion
The decisive wins in the semis and finals capped an exceptional second-half that saw the Miners go undefeated for 20-straight games and finish first overall by half a game. The turning point came at week-16 in mid-July, just after the All Star break. The Miners were just three games over .500 but only eight games back of the division leader and likely bound for the playoffs. Management decided to play to win.

That week the team added Ray Durham off the waiver wire; a position that had been a drag on performance was instantly transformed into top-three production that carried through to year-end. One week later on July 30th the Miners added Erik Bedard through trade, surrendering a warm body (Rafael Soriano) and a swap of 3rd and 4th round draft picks with the Man-Ram Sula-Ram.

On August 7th Mike Mussina and John Smoltz joined the team via a controversial trade with the Spruce Avenue Supernauts. The Miners surrendered future superstar Felix Hernandez for the aging duo, as the sub-.500 Supernauts prepared for the 2007 season. The inclusion of a conditional pick as insurance against an injury to King Felix broke new ground in the league, and other owners scrambled to include the feature in their deals.

The final piece of the puzzle was added at the deadline on August 14th as Billy Wagner was traded from the St. Patricians to backstop the bullpen of BJ Ryan and Takashi Saito against possible injury. The price: a swap of 7th and 9th round picks in 2007.

How much difference did the trades make? John Smoltz was critical, starting seven times and scoring 146-points for the Miners including 40-points in the championship week. Billy Wagner played weekly following his acquisition, scoring 86-points over seven weeks.

Despite the loss of Miners’ star Scott Kazmir to injury, Mussina and Bedard went virtually unused; Mussina was started just once, scoring 11 points, and Bedard started twice, scoring 35-points.

The Ironmen
Set it and forget it. The Miners’ regular batting lineup for eight positions played 189 of a possible 208 weeks, avoiding injury and delivering elite performances. Johjima, Howard, Reyes and Guerrero were in action every week, while Atkins and Abreu were each reserved once. Even Chad Tracy spent half a season playing the third-outfield position or DH.

With four batters over 500 points, and those same four in the top-ten overall for points, the Miners' regulars provided the decisive edge. Only one other team, the St. Pats, managed two batters in the top-ten, while the Drizzle, Royal Rooters of Boston, Man-Ram Sula-Ram and On Top each had a single player at that level.

Pos	Player	Drafted	Weeks	Total Points	Comment
C	Kenji Johjima	17/195	26	328	Veteran rookie's season ranked 6th among catchers.
1B	Ryan Howard	7/75	26	556	#3 first baseman was #1 in second-half, with a post-All Star OPS of 1.263; 8th overall.
3B	Garrett Atkins	9/99	25	559	Reserved only once, he finished 1st at 3B and 7th overall, 40 points ahead of Miggy and 75 up on A-Rod.
SS	Jose Reyes	3/27	26	578	Third-best point producer overall, and #1 at SS.
OF	Vladimir Guerrero	1/3	26	529	#4 outfielder and #10 overall.
OF	Bobby Abreu	2/22	25	479	Reserved once, he finished 16th among OF and 32nd overall, and flourished post-trade.
OF	Luis Gonzalez	14/166	22	421	Reserved four times, the overlooked slugger was 23rd among OF.
OF	Chad Tracy	6/70	13	362	Baseball's 35th best OF platooned a half-season, mostly at DH.

The Revolving Door at Second
Six players combined for just 356 points at second-base; if that had been a single-player’s score it would have ranked a lowly 17th at the position. The bright side: Ray Durham’s arrival in late July turned things around. Durham turned in a top-three performance in August-September, and finished the season ranked third at the position, behind only Soriano and Utley.

Pos	Player	Drafted	Weeks	Points for Miners	Comment
2B	Jorge Cantu	5/51	10	103	Intended as franchise 2B, fell to injury at end of April and was later benched then traded.
2B	Ray Durham	F.A.	9	168	Free Agent signed 7/23; played 9 of last 10 weeks; second highest scoring 2B in final month.
2B	Craig Counsell	20/235	2	26	Counsell and others filled-in between Cantu's injury and Durham's arrival.
2B	Marcus Giles	F.A.	1	11
2B	Ty Wigginton	F.A.	3	35
2B	Todd Walker	F.A.	1	13

Guest Stars
It’s a foolish investor that chases past-performance reports, and a foolish manager that tries to catch a player’s hot-streak. While I have fond memories of a 31-point week by Nick Markakis that kept a winning-streak alive, a closer look reveals that going with the hot-hand did more harm than good.

Nine players rounded out the Miners’ batting lineup, making 19 starts between them: Nick Markakis, Shawn Green, Milton Bradley, and Dan Johnson each started three weeks; Mark DeRosa and Shea Hillenbrand were in twice; and Juan Encarnacion, Jeromy Burnitz and Mike Sweeney each played once. The 232 points they scored for the Miners was a whopping 139 points less than what would have been scored if the regulars (Tracy, Gonzalez, Abreu, Atkins) had been left in to play every week.

Arms and the Man
Pitching won the Miners the championship week match-up, and pitching delivered throughout the regular season, led by Cincinnati superstar Aaron Harang who produced the second-highest point total among baseball’s starting pitchers.

Player	Total	Scored	Rank	Comment
Harang, Aaron	465	334	2	Underutilized early, he started 12 of the final 14 weeks.
Smoltz, John	460	146	3	Seven sterling weeks from the trade addition.
Mussina, Mike	412	11	10	Trade pick-up deserved to get the ball more than once.
Bedard, Erik	366	35	23	29-point outing in the semi-final was worth the price.
Hernandez, Felix	346	98	32	Departed ace started 5 times during his 11 weeks with Miners.
Maddux, Greg	337	214	36	Recorded 9 wins during his 11 Miners' starts.
Vazquez, Javier	329	165	43	The best #5 man in baseball; 6 wins in 11 Miners' starts.
Escobar, Kelvim	325	156	45	Five wins in 9 weeks for Miners.
Kazmir, Scott	314	238	52	Seven wins in 8 weeks but did not play after Aug. 22nd.
Duke, Zach	268	141	65	Started 8 weeks and delivered 6 wins.
Davis, Doug	269	39	68	Active 5 times, did not produce a win; started only once after June.

