Saturday, April 29, 2006

Quick Thoughts On The NFL Draft

A few quick thoughts on day one:

Mocking the Mock Drafts
I'm pretty certain that everyone's mock draft was way off this year. I don't remember a year where so many teams went off the board. This is either means that the depth in this year's draft was so strong that there were a lot of players deserving of 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round grades who got pushed down the charts because of the depth, or it means that most General Managers in the league don't know what they're doing. Hey! Speaking of...

Marv Levy Has Lost His Mind
Right around the time that the words Donte Whitner came out of Paul Tagliabue's mouth, Mike Shanahan must have thought "they refused to trade down so they could take this guy? You have to be f'n kidding me!" Word has it that the Bills refused to trade down because they couldn't receive fair value in return. Word has it that the Broncos and Vikings were the most aggressive pursuers; while there was a chance that Miami would have taken Whitner at 16, he would have likely been there had they traded with Denver (15) or Minnesota (17). So it appears that in upstate New York, value only matters as far as trades go, because they had no qualms about drafting a player that was universally seen as being in the 15-20 range at best.

Amazingly, this is only the second most mind-boggling move of the day. The Bills actually traded up into the first round (26th pick, from Chicago) to select defensive tackle John McCargo, who almost certainly would have been available when they picked in round two, if not later.

While they did well to pick Ashton Youboty in round three, they managed to start the day with four picks and end it without adding a single offensive tackle, which is their greatest area of need. In this respect, we could call Levy and Houston's Charlie Casserly birds of the same feather.

Don't Mess With Texans
I've commented on the Texans already, but I am still in shock over their passing on the two best offensive tackles in the draft. Again, Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are not bad players at all, in fact they'll probably be good pros. The problem is that offensive tackle - specifically left tackle, is their greatest area of need. They can have the best defense in the world, but if they can't keep David Carr off the turf, they're going to lose a lot of 17-3 games to Indianapolis and Jacksonville over the next few years. I also happen to think that they passed on a more talented player each time (though I do like DeMeco Ryans a lot), which makes it that much worse.

While it's worth noting that Winston Justice played right tackle in college, most scouts seemed confident that he could move to the left side and succeed. While Eric Winston played on the left side in college, a lot of people worry that he isn't mobile enough to stick there in the NFL.

The Anti-Texans
The New York Jets spent their two first rounders beefing up the o-line. They added left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson at #4, then center Nick Mangold at #29. Of course, unless second rounder Kellen Clemens was drafted with the intent of giving his right shoulder to Chad Pennington, then the Jets are still going to struggle this year. They're heading in the right direction, though.

Some Teams Really Do Take the Best Player Available
New England spent its first two picks on a running back and a wide receiver, which they also need, but spent their third rounder on a tight end. This is interesting, because they already have 2-3 productive tight ends on the roster.

In a similar vein, the St. Louis Rams spent two first day picks on tight ends, ostensibly to create a three horse race with incumbent Brandon Manamaleuna. These rookies better hope that the contest is decided on the field, and not by who has the coolest name.

The NFL's Three Least Favorite Letters? USC
With the exception of Taitusi "Deuce" Lutui, every highly touted Trojan went later on day one than was expected. Reggie Bush, once a lock to go first overall, was passed over and fell to the two-spot. Matt Leinart, who would have been first overall had he entered the draft last year, and was until recently seen as the second or third best player in the draft, fell all the way to #10. Winston Justice and LenDale White, once seen as possible top ten picks, tumbled all the way out of the first round. Tight End Dominique Byrd lasted until the late third, and defensive back Darnell Bing was not picked at all. Just a rough day for all of the prospects from SoCal, except for the aforementioned Lutui. He gets to continue blocking for Leinart in the pros.

San Francisco Disappoints Me Again
Vernon Davis. Ugh. This hurts all the more now with the knowledge in hindsight that they could have had Santonio Holmes with the 22nd overall pick. Drafting my boy Michael Huff, then either Holmes or DeAngelo Williams would have made my day. Instead, they go with Davis, who is not worth the 6th overall pick, and Manny Lawson, who I happen to like. My concern about him is how effective he will be when he doesn't have Mario Williams on his defense commanding the opposing side's attention.

