Thursday, August 24, 2006

The Old Boys Club

How old is old? In baseball, that question gets harder to answer every year. Clearly, Julio Franco is old, having turned 48 yesterday. He remains the oldest player in baseball, and four years the senior of any other player. There are managers in baseball – including Ozzie Guillen, Eric Wedge, and John Gibbons – who are younger than Franco.

Fueled by a morning diet of a dozen egg whites, Franco is continuing on his quest to play to the age of 50. He may be alone on that journey, but there are still plenty of old guys to go around no matter how you slice it. Based on their 2006 birthdays, entering the season there were 120 players 35 and older, including 22 players who topped 40.

At the head of the class were the veteran pitchers, who made up fifteen of the 40+ cohort. On average, the six full-season starters in the group have cost $8.25 million and delivered 26 starts with 157 IP, 11-9 records and a K:BB ratio of 2.36:1. Collectively, they’ve delivered league-average ERAs (4.48 versus the MLB average of 4.53). Carrying all six would cost a team $49.5 million, of which $16 million is for Randy Johnson and $9 million for Greg Maddux (the average cost of the other four is a much more palatable $6.1 million).

Their durability is impressive: four have topped 160 innings pitched and are on-pace for 200+ (Glavine may fall short after missing a week or two to tend to his shoulder with, as mentioned earlier, a rigorous treatment program of baby aspirin).
40+ StartersIPGSW-LERAKBB
Moyer166267-124.398645
Johnson1642714-94.9813451
Maddux1622611-114.279627
Glavine1602612-63.9210353
Rogers1562613-64.148445
O Hernandez131249-95.2913047
Average Line1572611-94.4810645

The two oldest starters – 44-year-old Roger Clemens and 43-year-old David Wells – are not on the above list. Clemens was not eligible to sign with the Astros until the end of May, and re-joined the team on June 22nd, activating a $12.6 million salary payout for the remainder of the season.
40+ StartersIPGSW-LERAKBB
Clemens73125-42.586215
Wells4072-35.40207

Since returning from injury at the end of July, Wells has delivered five starts of generally improving quality and duration (his ERA over the past four starts is 2.67). But with only 40 innings pitched, he illustrates one of the two biggest risks of relying on the old boys club: injury. The Red Sox managed the risk sensibly, providing Wells with a base contract of $2.5 million, and bonuses based on time played ($200,000 per start for starts 11-20; $300,000 each for starts 21-30). The Johnson contract, which runs through 2007, includes no such safeguard.

Other pitchers have been felled by skill deterioration. Of the seven relievers on the list, four are now out of the league: Fassero was designated for assignment in May, Mulholland placed on waivers in June, Remlinger designated for assignment that same month and Hammond cleared waivers in July. That leaves Jose Mesa, Roberto Hernandez, Mike Timlin and Chris Hammond as senior members of the league’s bullpens. To be polite, their performance has been mixed: the four have averaged 44 innings pitched with an ERA of 4.06.

Is 40 old? By baseball standards, the answer is still “Yes,” although it seems the number of 40-year-old starting pitchers is growing. Slated to join the club next year are John Smoltz, Tim Wakefield, Curt Schilling, and Woody Williams.

There are no 38-year-old starters left in the majors, however, only one 37-year-old (the Yankees’ Mike Mussina), and one who’s 36 (Philadelphia’s Jon Lieber). Thirty-five year-olds Paul Byrd, Steve Trachsel and Miguel Batista seem unlikely candidates to pitch five more years.

That gap should remind us that the current crop of aging pitching stars is truly exceptional, and not the new norm.

Coming soon: The Old Boys Club II: Tracking Down the Batters.

7 Comments:

At 2:12 AM, Blogger Andy Grabia said...

You are embarrasing us all with your fine work, Avi.

 
At 6:35 AM, Blogger mudcrutch79 said...

Avi was reading Primer today, it looks like.

 
At 9:59 AM, Blogger Mini Me said...

Will there ever be anyone as old as Franco?

 
At 11:08 AM, Blogger Alex said...

Great work Avi. A few things I found interesting:

1. You're absolutely right that this is an exceptional group of pitchers. As we talked about over lunch on Monday, there are several hall of fame worthy players in this crop, and of the 40 plus crowd, or the group turning 40 next year, I'd put 5 of them in the Hall on the first ballot (Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Glavine, Schilling), and possibly even a 6th (Smoltz). Those are impressive numbers, especially given that all of these men played their peak years at the height of the juiced ball era.

2. The great Braves trio of the '90s (Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz). All three are obviously around since they're (at worst) borderline hall of famers, but Atlanta was long lauded for its off-season conditioning program for pitchers. I wonder how much that has to do with their durability.

3. Did any of the 40 year olds on this list get a late start on their major league career? If yes, I wonder if a lighter minor league load, or major league load in the early years has contributed to their longevity.

 
At 12:08 PM, Blogger Avi Schaumberg said...

Primer? I must be missing out on something good. Post a link!

This really came out of lunch on Monday -- a failed attempt to find a venue in Edmonton that was showing the BoSox game. Didn't happen, so talk moved on to hall of fame candidates and guys coming to the end of their careers.

I've been hoping that enough old guys would do well this season to make an old-guys post worthwhile. (Mainly I've been looking for an excuse to pump up the work of Bonds and Thomas, which will come in the batting post.)

 
At 2:21 PM, Blogger mudcrutch79 said...

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/newsblog/

They post stories throughout the day, followed by conversation and vicious fighting. Cosh has been known to hang out there now and again, as have I. There was a story the other day about Franco's diet, which is why I thought you were a Primate.

 
At 2:32 PM, Blogger Avi Schaumberg said...

Cool. The egg whites business was a late addition thanks to Andy (I mentioned the upcoming post and he pointed me to the column on Yahoo). I assume there's other good Franco-birthday themed coverage out there I missed as well (that was a late addition/bit of good timing too).

I keep meaning to check out the Think Factory, but have yet to make it a regular stop (it's hard enough making time to wade through the Prospectus posts, miscellany at the Hardball Times, and my fantasy team performances). Scratch that. It's not really hard to do that at all, it just takes time.

 

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