Spot starts were made by Chad Billingsley, Scott Baker, Brett Tomko, Ramon Ortiz, Josh Fogg, Clay Hensley, Bartolo Colon and David Wells. Colon, drafted 46th overall in the fourth round, had been scouted as the rotation’s anchor, along with intended-keeper Scott Kazmir. In the end it was the mid- to late-round pitching additions that carried the team, with Harang at 214th overall (8th round) delivering the biggest premium.

The bullpen was solid from day one, with BJ Ryan and Tom Gordon delivering top-ten relief pitcher performances before Gordon was traded for Felix Hernandez. Gordon was then replaced by Takashi Saito, a free agent pick-up who finished the season with the sixth-highest point production among relievers thanks to 107 Ks in 78 innings.

The Case For The Defence

2006-10-01T13:28:00.000-06:00

Given what we know about the federal investigation into Barry Bonds, it's difficult to take at face value the report that Jason Grimsley gave up Brian Roberts, Jay Gibbons and Miguel Tejada as steroid users, and pitchers Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte as users of "performance enhancing drugs" (whether they were legal under MLB rules is unstated).

But it's not like speculation about Roberts' sudden breakout as a power-hitting second baseman is new. As the graph here illustrates, Roberts enjoyed a remarkable age-27 surge in his homerun/plate-appearance rate, and his homerun/flyball rate. However charts like this are too easily thrown around as 'evidence' that a player must be doping. There are at least four reasons why we should be skeptical:

Age: We'd expect a good player to develop more isolated power as he entered his peak-production years.

Experience: The start of Roberts' development was slowed by elbow surgery in 2000, and in 2001 he was quickly promoted to the major league level at age 23, where he had 273 at-bats. This was a lot to ask from a player with fewer than 600 at-bats in his professional career. Roberts' mediocre power numbers at the major league level came when he was still learning the game, fighting Jerry Hairston for a regular job, and being asked by the Baltimore organization to focus on his base-stealing skills. The spike in 2005 may look bigger than it should because the pre-2005 seasons were depressed -- and his 50 doubles in 2004 could easily be interpeted as a sign of power-in-waiting.

Luck/Noise: That spike in power production was also accompanied by a spike in BABIP. Not shown on the graph is Roberts' BABIP for 2004-06: .316, .344, and .318. Pretty much everything went right for him in 2005 -- which is why we have the phrase "career year."

Injury: Roberts suffered an horrific elbow injury as the end of the 2005 season. Before we interpret the 2006 drop-off in power as a sign that doping had ceased we should consider his recovery from the injury, and regression to the mean.

Pennant Watch: Sunday, September 30th

2006-10-01T11:03:00.000-06:00

Only One Spot Remains
The NL Central remains up for grabs. St. Louis leads by a game and a half, and can clinch with a win over Milwaukee today. They send ace Chris Carpenter to the hill, so they should be in good shape. If they lose, however, and Houston wins, then the Cards have to play the Giants tomorrow in a make-up game. If they lose that, they will drop into a tie with Houston, and play the Astros in a tie-breaker on Tuesday.

Later today, Houston sends 28-year old rookie Chris Sampson to the hill to face future hall of famer John Smoltz. Breathe easy, Cardinals fans.

End of the Road for Philadelphia
Both the Dodgers and the Padres won yesterday, clinching playoff spots. That means that the Phillies are once again going to be left out in the cold.

The Fight For Positioning
Four teams are playing today with playoff positioning on the line. Detroit and Minnesota remain tied for the AL Central lead. Detroit holds the tie-breaker, so if both teams win (or lose), they will get the nod, putting Minnesota in the wild card spot. The division winner will host Oakland, and the wild card will go on the road to New York in the ALDS. It's a shame that Detroit could still lose today, and claim the division crown if the Twinkies also go down in defeat. I'm of the opinion that if you get swept at home by the Kansas City Royals, you don't deserve the division title, or possibly even a playoff spot.

The same situation applies in the NL West. San Diego holds the tie-breaker over LA, so a Padres win will clinch the division crown. The winner will host the NL Central champ (likely St. Louis), while the wild card team goes on the road to face the Mets. Interestingly, both teams face their opposing team's ace - the Dodgers get Jason Schmidt of the Giants, while the Padres get Brandon Webb of the D-Backs.

Game of the Day
Milwaukee at St. Louis. Chris Carpenter can earn his keep, and boost his Cy Young prospects with a strong performance and a win this afternoon.

Hot Oil: The Ivory (or is that ovary) Tower Dissertation

2006-09-30T11:45:00.000-06:00

Not content to let the Toronto Sun monopolize three days of straight front-page coverage on the Tie Domi/Belinda Stronach tryst, in today's Globe and Mail Michael Valpy weighs in on Belinda as a lightning rod of Canadian public opinion at the intersection of sex, politics, and hockey. While normally this subject would be beneath my contempt, a killer quote in the Valpy article caught my attention, in large part because it was supplied by friend, neighbor, Oiler-lover and former grad school classmate Amy Nugent, described by Valpy as "Amy Nugent of Edmonton, a doctoral candidate in Canadian politics who studies women in public life":

It is part of a Canadian woman's genetic disposition to be sexually attracted to good skaters and hockey players, part of our Darwinian struggle. Nothing sets my ovaries humming like the spray of ice from a hockey stop. It's grace, strength, hockey-coach-for-your-kids, the measure of a Canadian man. I was never a puck bunny, but I get it.