The Niners ended the day by spending their third rounder on a wide receiver that I have never even heard of. His nfl.com profile tells me that his upside is as a third receiver/return man, which the Niners need. This would be a great pick if there weren't a dozen other third receivers/return men that could be picked in the later rounds. It would be better to spend their first day selections on players with a little more upside than that.

Look for full evaluations and grades in the next couple of days.

Alberta Baseball Confederacy, Open Thread Weekend Edition: Days 27 & 28


A peek at the scores as we head into the last two days of Week Four:
On Top 207 1/3
Rooters 162 2/3
NLFC 156
Doctrine 154
Italiani 153
Drizzle 152 2/3
Rougnecks 144
Patricians 134 2/3
Supernauts 130 2/3
Miners 128
Helmet 113 2/3
MRSR 94

Trivia: It being Saturday, all 30 teams start: only 7 will open the game with a pitcher whose ERA is under 4.00.

Barry Watch: Saturday's matchup is against RHP Juan Cruz, who moves from Arizona's bullpen to the starting position to replace 8-million-dollar-man Russ Ortiz. In 12 innings of work, Cruz has delivered a 3.00 ERA, 14 SO, and 10 BB.

Cruz last started a game in 2003, and is expected to be capped at 80 pitches. Bonds is 1-for-1 with a double against Cruz this season (pictured at left). Arizona's bullpen has a 4.27 ERA on the season, but half a point lower when Jason Grimsley is removed from the mix.

Sunday, which if tradition holds will be Barry's Day of Rest, the Diamondbacks plan to send staff ace Brandon Webb to the mound. Webb is already 3-0 with an ERA of 2.21 and a 4:1 SO:BB ratio over 36+ innings. Judging by past performance, Barry could combine rest and play: in 19 career plate appearances against Webb, Bonds is 1-for-6 with 13 BB.

Pre-Draft Thoughts

• The following teams should be seriously working the phones with the Saints right now - The J-E-T-S, Green Bay, San Francisco, and Oakland. I can't see New Orleans agreeing to drop down any further than that.

• If the Jets manage to move up and grab Reggie Bush, it may be the first time in the history of the draft that a New York draft pick isn't booed.

• If Tennessee takes Vince Young with the third pick, Matt Leinart could fall to the 8-10 range. If this happens, the Matt Leinart "I can't believe I passed on $30 million in guaranteed money last year" face could redefine comedy. Unless the Lions pick another Wide Receiver. THAT would redefine comedy as we know it.

• I'm praying that Green Bay takes Vernon Davis with the fifth pick.

• Vince Young's grey pinstripe suit is the clear winner in the green room.

• Who the hell invited Michael Irvin to be a part of the ESPN telecast?

Friday, April 28, 2006

The Houston Texans Select...

Mario Williams



In a move that few people anticipated, the Texans have signed a contract with Mario Williams, and will select him first overall in tomorrow's NFL entry draft. Perhaps we should have all listened when GM Charlie Casserly said that they were earnestly negotiating with both Bush and Williams.

A few quick comments:

• Either the Texans didn't see much difference between Bush and Williams, or they didn't want to risk a prolonged holdout with Reggie. Those are the only reasons I can think of as to why they're picking Williams, and not trading down.

• On the other hand, it's possible that no one offered them an attractive enough package to trade down. There didn't seem to be a lot of activity around this pick.

• The Saints should be smiling from ear to ear right now. The value of their pick just went through the roof.

And in case you're curious, my advice to the Saints is "Deuce who"? Pick Reggie, and let things work themselves out. Remember that New Orleans had Ricky Williams on their roster when they drafted the Deuce a few years back.

