Now What?: A Red Sox Post-Mortem

The departure of Theo Epstein brings to an end what has been, at least for this Red Sox fan, a profoundly disappointing season. Furthermore, this announcement, coupled with the departure of Assistant GM (and logical successor) Josh Byrnes for Arizona last week doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence heading into the off-season. And if David Wells and Manny Ramirez get what they want, they’ll soon be following Theo and Josh out of town.

So how did we get here? Let’s examine the major changes between the team that was on the field for Game 4 of the World Series, and the one that took the field this past April:

Shortstop: Energetic, defensively sound Orlando Cabrera is replaced by Edgar Renteria, who disappointed offensively, and committed an egregious 30 errors.

Outfield/Bench: Reserves Gabe Kapler and Dave Roberts, good for speed and defense off the bench, are replaced by Jay Payton, who once competed with Benny Agbayani and Timo Perez for at-bats while on the Mets, and was profoundly miserable in the role of 4th Outfielder for the Red Sox from Day 1. First baseman (and defensive wizard) Doug Mientkiewicz is also shipped out of town for a bag of baseballs (to replace the one from Game 4 of the World Series that he refused to return) and a stiff corpse to warm the bench in Pawtucket. Middle infielder Pokey Reese, a superb defender, also leaves via free agency.

Rotation: Pedro and Derek Lowe walk as free agents, replaced by Matt Clement (a power-pitcher who’s yet to fulfill his potential), 42-year old David Wells, and reclamation project Wade Miller.

Despite Clement’s potential, only Renteria seemed to be a possible upgrade. That, of course, doesn’t happen.

Keep in mind that Curt Schilling starts the season on the DL too. When he comes back, he gets shelled in a few appearances, and then heads back to the DL. Somehow the Sox stay in contention, largely because the Yankees have a terrible start, and the Orioles cool off in a hurry after a hot April and May.

Joining Schilling on the DL is closer Keith Foulke and off-season acquisition Wade Miller, while many of the stalwarts of the past few years (Millar, Bellhorn, Embree) are seriously struggling. The following key moves are made in-season:

In: 2B Tony Graffanino (acquired from KC), OF Gabe Kapler (summoned from Japan), RP Jon Papelbon (called up from the minor leagues), RP Mike Stanton (acquired from Washington)

Out: 2B Mark Bellhorn (released), RP Alan Embree (released). Both end up with the Yankees, funny enough.

Things looked good through the summer, as the Sox held a steady lead in the AL East. Even as the Yankees began to rally in August, there wasn’t much to worry about, since Schilling and Foulke were expected to round into form any day. Well, that never happened. Schilling struggled in the closer role, then struggled some more after being returned to the rotation. Foulke self-imploded, forcing Mike Timlin into the closer role. Meanwhile, Jon Papelbon was the only reliever who was remotely dependable at this point, and games (and the division lead) started slipping away. The Yanks finally took over first in the final two weeks, and the Sox seemed content to wander ahead and try and secure a wild card berth. Which they did, on the final day of the season, after New York clinched the division at Fenway, and the Cleveland Indians self-destructed in the final week of the season. It was a predictable collapse, in hindsight. The bullpen was shaky, and they weren’t getting much production from the lineup – outside of Manny and Papi. In many ways, it’s a surprise they were even in contention at that point of the season. As has been pointed out by the likes of Simmons, they were a .500 team if not for the efforts of Papi Ortiz. And he’s right. It’s rare in a sport like baseball where one player can almost single-handedly lift a team. You see it in basketball all the time (in fact, Allen Iverson’s entire career in Philly is the perfect example), since a star player will play 40 out of 48 minutes, and can conceivably touch the ball on every offensive possession; but in baseball, where your star hitter will bat 4-5 times a game, it’s much more difficult. This makes it all the more impressive when a player like Ortiz (or Barry Bonds, the other example that springs to mind) can pull it off.

That brings us to the playoffs. While some will point to Graffanino’s error in Game 2 as a catalyst for the Boston collapse, the fact is they were outplayed by a better team. They got hammered in Game 1, as Matt Clement (who struggled all second half) brought nothing to the table. They had plenty of chances to come back in Game 2, and couldn’t do it. The final innings of Game 3 was one of the most frustrating things for me to see. Aside from Papi and Manny, it didn’t seem like the Sox cared that they were mere outs away from elimination. They were going through the motions. It wasn’t a surprise that they went out in three straight. Frankly, there’s a good argument to be made that they overachieved to get to the playoffs in the first place. This is what bothered me the most. If the players didn’t seem to care, why should I? Yet I couldn’t help it. I was in a legitimate funk after the sweep.

Anyway, the off-season got off to a rough start too; Manny Ramirez once again demanded a trade, while Assistant GM Josh Byrnes left for Arizona. Now Theo. Just hours before his contract ran out, he announced he was leaving. So mere days before free agency begins, the Sox ownership are left holding the bag with no GM or Assistant GM in place, the future of the rest of their front office staff in question, and players upset with Theo’s departure. While searching for a GM, negotiations with free agents like Johnny Damon are on hold (which might not be a bad thing), and the organization seems directionless while it sorts out if 2006 is going to be a rebuilding, reloading, or contending year, and who’s going to be steering the ship.