I am reticent to put the Belinda-Tie affair on the same plane as Canadian zeitgeist, despite fevered reactions to the article on the Globe's message board. However one need look little further than the lurid, hilarious gushing on Hot Oil to confirm Amy's observation.

The vitriol reserved for Belinda in some corners as a floor-crossing, man-eating, marriage-breaking political opportunist is balanced out by the multiplying celebrity factor of a dalliance with the Leaf's (former yet forever) big-hearted tough guy. Any chance that Belinda's erratic moves in public life could threaten her chances of electoral victory are nullified by the fact that in Newmarket-Aurora, Tie Domi equals good politics.

All of which leads me to conclude: Georges Laraques for Prime Minister.

Pennant Watch: Saturday, September 30

2006-09-30T08:32:00.000-06:00

New York Pulls Ahead
The Yankees won, while the Tigers and Twins (tied for the AL Central lead) both lost, giving New York a two-game lead for home field with two games to play. Home field looks safe for the bronx bombers.

Cardinals Regain Life
Given an opening with Houston's loss in Atlanta, the Cardinals took advantage, beating up on the Brewers to earn a 10-5 win. St. Louis should be a lock for the playoffs now, as the only way Houston can make up the 1.5 game deficit is by winning their last two, and hoping St. Louis drops their last two.

The Wild Wild West
Los Angeles rallied in the 9th to beat San Francisco, which, coupled with San Diego's loss to Arizona, puts the Dodgers in a tie for first in the west with the Padres. Philly won to stay 2 back of the wild card, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive.

Game of the Day
Houston at Atlanta and Philadelphia at Florida. Both of these teams need a win and lots of help or else their playoff push will end today.

'Canes Hit The Panic Button

2006-09-29T14:43:00.000-06:00

Wow.

The 'Canes have been looking to upgrade their defense since Frantisek Kaberle was sidelined with an injury, and they "upgraded" today, at least at the NHL level. They added young defenseman Tim Gleason, along with two-way forward Eric Belanger. To acquire these bodies, they gave up all offense, no defense defenseman Oleg Tverdovsky...and top prospect Jack Johnson.

Johnson, picked 3rd overall in 2004, had frustrated the 'Canes brass by twice refusing to turn pro, first at the beginning of the playoffs this spring, and most recently, prior to training camp. On the ice, he has given every indication that he deserved to be a top pick. He posted 32 points in 38 games at the University of Michigan last season, his Freshman year, and about the only bad thing you can say about his play at the World Juniors this year was that he was outclassed by fellow American blueline Erik Johnson. Just three days ago, Hockey's Future ranked him as the 4th top prospect in the game, behind only Evgeni Malkin, Kari Lehtonen, and the aforementioned Erik Johnson.

Meanwhile, the 'Canes get to plug Tim Gleason into their lineup. A first round draft pick in 2001, Gleason has performed well, and is a career +1 in 125 games. It's worth noting that he also has less than 30 points in those games, so his upside is probably as a Glen Wesley-type defensive defenseman. Good, but not great. Was it worth giving a potential franchise defenseman for? I don't think so.

Thumbs way up for Dean Lombardi's work on this one. Slowly but surely, he will get the Kings back on track.

As for the work of Jim Rutherford and the 'Canes, this trade basically amounts to dumping $5 million in salary over the next two years, and giving up a potential franchise defenseman in exchange for a young #3-4 defenseman, and a depth forward who you could have probably had for a 4th round pick once the season starts. Bravo. They might want to hold off on planning the Stanley Cup parade in Raleigh.

Pennant Watch: Friday, September 29

2006-09-28T23:32:00.000-06:00

Today's edition comes early as I will be busy tomorrow and would be unable to post it until the late afternoon.

To recap last night:

One Is The Loneliest Number
The Yankees league lead remains at one, thanks to the Orioles' Daniel Cabrera, who one-hit the Yanks in a 7-1 Baltimore win. Lucky for New York, one of their division rivals was willing to lend a hand - Toronto beat Detroit for the second time in three games.

There's Some Magic Left In The Old Baggy Dome
On an emotional night in the Twin Cities, with Brad Radke returning from injury in what might be his final start at home, the Twins pulled out a come from behind win over the Kansas City Royals. They scored in the 9th to tie the game, then in the 10th to win. The Twinkies are now tied with Detroit for the AL Central lead.

As for Kansas City, this was their 100th loss of the season, and to no one's surprise, they earned it in heartbreaking fashion.

Football's Return To Los Angeles A Success!
Wait, that's not true. But you'll forgive me for getting confused as to what sport the Dodgers and Rockies were playing that let them post a 19-11 final. This was an important win for the Dodgers, who remain a game back of San Diego for the West lead, but now have a 1.5 game cushion in the wild card race. Speaking of which...

Rain Postpones Philadelphia's Collapse
The Phillies-Nats game was postponed for...a while. It was supposed to start around 7 local time; now it's 1:40 in the morning, and they're just beginning the 8th inning. Washington leads 3-1, and if they hold on, they will almost certainly end the Phillies' post-season hopes.

I'm still rooting for Philly. If Major League Baseball has any flair for the dramatic, Philadelphia will soon take the lead on a Ryan Howard home run that knocks the power out of RFK Stadium.

Sssssssssssssssshhhhhhhhh!!!!!
Houston, paced by a gutty performance from ace Roy Oswalt, won for the 9th game in a row. Oswalt did what he had to, going seven innings to give the bullpen a rest, before Miller and Qualls pitched the 8th, and Brad Lidge the 9th to earn the save.

Meanwhile, in East St. Louis, the Brewers hammered on Cardinals starter Jason Marquis, and jumped out to a 9-1 lead after 4 innings. The Cards, for the second night in a row, scored 3 in the 8th, making the final score a bit more respectable. I tell you, if MLB would just let the games start in the 8th inning, the Cards would have nothing to worry about.