I really hope Reggie is a Saint at about 12:30PM EST tomorrow. If there was ever a city that needed some good news, getting Reggie to go along with New Orleans Hornets star Chris Paul would be a great way to lift the city's spirits.

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE
Unsurprisingly, feedback on this move is overwhelmingly negative. Even the great Chuck Klosterman has seen fit to weigh in with his critique.

The more I think about it, the more I think that this was a terrible move. The Texans should have at least tried to trade down to the 2 or 4 spot, which would have guaranteed them a shot at either Williams or D'Brickashaw Ferguson (who for my money, would have been a better pick than Mario). I understand the need to get a pass-rusher - hence Charlie Casserly's 'football decision' rationale, but I just don't see how you pass on the best player available. I mean, it's not like Domanick Davis is an elite Running Back or anything. I have a tough time believing that any team not named the Redskins, Seahawks, Cardinals, Chargers, or Chiefs would not view Bush as a potential upgrade. The Texans also have 4 first day picks, so they will have the means to move up and grab a pass-rusher such as Manny Lawson in the late teens/early twenties, if that's what they so desire.

I guess it comes down to this. The Texans may be enamored with Mario Williams, and feel that he will be as good or better of a pro and/or will fill a greater need, but they didn't get the value for the first overall pick that they should have. They could have traded down, or down then back up (with New Orleans) to get Mario, picking up additional picks in the process, but they didn't.

As expected, Texans fans are not happy over this move. Of course, the players are saying all the right things, though most of them are probably privately thinking "what was I thinking when I signed here?"

More draft coverage to come this weekend.

The NFL Mock Draft 2006

The next two days will see the names of 255 talented young football players called. Whether they’re blue-chippers tapped at the top of the first round, or projects taken on a wing and a prayer at the bottom of the seventh, all of them hold the promise of a bright NFL future. Of course, most of them won’t make it there, and some of them won’t even step on the field.

With that in mind, here’s my day one mock draft. Three rounds, with analysis for the first round and a bit.

This is influenced more by who I think each team should take, rather than who I think they will take. This also isn’t so much my take on who the best players are (though that factors in a bit), but I tried to stay close to the value board, and project picks based on a team’s philosophy, style of play, and need.

So sit back and enjoy, because the Houston Texans are on the clock!

Pre-Draft Trade
Green Bay: WR Ashley Lelie, 37th Pick, Conditional 2007 Draft Pick
Denver: WR Javon Walker, TE Bubba Franks, 67th Pick

1st Round

1 – Houston Texans. Reggie Bush, RB, USC.
He projects to be a franchise player in the NFL. He has great speed, and will only get better as a rusher as he adds some bulk to his frame. In the meantime, he can contribute as a part-time back, receiver, and return man – just like he has at USC for the past three years. Concerns about his durability are unfounded, as he is really no smaller than many other backs that have had successful careers. While it’s tough to pass on a prospect like Mario Williams or D’Brickashaw Ferguson, both of whom fill big areas of need for the Texans, a trio of Bush, David Carr, and Andre Johnson could have the Texans contending for a championship in the latter half of this decade.

2 – New Orleans Saints. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia
The Saints should trade down to 4 or 5, but I don’t see a reason why either the Jets or Packers should agree to swap spots with them. I think they should stay away from quarterbacks here, not just because of the Drew Brees signing, so this comes down to Williams or Ferguson. A bold pick would be AJ Hawk, but the Saints can address the linebacker position in the second round. I give the nod to Ferguson here. Both him and Williams are great prospects, but D’Brick gets the nod not based on team need, but because he’s been a premier performer in college for longer, and from all accounts, his football IQ is off the charts. That this pick happens to fill a need as well is just icing on the cake.

3 – Tennessee Titans. Matt Leinart, QB, USC
The Titans need a Quarterback ,with Steve McNair on the way out, and 30-year old Billy Volek being nothing more than a solid backup. Fortunately for them, a former Heisman Trophy winner and national champion is available. In my draft primer yesterday, I called Leinart the safest pick out of the three quarterbacks who will go in the first round. That’s part of the reason I give him the nod here; another is his familiarity with Norm Chow’s offense. While there are concerns about his arm strength, I think it’s more than adequate for the NFL. He also possesses good accuracy, and underrated mobility – which is different from speed, and more important in my opinion for a quarterback to have. Leinart should start from day one in Music City.

