Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Turning On The Jets

A week ago, the quest for 20-70 appeared dead. Jose Reyes had 19 homeruns -- getting one more seemed likely -- but was stuck on 57 steals.

He'd entered September with 55 steals. Having achieved single months with double-digit steals seven times in his brief career, the 70 mark looked like a stretch, but still within reach.
Then Jose stopped running. From September 1st to 22nd he recorded just 2 stolen bases in 7 attempts. Moreover, he recorded just two doubles and one triple. His legs and his judgement were failing him.

All that changed this weekend when the Mets were at home to Washington. Although his team lost three of the four games Reyes was up to his old tricks, stealing five bases in five attempts and getting on base at a .600 clip. He became the first Met to steal 60 bases in consecutive seasons.

He continued his run tonight with a lead-off single and steal against John Smoltz. That brings Reyes up to 19 and 62, still a far cry from 20-70. With only 5 games left, and the Mets preparing for the playoffs, it seems improbable that Reyes will close the gap. But his late-season surge has given us reason to hope.
9/26/06On-pace
HR1920
SB6265

5 Comments:

At 8:30 AM, Blogger Andy Grabia said...

Some interesting things going on in the NL East. It isn't Nomar/Jeter/ARod, but these boys can play. Plus, they're both only 23.

Jose Reyes
AVG .301|HR 19|RBI 80|OBP .353| SLG .491|OPS .845|R 120|2B 30|3B 17|BB 50|SO 80|SB 62|CS 17|FPCT .973|RF 3.85|ZR .859


Hanley Ramirez
AVG .289|HR 15|RBI 57|OBP .351| SLG .469|OPS .820|R 115|2B 45|3B 10|BB 55|SO 123|SB 55|CS 14|FPCT .961|RF .456|ZR .789

I don't have Win Shares or VORP available. Avi?

 
At 11:10 AM, Blogger theDrizzler said...

Alfonso: 40-40-40

Reyes and Ramirez are pussies.

'Nuff said.

 
At 11:57 AM, Blogger Avi Schaumberg said...

Soriano's got the better part of a decade on Reyes/Ramirez -- he should be better. It's doing this at age 22/23 that's most impressive to me.

At age 23 Soriano appeared in a whopping 8 at-bats. It took him until he was 25 to become an everyday player. Is he having an exceptional season? Absolutely. In fact, he's having the best season of his career. If he really is 30-years-old you can pretty much be assured that it's all downhill from here.

As for other stats, here's how the three compare on VORP, WARP-1 and EqA.

VORP
Reyes: 57.2 (1st in NL among SS)
Ramirez: 50.6 (3rd)
Soriano: 51.4 (3rd among NL OF)

WARP-1
Reyes: 5.4
Ramirez: 5.9
Soriano: 8.4

EqA
Reyes: .286
Ramirez: .285
Soriano: .300

Definitions (which along with the stats are courtesy of BP):
WARP-1: Wins Above Replacement Player, level 1. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, with adjustments only for within the season (does not adjust for different season lengths or difficulty of position).

EqA: Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense.

VORP: Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

 
At 4:51 PM, Blogger Andy Grabia said...

Plus, Soriano is playing in left fucking field.

 
At 10:04 PM, Blogger theDrizzler said...

Oh yeah? Well I've got a +3 Battle Axe that'll warp your vorp.

 

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