Anyway, the short of it is this: With 3 games left, St. Louis leads Houston by 1/2 game.

Playoff Picture: American League
We're not concerned about Oakland, since they're pretty much locked into opening on the road against the AL Central winner. The three teams jockeying for positioning are all at home; New York hosts Toronto, Minnesota gets Chicago, and Detroit gets Kansas City (hello sweep!)

With a one-game lead, New York will have to lose 2 of 3 to have any chance of giving up home field. In the Central, Detroit holds the tie-breaker over Minnesota, so if they finish with identical records, the Twinkies will open up the playoffs in the Bronx.

Playoff Picture: National League
With the Mets still the only team to clinch, things are considerably more complicated. Of the teams in contention, only St. Louis plays at home, hosting Milwaukee. Houston goes on the road to Atlanta, Philadelphia to Florida, San Diego to Arizona, and Los Angeles to San Francisco.

In the race for the Central crown, Houston needs to win one more game than the Cardinals do over the next three. The half-game lead, as predicted in this space, could allow the Cards to back in to the division title.

San Diego is all but assured of a playoff spot, since they will have a three-game lead over the Phillies any minute now. Their lead in the division is only one game, and they could easily cough that up. Los Angeles has a two-game lead in the wild card, which should be safe, and it will be interesting to see how hard they chase the division crown if they officially clinch a playoff spot today.

Philadelphia's playoff hopes hinge on three potential scenarios:

1. They sweep the Marlins, and the Padres get swept by the D-Backs, dropping them into a tie (and possibly a three-way tie with Los Angeles). This would give the Phils the chance to play a tie-breaker game for the wild card spot.

2. They take 2 of 3 from the Marlins, and the Dodgers get swept by the Giants, or they sweep the Marlins, and the Dodgers win one of three, putting the two teams in a tie. In the latter scenario, we would have a three-way tie if the Padres also get swept.

3. They sweep, and the Dodgers get swept, allowing them to leapfrog LA and claim the wild card spot.

Given that, I'll let you decide how the Phillies' playoff chances are looking.

Game of the Day
Houston at Atlanta. Roger Clemens makes his last start before his inevitable abbreviated retirement, unless the Astros can make the playoffs. Roger has a mixed record in big games, but it's imperative that he comes up big here. His counterpart who will attempt to pull the upset? Rookie Chuck James, who sports a 10-4 record, and 3.94 ERA. Stranger things have happened.

There's Something About Suzy

2006-09-28T12:13:00.001-06:00

What is it about Suzy Kolber?

She's sent Joe Namath to rehab, inspired a blog, and even prompted wordsmith David Hirshey to gush. (We're still waiting to hear from her prom date, the private detective, and Brett Favre).

Now, she has a new admirer in New York Giants tackle Bob Whitfield. (Read the entire interview. It's even better than what Deadspin quotes in their article).

There's a lot to love about Suzy, who is uncharacteristically peppy and attractive for a 42 year old woman, or a sideline reporter for that matter. Oh yeah, and she also comes off as literate and relatively knowledgeable, a rare feat for a graduate of The U.

So here's to Suzy, one of the bright spots in an increasingly darkening landscape of professional football broadcasting.

(Yes, this post was just an excuse to link to the Whitfield interview. Good times).

Codgers, Coots And Alter Kockers

2006-09-28T09:38:00.000-06:00

A wonderful ditty on the joys and pains of baseball, courtesy of one Michael Chabon.

Pennant Watch: Thursday, September 28

2006-09-28T09:15:00.000-06:00

New York Pulls Ahead
The Yankees' victory over Baltimore, coupled with Detroit's loss to Toronto, has put the Bronx Bombers a game up in the race for home field. The good news for Detroit is that Minnesota also lost (to the lowly Royals), preserving the Tigers' one game lead in the AL Central.

Cardinals Get Off The Schneid
Thanks to Albert Pujols' 3-run homer in the 8th, the Cards broke their seven-game losing streak, and briefly opened up a 2 game lead in the NL Central.

Extras! Extras!
The Astros and Phillies both went the distance, and then some.

Houston pulled into a tie with Pittsburgh in the top of the 9th, then scored in the 15th to win, and remain a game and a half back of the Cardinals.

Philadelphia blew a 9th inning lead in Washington, but managed to get out of a bases loaded jam, giving them second life in extra innings. The teams traded runs in the 10th, then Philly scored 2 in the 14th. They gave up one in the bottom of that inning to the Nats, but managed to hold on and win. Philly's win keeps them a game back of the Dodgers for the wild card lead.

Game of the Day
I have to pick two today, since the Houston/Pittsburgh and Philadelphia/Washington matchups have a lot in common.

Both teams are coming off emotional, extra-inning games. They also need to keep winning to have a shot at cracking the playoff round. Today's game not only presents the opportunity for a letdown, but their bullpens have to be exhausted, especially after 5 (or 6) extra innings of work last night, and so must be several of their position players.

Houston doesn't get much rest, as they have a noon-hour start in Pittsburgh. On the plus side, they send their ace, Roy Oswalt, to the hill. If anyone is capable of a shut-down performance to keep the team on the winning track, and give the pen some much needed rest, it's him.

Philadelphia sends Jon Lieber to the hill to face rookie Michael O'Connor. Neither has good (or even average) numbers this year, so the bullpens could be in for another long night. They desperately need a win, though, since the Dodgers send Brad Penny to the hill to face Byung-Hung Kim in a very favorable matchup for the boys in blue.

Also Worth Watching
Brad Radke, coming off a shoulder injury, starts for Minnesota. If he's healthy enough to contribute, the Twins' chances of success in the playoffs are looking a lot better.

Pennant Watch: Wednesday, September 27

2006-09-27T09:58:00.000-06:00

A's Are In
Oakland finally managed to nail down a playoff spot last night, following their win and the Angels' loss to Texas.