4 – New York Jets. Mario Williams, DE, North Carolina State
The temptation will be there for the Jets to trade down from this spot, and while there’s some merit to the idea, especially if they stay in the top 8, I think that they’ll be best served by standing pat and grabbing Williams. AJ Hawk should be a consideration here too, but Williams could be a Richard Seymour-type player in Eric Mangini’s 3-4 defense. It’s also possible that he’ll have enough mobility to play standing up on passing downs, which would be unheard of for a 300 pounder. There are some questions about his consistency, but he has too much potential to pass up here. He’ll be a player in whatever defensive system he works in.

5 – Green Bay Packers. Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
I’m not sold on Davis, but he has unheard of speed for a tight end, and fills a need for the Packers. Even if they don’t trade Bubba Franks, he’s coming off a concussion, and it remains to be seen how effective he will be. The Packers appear to be in denial about their general crappiness, and are trying their best to gear up for one more run in Brett Favre’s final year. If they’re going to do that, they might as well give him another toy to work with on offense. Come 2007, Davis will be around to help ease Aaron Rodgers’ transition into the starting lineup.

Trade
Oakland: 6th, 100th, 175th picks
San Francisco: 7th, 69th picks

6 - Oakland Raiders. Vince Young, QB, Texas
The Raiders overpay a bit according to the value chart, but it’s worth it to acquire Vince Young. While the Raiders like QB Andrew Walter, who they drafted last year, Young projects to be a much better pro. Also, Walter could play a Matt Schaub-like role for the Raiders if Young's style of play gets him into injury trouble - which it very well could.

As for VY, he has great size, and despite an unorthodox release, has a strong arm, and knows how to find the receiver. I’m not sure how effective he’ll be as a runner, but he think he can make it as a passer. He will need 1-2 years on the bench to be groomed though.

If you’re wondering why the Raiders traded up one spot, it was to ensure that a team like Arizona didn’t get ahead of them.

7 – San Francisco 49ers. AJ Hawk, LB, Ohio State
This is the toughest pick for me, as both Hawk and Huff will be franchise players, in my opinion. What this pick comes down to for me is that the 3-4 defense that the Niners run depends on strong linebacker play. So if that’s the direction that they’re going in, then Hawk should be the selection. He can play either inside or outside, and has proven himself to be a warrior on the field during his tenure at Ohio State.

I may regret this pick if AJ’s fiancée, Laura Quinn (Brady’s sister), ever shows up wearing a hybrid Niners/whatever team Brady ends up playing for jersey, like she did for the Buckeyes-Irish Fiesta Bowl game this year.

8 – Buffalo Bills. Michael Huff, DB, Texas
You didn’t think I would leave my boy Michael Huff on the board any longer, did you? Most people predict that the Bills will go with either an offensive or defensive tackle here; while those are both positions of need, it’s too early to pick Winston Justice or Broderick Bunkley, and Haloti Ngata is a poor fit for their system. Aside from that, they have a second rounder and two third rounders which they can use to address needs. Nate Clements is established at one corner spot, and Terrence McGee is in at the second, but Huff can contribute as a nickel back or safety. Good teams draft the best player, and he’s clearly the best left on the board.

9 – Detroit Lions. Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State
Just kidding. If you’re reading this Matt Millen, don’t get any ideas.

Here’s the actual pick:

9 – Detroit Lions. Ernie Sims, LB, Florida State
There are some concerns about concussions that he has suffered, but he’s a phenomenal talent with great speed. That, and some character questions, might cause him to slide, but most people would agree that on talent alone he’s worthy of the 9th pick. Head Coach Rod Marinelli will employ the Cover 2 defense, and will need fast linebackers like Sims to succeed. He’s the perfect fit for Detroit at this point in the draft.

