Alberta Baseball Confederacy: Week 22
With two weeks left in the regular season, the Alberta Baseball Confederacy's playoff-bound teams are almost decided. Three of the six playoff teams have clinched, and only the race for the third position in the Greater Western Trapper Alliance Division is really close.
It's also the time of year where those teams on the outside wonder what might have been. It's cold comfort to list off the injuries or managing decisions that cost the team the few more wins it needed. A more effective coddling, perhaps, would be provided by evidence that the team performed well enough to win -- indeed, deserved to win -- but fell upon some hard luck.
Fortunately, we have access to an excellent tool: Pythagorean standings. (To be more precise, the following calculations are based on the Pythagenpat method.) Now widely used, the Pythagorean standings are a Jamesian invention that derived a team's 'expected' win-loss record from the total runs scored for and against in its matches. Those with a greater number of actual wins than expected can take the result as a cautionary sign and fret about a fall; those who are underperforming can hope that their win total will soon rebound.
What do the results show for our league? In each division, the team on the outside of the playoff race would be going to the playoffs if the Expected Win totals were used. The injustice is greatest in the NEU Division, where the Nuke LaLoosh Fan Club underperformed their expected wins by 7, and the playoff-bound On Top outperformed their expected wins by 5. The difference of 12 wins far exceeds the gap of 6 wins that separates the teams. In the GWTA division there is still an opportunity for reality to conform to expectation, as the Zingari Italiani (underperforming by 2 wins) seek to close their 3 1/2 game gap with the Tyler Roughnecks (outperforming by 4 wins).
Other differences are more subtle, or not significant in terms of the standings. The league-leading Doctrine appear to be outperforming, but would still be tied for first overall if their 6 excess wins were stripped away like so many steroid-tainted medals. The cellar-dwelling Helmet would be third-worst if justice prevailed. The worst news must be the verdict levelled at the Supernauts: their 33-50 season is, by Pythagorean rules, entirely deserved. Sometimes there's no place to hide.
Greater Western Trapper Alliance Division
|The Pete Munro Doctrine*||57||27||0||0.679||51||6|
|The Saint Patricians||34||49||1||0.411||38||-4|
|The Willie McGee Helmet||31||53||0||0.369||36||-5|
Northern Eskimo Union Division
|The Royal Rooters of Boston*||48||36||0||0.571||48||0|
|Nuke LaLoosh Fan CLub||35||48||1||0.423||42||-7|
|Spruce Avenue Supernauts||33||50||1||0.399||33||0|
*Indicates team has clinched playoff spot. Top three teams in each division qualify, with each division leader earning a bye in week-one.