Elsewhere in the American League
The Yankees, Tigers, and Twins all won, meaning the races for home field and the AL Central crown remain unchanged.

Philly Loses Ground
A one-run loss to Washington is all the more crushing when you have a Chase Utley home run ruled foul, and it turns out to be the difference between a loss and a tie game that would have gone into extra innings. Los Angeles beat up on Colorado to open up a one game lead over the Phils in the race for the NL Wild Card.

Sssssshhhhhh!!!
Avi points out that the odds of Houston passing St. Louis are extremely slim. Nonetheless, the Astros haven't gone away just yet. With 5 games left on the schedule, they have climbed to within a game and a half of the division lead. That half game is going to be a huge obstacle for Houston. St. Louis had a game cancelled somewhere along the line, meaning that they're going to finish the season with 161 games played. It's possible that, if Houston wins only one more game in their last five than St. Louis does, the Cards will back into the playoffs with a 1/2 game edge over the Astros. This means that Houston probably has to win 4, if not all 5 of their remaining games to make it in. Let's hope that St. Louis doesn't back in on a 1/2 game difference, though if this current home series is any indication, their reward will be the right to get swept by the Padres.

Game of the Day
Philadelphia at Washington. The Phils need a win not only to keep pace/gain ground on Los Angeles (who sends the Derek Lowe Face to the hill in Colorado), but to ensure that they don't suffer a letdown on the heels of the Chase Utley homer that wasn't. Rookie Cole Hamels gets the start against Pedro Astacio (he's still around?) in game three of this four game set.

T.O. Attempts Suicide

2006-09-27T08:31:00.000-06:00

Whoa.

Death of a Legend

2006-09-26T23:27:00.000-06:00

We'd be a very poor sports blog indeed if we failed to note the passing of John Byron Nelson Jr. at the age of 94.

The Texan's competitive career was brief, spanning 1935-42, and then from '44-46 after which he retired to his Fairway Ranch, making periodic appearances at the Masters and Ryder Cup.

His singular achievement was winning 18 PGA tournaments in 1945, including 11 in a row, and he is widely recognized as the model for the modern golf swing. The Golf Hall of Fame expresses his dominance succinctly: "In 75 starts from 1944 to the end of 1946, he won 34 times and finished second 16 times. In those three years, he finished out of the top 10 just once, with a tie for 13th at Pensacola in 1946."

Less recognized is the true meaning of his 113 consecutive cuts made, a record that withstood assaults from Nicklaus (105), Irwin (86) and Finsterwald (72) before falling to Tiger Woods (142).

Today the "cut" is understood to be the players in a four-day tournament who continue play on the weekend. Not so. By the PGA's terms the cut means those who finish "in the money," and in Nelson's day that was a difficult place to be. Many tournaments, including the Masters, paid only the first 12 finishers, and few paid more than 20. Tiger Woods's streak is impressive, but it is not the same achievement -- not in an era where a typical tournament pays the top-70 finishers.

As always, the death of a legend opens the media vaults, and in all but one instance they're much better stocked than our operation:

ESPN does a detailed run-down of Nelson's life and the championship years;

the PGA runs a profile and condolence book, with Ron Green sorting out Nelson's achievements relative to the courses and players of the day;

the BBC gracelessly concedes that Nelson was "one of American golf's greatest ever players;"

the New York Times aims for the authoritative (with Nelson edging out Paul Vance, co-writer of “Itsy Bitsy Teenie Weenie Yellow Polka Dot Bikini,” for lead on the obituary page);

Sports Illustrated tugs at the heart-strings and fogs the mind by moving straight past the man in favour of the $94 million, the Dallas PGA tournament (named in Nelson's honour) has raised for local charities; and

the Guardian has the first reaction from Nicklaus and Palmer...but don't get too excited -- they were quoting the player's web-sites rather than picking up the phone.

Turning On The Jets

2006-09-26T22:55:00.000-06:00

A week ago, the quest for 20-70 appeared dead. Jose Reyes had 19 homeruns -- getting one more seemed likely -- but was stuck on 57 steals.

He'd entered September with 55 steals. Having achieved single months with double-digit steals seven times in his brief career, the 70 mark looked like a stretch, but still within reach.
Then Jose stopped running. From September 1st to 22nd he recorded just 2 stolen bases in 7 attempts. Moreover, he recorded just two doubles and one triple. His legs and his judgement were failing him.

All that changed this weekend when the Mets were at home to Washington. Although his team lost three of the four games Reyes was up to his old tricks, stealing five bases in five attempts and getting on base at a .600 clip. He became the first Met to steal 60 bases in consecutive seasons.

He continued his run tonight with a lead-off single and steal against John Smoltz. That brings Reyes up to 19 and 62, still a far cry from 20-70. With only 5 games left, and the Mets preparing for the playoffs, it seems improbable that Reyes will close the gap. But his late-season surge has given us reason to hope.

	9/26/06	On-pace
HR	19	20
SB	62	65

Pennant Watch: Tuesday, September 26

2006-09-26T09:36:00.000-06:00

Minnesota Clinches
The Twinkies beat up on Kansas City, and thanks to that effort and the White Sox's collapse in Cleveland, they have clinched a playoff spot. There is still a lot to play for, as they could still take the AL Central, and even home field for the American League playoffs.

Detroit Loses Ground...By Doing Nothing
The Tigers were idle Monday, and two foes made up ground by winning their games. The Yankees pulled into a tie for first overall in the league, while Minnesota cut it's deficit in the AL Central to one game.

Stuck on Two
The Oakland A's magic number didn't change, as the Angels won to keep the heat on, while Oakland blew a 3-run lead in the 9th to Seattle, and dropped the game in 10. Rich Harden makes his second start tonight since returning from injuries in the hopes of getting the A's one step closer to the playoffs.