10 – Arizona Cardinals. Winston Justice, OT, USC
They’ll be tempted to take Jay Cutler, but Justice could solidify one of the tackle positions for the Cards, which they need to happen if they’re talented offense is ever going to take off. The Cards could look to trade down too to grab a DB or linebacker Chad Greenway, but Justice is a good talent, and he will not last past the 13th or 14th pick if they don’t grab him here.

Trade
Philadelphia: 11th, 144th picks
St. Louis: 14th, 108th, 116th, 127th picks

11 – Philadelphia Eagles. Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
They just miss out on Justice, but Ngata is a monster defensive tackle who will address an area of need. I’m not sold that he’ll be an all-pro, but if any coach can coax the most out of him, it’s probably Andy Reid. The trade sees the Eagles trade 3 4th rounders for an extra 5th rounder, which will help with the depth of the Rams draft. The Eagles need to move up because the odds of Ngata falling past the next two picks are slim. Also, in keeping their other two first day picks, they are in position to address needs at other positions, such as OT and LB.

12 – Cleveland Browns. Kamerion Wimbley, DE/LB, Florida State
They just miss out on Ngata, who would be the perfect nose tackle in the 3-4 defense. However, Wimbley is hardly a consolation prize. At 270 pounds, he has the ideal size to play outside linebacker in the 3-4. He can contribute right away opposite of veteran Willie McGinest, and provides the Browns with a desperately needed young building block on defense.

Trade
Minnesota: 13th, 181st picks
Baltimore: 17th, 83rd picks

Baltimore gets the additional first day pick they’re looking for, while Minnesota gets to pick…

13 – Minnesota Vikings. Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt.
The Vikings think that Cutler is the ideal quarterback for their system, so there’s no reason why they shouldn’t go after him. Even if I think he will be a disappointment. With five first day picks, they can afford to sacrifice one to move up four spots; it’s very possible that St. Louis or Denver would have picked him right away as well.

14 – St. Louis Rams. Chad Jackson, WR, Florida
Everyone’s assuming that they will go defense here, and they do have needs at defensive tackle and cornerback. Scott Linehan’s offense likes to throw the ball deep, and Jackson is the best deep threat in the draft. The Rams have a good set of receivers already, but Isaac Bruce is near the end of his career, and while Kevin Curtis may end up being a good starter, he doesn’t stretch the field the way that Jackson will.

Trade
Dallas; 15th pick
Denver: 18th, 80th picks

15 – Dallas Cowboys. Donte Whitner, S, Ohio State
Whitner has shot up the draft boards, and can project as either a corner of a safety in the pros. I see him stepping straight into the lineup at free safety, which is a huge position of need for the Cowboys. They know that both Miami and Baltimore are looking at Safeties, so they need to move up to get the one they want. Denver has a handful of players it could pick, and with the acquisition of Javon Walker, aren’t as pressed to add a receiver.

16 – Miami Dolphins. Manny Lawson, DE/LB, North Carolina State
While the Dolphins will look hard at receiver (Santonio Holmes) and defensive back (Jason Allen), they should settle on Lawson, who is the perfect hybrid end/backer to play in Nick Saban’s system. Santonio Holmes may have more upside, but they can address that position on the second day. Lawson is talented enough to warrant the 16th overall selection, and will step in and make a difference from day one.

17 – Baltimore Ravens. Antonio Cromartie, CB, Florida State
He missed the entire 2005 season due to injury, but shot up the draft boards over the past three months due to his size (6-2) and standout performance at the combine. The Ravens think he can play safety, where he’ll step in to start the 2006 season, but he has enough talent to play corner as well, and will be a difference-maker on the field.

18 – Denver Broncos. Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State
If he was taller than 6 feet, he’d be a lock for the top 10. As it stands, though, he’s a steal for the Broncos here. He has great speed, hands, and runs great routes as well. If the Broncos can bring him in, he should contribute as the third receiver from day one, and could very well replace Rod Smith in the near future.

