Bonds Set To Boom, Then Collapse

It’s six weeks to the World Cup, therefore bond sales are going up.

An absurd example of false cause from a freshman logic class? Apparently not.

Bloomberg reporter Sebastian Boyd had the fun task of writing-up the true story of this unusual relationship. The Globe has picked it up, and others are sure to follow in the fun.

Apparently European investment bankers are so besotted with football that business grinds to a halt during the quadrennial tournament.

Based on data from French bank BNP Paribas, Boyd reports that “Industrial companies increased bond sales by 48 percent in May 2002, just before the last World Cup started, and new offerings fell by half in June while the matches were being played.”

Bond underwriter Pierre Lebel backed up the 2002 numbers with a recollection of the ’98 tournament, held in France: “The market virtually came to a halt.”

Lebel is advising client companies that need money to raise it now, noting that the post-Cup market is also expected to crater because of July vacations.

There was no word on whether an early exit by France or Germany would help get the markets back on their feet faster.

The Korea-Japan tournament, with its North American schedule of overnight and early morning matches, was a tough grind. But between the magic of videotape, and rising early for a few special matches, I managed to enjoy the tournament and stay working.

Slacking off for a month while staying at the office? Let’s just call it a European vacation. You know, on top of the eleven weeks they spend decamped at a pebbled beach.