A Preview of the NLDS...Or Not
In a matchup of division leaders, the Padres went into St. Louis and beat the Cardinals, extending their lead in the west to 2 games over the idle Dodgers. The Cardinals, meanwhile, continue to feel the heat from the red hot Houston Astros, who beat Philadelphia to climb to within 2 1/2 games of the St. Lunatics.

Philadelphia's loss drops them into a tie with the Dodgers for the wild card lead. Both teams have 6 games to go, all on the road. The Phillies open up in Washington tonight, then play in Florida over the weekend. The Dodgers are at Colorado, then San Francisco to finish up.

Game of the Day
I could pick any one of the games with playoff implications, but the biggest one from my perspective is San Diego at St. Louis. The Cards need a win in the worst way, and if they can't get one from their ace, Chris Carpenter, they're going to be in real trouble down the stretch. The Padres counter with veteran Woody Williams, who has surprisingly good numbers this season (10-5 record, 3.53 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). While the Cards need to reverse their slide, the Padres are looking to close in on the West crown, and home field advantage in their NLDS matchup. Another win or two over the Cards will get them closer to where they can rest their players over the final weekend, and have their rotation in order for next week.

Madden Curse Strikes Again!

2006-09-25T17:00:00.000-06:00

That was fast.

After three games, Shaun Alexander, the cover boy for Madden 2007, has a small fracture in his left foot, and could miss up to a month of action. He becomes the latest in a string of athletes to appear on the cover of an EA game, then suffer an injury or stroke of bad luck almost immediately thereafter.

Let this be a lesson to anyone who laughed in the face of the Madden curse and drafted Alexander first overall in their fantasy league.

Pennant Watch: Monday, September 25

2006-09-25T11:49:00.000-06:00

We're T-minus 7 days from the end of the regular season. For the final week of the season, Sports Matters will be providing daily updates on the pennant races as Major League Baseball heads into the playoffs.

Detroit Ends 19 Year Funk
For the first time since September of 1987 (or to put it another way, my first month of Kindergarten), the Detroit Tigers have clinched a playoff spot. Also of importance, their sweep of the Royals, and the Yankees' struggles against Tampa Bay have vaulted them into first overall in the league; they hold a 1/2 game advantage over the Yanks. They also hold a 1 1/2 game lead over the Twins in the AL Central, so they still have a lot to play for. In any case, welcome back to the big time, Detroit Tigers.

Two Is The Magic Number
For both the A's (AL West) and Twins (AL Wild Card), who can both clinch tonight with a win and a loss by the teams that are chasing them. With leads of 6 and 5 1/2 games, respectively, neither team should be in too much trouble, though it might be a bit concerning for Oakland fans that they failed to close out the division at home against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels will try to keep their slim pennant hopes alive at home against Texas, while the Oakland Athletics of Oakland-Alameda County head north to Seattle looking to reverse their fortunes. They're riding a 15-game winning streak over the Ms, so I say things are looking up.

As for the Twinkies, they host the bottom-feeding Kansas City Royals, fresh off a sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers, which clinched that team's spot in the playoff round. Can they perform a similar favor for Minnesota? Likely. Despite playing the Twins relatively tough (they've won 6 of 15 meetings so far), I don't see them taking more than 1 in the baggy dome. 3 of 4 in this series should be enough to cement Minnesota's trip to the playoffs.

Ssssshhhh!
After sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals at home, the Houston Astros have quietly established themselves as a stalking horse in the NL Central. With a 3 1/2 game deficit, and a mere 7 games to make it up, things aren't looking good for the Astros, but they might just manage to make this week a little bit more interesting than we had originally expected. They have a huge makeup game in Philly today, then they go on the road to play Pittsburgh and Atlanta. Despite a losing record on the road, it's not completely improbable that the 'Stros could come back. The Pirates, a solid 41-34 at home, will be more of a challenge than people expect, while Atlanta isn't a very good home team, and has nothing (but pride) to play for.

The Cardinals host the Padres starting tonight, who are looking to extend their divsion lead over the idle Dodgers (who are 1 1/2 back in the west, and 1/2 a game behind the Phils for the wild card). Even with a dud of a series against San Diego, St. Louis should be safe, since they close with 4 at home against Milwaukee, the 4th worst road team in the majors. Then again, we all thought that the St. Lunatics would have closed it out by now, so who knows?

Game of the Day
Houston at Philadelphia. Both teams need a win to keep pace/hold on to their leads. Houston sends unproven Matt Albers to the hill, while the Phillies look to the 4-0 (despite his 5.47 ERA) Randy "Teen" Wolf to keep their hot streak going.

Alberta Baseball Confederacy Week 26: The Finals

2006-09-24T23:27:00.000-06:00

Half a year’s worth of baseball comes to an end this week as the major leagues wrap-up the regular season and the Alberta Baseball Confederacy presents its first Championship showdown. Week 25 offered little suspense, as the Northern Miners and Vancouver Drizzle each won their division championships matches by 140 point margins.

The Miners’ pitching staff delivered five wins and three saves, led by a 50-point week from their regular season pitching leader Aaron Harang. Garrett Atkins’ 35-points set the pace for Miners’ batters. Atkins’ contribution came in a three game series at home against the Giants where he went 9-for-13 with 10 RBI, 6 runs and 19 bases.

The Nuke LaLoosh Fan Club failed to deliver in the NEU division final, falling more than 30-points back on the batting side of the ledger, and producing just one win and no saves from the pitchers.

Meanwhile the Drizzle enjoyed 30-point performances from Aramis Ramirez, Mike Cameron, and Magglio Ordonez, and the pitching staff turned in six wins and three saves. A resurgent Francisco Cordero led the team from the bullpen, turning in two wins and three saves for a remarkable 41-points.