Back to Theo for a second. There’s no doubt that he’s a talented GM, and made some great moves to build the 2004 championship team. It’s been said before, but bears repeating: he also lucked out a lot with the moves that fell through. He deserves full marks for acquiring the likes of Schilling and Cabrera, but if the de facto Manny/Nomar for ARod/Ordonez swap goes through in the winter of 2003, they don’t win the series. Not with Magglio’s knees giving out, and ARod playing the post-season with his hands wrapped around his neck. They certainly don’t acquire Cabrera’s energy and defense, and maybe not even Mientkiewicz’ glove at the deadline. So while we don’t want to take away anything he did, it bears mention that he was $15 million away from pulling the trigger on a trade that never allows him to make the crucial deadline deal. He also deserves scrutiny for the off-season moves after the championship year. With the possible upgrade from Lowe to Wells, you can’t really defend any of them. Renteria’s a liability, Clement bombed after a spectacular first half, Jay Payton pouted his way out of town, with the Sox getting nothing in return, and I don’t think Theo himself even remembers who they acquired for Mientkiewicz. Somehow, he’s completely escaped the wrath of fans and the media for making these moves. Maybe it’s because of the post-championship honeymoon period, but I don’t see any reason these moves should escape scrutiny.

Is Theo a good GM? I think so. I liked a lot of his moves, and while some didn’t work out (Kim, Jeremy Giambi, etc.) he was certainly willing to gamble and take risks, while also avoiding the urge to constantly tinker. That’s a rare trait amongst GMs. There are some good prospects coming through the system, but none are true blue-chippers. So while I think Theo was valuable, he’s certainly not irreplaceable.

So why am I worried? Two reasons:

• His departure alienated a number of players, who have all spoken out in the past few days. From rookies like Papelbon to clubhouse leaders Schilling and Varitek, nobody seems happy, and all the blame is being directed towards the owners.

• I’m not confident that the Sox will hire someone effective to replace him.

The second point isn’t completely warranted; though the Sox history is littered with failed GMs like Lou Gorman and Dan Duquette, these owners seem different. They’ve made a lot of bold; good moves that previous owners wouldn’t have had the foresight to make. Still, it’s a hunch. With Byrnes gone, there’s no heir apparent within the organization. They could promote internally (like they did with Theo), go for an established GM (Kevin Towers being the leading candidate), or hire a first time GM from outside the organization. There’s a lot of uncertainty regardless of the decision they make, and with the impending roster overhaul, that just compounds things. Theo would have provided stability in one area of the organization, now that’s gone too.

So where should the Sox go from here? First, they need to accept that they’re not going to win the 2006 World Series - in fact, right now I'd place their chances behind those of Chicago, Cleveland, Toronto, New York, Oakland and Los Angeles. (And Minnesota's a couple of roster moves away from leapfrogging them too). And that's just in the American League.

They should be building their team with an eye towards 2007 and 2008, when their prospects should begin making an impact. There also aren’t enough impact free agents to fix the pitching staff. If I were to hired as GM tomorrow, here’s what I would do:

Manny Ramirez
Don’t jump into a trade. If you get a package containing at least one blue chip prospect (such as Lastings Milledge of the Mets or Conor Jackson of the D-Backs), then listen. Don’t take on older players. The rumored Sox-Backs-Angels trade that would net Boston Darin Erstad and Troy Glaus would set the organization back. Not only do those players not replace Manny’s production, but they’re on the downside of their careers, meaning it’s likely they never will. Additionally, since Glaus would likely play first (so Youk can play third), where does Erstad fit in? Can he still play Centerfield? Effectively?

If you don’t get any blue-chippers, hold out. Let this drag out into the spring if necessary. You can’t afford to dump a player of Ramirez’ talent without getting something (potentially) comparable in return.

David Wells
Give him his wish, and try to get a serviceable pitcher or decent prospect from the Padres. He has maybe a year left, and his back's a liability to go out at any time.

Bill Mueller and Kevin Millar
They’re as good as gone, anyway.

Johnny Damon
Let him walk. He’s going to get a 4-5 year deal somewhere, and likely won’t be worth the money anymore by year 3 at the latest. Save the money and sign a stopgap like Dave Roberts. Of course, with Theo gone the odds have jumped through the roof that the owners will sign him for whatever he wants, simply to avoid more bad PR.

Pitching
Stay away from BJ Ryan. Craig Hansen will be ready to close in a year’s time anyway. Move Papelbon to the rotation (Clement, Schilling, Wakefield, Arroyo, Papelbon) would be respectable, and search out players you can sign at a good value to solidify the bullpen.

So what do I think will actually happen? My money says that Damon resigns, Ramirez holds out into the new year and is eventually shipped out on the eve of spring training, and nothing much happens with the pitching staff (save a Wells trade to the west coast) and whoever they hire a first-timer for GM (meaning no Kevin Towers).

We’ll see how things shake out over the next few weeks. All I know is that after the past season – few weeks especially – this Sox fan needs some good news for a change.