The GWTA division final saw the demise of one of the league’s most dominant teams, the Pete Munro Doctrine. The fall could hardly have been swifter or more surprising. Entering the season’s final week with a 60-28 record, the Doctrine coughed-up the league-lead by going 0-4, and then posted the lowest score of any team in the first playoff week. Only the bye accorded to division winners extended their season. Disaster struck in the division final, with first baseman Jason Giambi succumbing to injury without scoring a point, and DH Carlos Delgado going scoreless in five games. Coming after the loss of Travis Hafner on September 1st, the Doctrine's sluggers appeal peculiarly cursed. A valiant 39-point effort by Chase Utley was not enough, and Kenny Rogers excepted, no pitcher cracked the 15-point barrier.

The Miners and Drizzle will now duel for the prize. Both will be at the mercy of MLB managers. With the NL playoff races going down to the wire, Greg Maddux (Miners) and Brett Myers (Drizzle) may lose their currently scheduled second starts if the Dodgers or Phillies clinch. And veterans from squads whose playoff fates are determined are likely to rest in the final week.

5 Questions About Week 3 Of The NFL

2006-09-24T10:58:00.000-06:00

Welcome to the first in what might become a weekly feature. Basically, it’s 5 questions (maybe more, depending on my mood), about the state of the NFL, or previewing the games in a given week.

Credit for the first three questions go to Eric Kuselius and The Sports Bash, since I heard them raised on his show. I only heard his opinion on number three though, so if I strongly agree or disagree with him on the first two, it’s purely by coincidence.

1. Which of the 2-0 teams will make the playoffs?
11 teams are perfect through 2 weeks. On average, 2/3 of the teams that start 2-0 in a given season will make the playoffs. Let’s figure out, from most likely to least likely, who the 7 or 8 playoff teams will be.

1. New England Patriots
The Miami Dolphins, expected to be their main contenders for the AFC East title, are 0-2, and have already been exposed for having weaknesses on both sides of the ball. The Pats already own victories over their other division foes, the Bills and the Jets, both of whom have mediocre written all over them. They may not be a juggernaut, but short of a rash of injuries, I can’t see anything keeping this team out of the playoffs.

2. Indianapolis Colts
Though their running game and defensive front seven have question marks, it’s hard to imagine this team not making the playoffs. Peyton will have a huge passing season, and 4 dates with the Texans and the Titans will help boost their record. They will fight for the division crown with an improved Jags team, who is also looking very playoff-like right now.

3. Seattle Seahawks
Even if the Rams perform like I think they will and contend for the division, it’s hard to imagine the Seahawks not making the cut in the NFC. This will be a good club, assuming their offensive line comes together.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
For many of the same reasons that the Colts are high on this list, it’s hard to imagine that Jacksonville won’t earn a wild card berth, if not better. Their defense is ferocious, Byron Leftwich and the young receiving corps keep getting better, and Fred Taylor is a workhorse when healthy.

5. Cincinnati Bengals
My pick for the Super Bowl comes in this low because of Chad Johnson’s injury, and the fact that their division looks strong this year.

6/7/8. Chicago Bears, San Diego Chargers, Baltimore Ravens
I grouped these three teams together because they have all looked dominant, albeit against bottom feeders. I’m waiting to see how they match up against competitive teams before I anoint them as contenders.
9. Atlanta Falcons
We’re after the cutoff here, though I could have easily put this team 6th. My hesitations come from the fact that they match up against the deep AFC North in inter-conference play, and I have concerns about the likelihood of keeping Vick and Dunn healthy. I probably should have put them ahead of the Ravens though.

10. Minnesota
This looks to be a good, but not that good Minnesota club. They’ll be a tough opponent, but I don’t think they have the talent to finish much better than .500, which will probably leave them just short of a wild card berth.

11. New Orleans
I love this team, especially with their explosive offense, but I’m not sure if the defense will show up and do its part. I forecast a lot of high-scoring matchups (both wins and losses) for the Saints this year, and like the Vikings, a mark in the .500-range. Good, but not playoff good.

2. Which of the 0-2 teams will make the playoffs?
About 12% of the teams that start 0-2 make the playoffs, so things don’t look good for the 11 winless squads. Count on one of them bucking the odds.

1. Carolina
They get Steve Smith back today, and still have a balanced team on both sides of the ball. The offense will really take off when DeShaun Foster gets hurt/benched, letting DeAngelo Williams excel as the feature back. I think they’ll be in the playoff hunt.

2. Miami
If Daunte Culpepper cuts down on his mistakes, and the secondary comes together, this team could make a run. If not, it will be a long season in south Florida.

3. Kansas City
If Jake Plummer and the Broncos continue to sputter on offense, and the Chargers struggle against good competition, and Trent Green comes back soon and shows no lingering effects from his injury, this team could sneak into the playoffs. Oh, who am I kidding, we’re reaching already.

4. Washington
Only if the defense gels, Clinton Portis has a huge year, and Joe Gibbs makes the gutsy call and goes with Jason Campbell at quarterback. It’s a very unlikely scenario, but given how unpredictable the NFC East looks, I’m not going to rule it out…for another week or two at most.

5/6/7/8/9/10/11. Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Houston, Detroit, Green Bay, Tennessee, Oakland
It must be a good feeling to know that your season is over before the first official day of fall.

3. Should the Titans start Vince Young?
Some, like Eric Kuselius, say yes. The Titans aren’t going anywhere this season (we all agree on that), so the argument goes that you should get your future franchise quarterback as much experience as possible, since you’re going to miss the playoffs regardless of who’s taking your snaps.

I disagree. All young quarterbacks have a learning curve; being a run-first quarterback in college, Vince Young has an especially steep curve. Not only is he learning the NFL game, he’s still refining his pure passing game. Sending him out there behind a shaky offensive line won’t help him. It will jeopardize his confidence and his health. He’ll progress more by playing a few series a game, and spending the rest of his time on the sidelines learning the nuances of the NFL game. The difference between Young and Kerry Collins might be the difference between winning 2 games and 4 games. Let Young get his feet wet once he’s settled into the league, and has a few more bodies to protect him, and a few more weapons to get the ball to.

4. Is This The Most Important Game of Jake Plummer’s Career?
No, but it’s close.

The most important would probably have been last year’s AFC championship game, since he could have led the Broncos into the Super Bowl. On Sunday night, at New England, Jake needs a strong performance to make people forget about the two shaky games that have opened up this year. If Jake struggles and the team loses, expect the calls for rookie Jay Cutler to step in to keep growing and growing.

5. Can Eli Manning beat the Seahawks on the Road?
I think it will be close, but I see the Giants coming up just short. Eli’s a good quarterback, but I’m not sure if the G-Men are quite there as a team.

On a related note, though, I had a dream last week that the Giants beat the Colts in the Super Bowl, 29-18. Take that for what it’s worth….probably nothing.

Enjoy the games!

Pennant Watch: Baseball Heads For Home

2006-09-23T00:25:00.000-06:00

There are 9 days left in the baseball season, and while many of the races seem to be settled, there is still plenty of intrigue to go around.

Here’s where we stand on the pennant races:

American League
New York has clinched the East, while Oakland has all but wrapped up the West. In the Central, Detroit has a slim lead over Minnesota, who in turn has an increasingly comfortable lead in the wild card race over the defending champion Chicago White Sox. Suffice to say, while the divisional round matchups have yet to be determined, the field of four is pretty much set.

National League
The New York Mets have clinched the East, and home field advantage through the first two rounds, while St. Louis is close to clinching the Central. Out West, San Diego and Los Angeles are engaged in a seesaw battle for the division lead, with the runner-up having occupied the wild card spot in recent days. However, they’re challenged by the resurgent Philadelphia Phillies, who sit a mere half game out of the wild card spot – currently held by the Dodgers. In turn, the Dodgers are a mere half game back of the Padres for the division lead. Whoever wins the West will also have to jockey with St. Louis to finish second overall in the league, thus earning home field advantage for the NLDS.

Here’s what to watch in the final week:

Who Finished Where in the American League?
The first round matchups are almost certain to see New York hosting the wild card winner, and the AL Central winner hosting Oakland to open up. This will occur because of the rule that doesn’t allow the wild card team to face the winner of its division. Even if the Yankees, who are ahead of the Central-leading Tigers by a game and a half overall, cough up the overall league lead, they’ll still get the wild card winner in round one.

Detroit, with 5 games left against Kansas City and 3 against Toronto, should hold on in the Central and have a good shot at lapping the Yankees. New York gets Tampa Bay this weekend before closing against Baltimore and Toronto. This battle will only come into play if both New York and Detroit advance in round one, but is worth watching nonetheless.

Smart money is on New York hosting Minnesota, and Detroit hosting Oakland.

Who Finishes Where in the National League?
We know that the Mets are finishing first. The Cardinals are racing to lock up their division, and to finish second in the league. They currently trail San Diego by a game, but get to host the Padres next week. That series is sandwiched by matchups against potential spoilers Houston and Milwaukee. The Cards will have to earn home field the hard way.

As for the aforementioned Padres, they’re hosting Pittsburgh this weekend, then following their set in St. Louis, they finish up at Arizona. Not the easiest road, but the playoff chances are looking good for the Whale’s Vagina.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are currently squaring off against Arizona. They then go on the road to Colorado, before ending with a rivalry set in San Francisco. Why Dodgers fans should worry: the road record for the boys in blue is 33-42 this year; the sub-.500 Rockies and Giants both sport winning records at home (42-34 and 42-33 respectively). The Dodgers might need a sweep of Arizona this weekend to be in a good position to hold on to the wild card.

In contrast to the Dodgers, the wild card-chasing Phillies are an even .500 at home, but 7 games above .500 on the road. They’re hosting the Florida Marlins, 5 games out of the wild card and clinging to life, this weekend, then face Roger Clemens and the Astros on Monday in a make-up game. They then go on the road to face Washington, and close at Florida next weekend. That’s one series they should win, and one that could be a real spoiler.

I’m not ready to call the wild card race, but I’m pretty certain that San Diego will take the west, and finish in second place overall. In fact, with a rotation led by Jake Peavy and Chris Young, and supported by veterans David Wells and Woody Williams, it’s going to be very, very hard for me to pick against them in the NL.

As for the wild card, flip a coin. Though I refuse to cheer for them until they move back to Brooklyn, I’d kind of like to see the Dodgers make it in, in the hopes that we’ll see a Glavine vs. Maddux pitching matchup.

Before we go, three intriguing storylines to watch:

Death Watch: Joe Girardi
Because coaxing a .500 record out of a bunch of rookies and a $15 million payroll isn't enough to keep your job these days.

Death Watch: Game of Shadows
The whistle-blowing authors are heading to jail lest they change their minds and reveal their source on the grand jury leak.

Death Watch: Barry Bonds
His career, that is to say. Is he beginning the final week of his playing career, or will he come back for a swan song in 2007 with San Francisco or another club?

And finally, three individual accomplishments:

40-40-40!
Noting to actually watch here, but Alfonso Soriano is baseball’s first 40-40-40 man.

20-70 Watch
I’m sure Avi will keep us updated on Mr. Reyes’ chances.

Ryan Howard Home Run Watch
He’s at 58, with 9 games to go. 4 more dingers will earn him the unofficial single season record, which doesn’t mean anything, but should cement the MVP crown for him.

Be The Next Theo Epstein

2006-09-20T17:02:00.000-06:00

Add this to the list of things that I wish had existed in the late 1990s. Sigh.

To any of our readers are in that demographic, get your applications in stat, and take advantage of the opportunities that didn't exist when I was in high school.