19 – San Diego Chargers. Johnathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina.
We’re into the run on cornerbacks, and it’s a toss-up here between him and Tye Hill of Clemson. Joseph has better size and athleticism, so he gets the nod.

20 – Kansas City Chiefs. Tye Hill, CB, Clemson
They can’t make this pick fast enough. Hill is possibly the best cover corner in this draft, the only thing he’s lacking is ideal size. Still, at number 20, he’s a great pick that will help the Chiefs out right away.

Trade
NY Giants: 21st, 118th picks
New England: 25th, 87th picks

21 – New York Giants. Broderick Bunkley, DT, Florida State
He has the talent to go much higher, but slides for a number of reasons. The Giants move up and grab him to anchor the interior of the line; they’re in the market for a young talent after the departure of Kendrick Clancy. Bunkley will look good in the 4-3, and should make a lot of plays with star ends Michael Strahan and Osi Umeniyori demanding attention from blockers.

22 – San Francisco 49ers. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
He’s the best player available at this point. While it might be tempting to add a defensive back, or a linebacker like Bobby Carpenter of Ohio State (who would be a great pick here), Williams has the talent to be a franchise back for the next decade, which Kevan Barlow and Frank Gore do not. Head Coach Mike Nolan is familiar with Williams, having coached him in the Senior Bowl this year, and understands how a strong running game is necessary for keeping your defense off the field, and helping ease the burden on his young quarterback. And yes, I love DeAngelo, and think he will be a star. That’s why I’m projecting this pick. But I would be happy with Bobby Carpenter as well.

Trade
Chicago: 23rd, 235th picks
Tampa Bay: 26th, 120th, 200th picks

23 – Chicago Bears. Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa
The Bears have an immediate need at Free Safety, but Greenway is far too good of a talent to pass up. He probably deserves to go about 7-10 spots higher than this, He may not be the ideal fit for the 3-4 due to his difficulties in taking on blockers, which is why I don’t have him going to a team like Dallas, San Diego, or San Francisco. While he doesn’t have the speed that most linebackers who play in the Cover 2 do, he knows how to get to the ball, and has the instincts to make up for any physical limitations.

24 – Cincinnati Bengals. Jimmy Williams, DB, Virginia Tech
He’s a big-time talent who has scared some teams off because of concerns about his attitude. Nonetheless, he has far too much talent to last much longer on the board, and Marvin Lewis should roll the dice and hope that he can keep Williams focused on the field. He can also play either corner or safety, which adds to his value.

25 – New England Patriots. Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio State
Carpenter, who is a great value pick in the mid 20s, also addresses a huge need for the Patriots. Their linebacking corps was thin and aging at the end of last year; with the departure of Willie McGinest, it has only gotten thinner. While Carpenter was overshadowed in college by teammate AJ Hawk, he is a playmaker in his own right. He has the ideal size for a 3-4 linebacker, and can step right into Willie’s old starting spot on the outside.

26 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jason Allen, DB, Tennessee
Like Antonio Cromartie, Allen slid down the board because of the time he missed as a senior, but rehabilitated his stock with great performances in the pre-draft workout. Allen is yet another tweener defensive back prospect, which makes him all the more valuable. The Bucs have more pressing needs on the offensive line, but Allen is the best player available for them right now.

Trade
Pittsburgh: 27th, 155th picks
Carolina: 32nd, 96th, 201st picks

27 – Pittsburgh Steelers. LenDale White, RB, USC
White has seen his stock drop due to off-season injuries which have prevented him from participating in the workouts. Nonetheless, anyone who saw him at USC knows how good he can be. White has great size for a back, and can carry the ball 25 times a game in the NFL. He’s too good to pass up here, especially for a team like the Steelers, who like to have big running backs.

28 – Jacksonville Jaguars. Thomas Howard, LB, UTEP
The Jags love athletic players, and they won’t find many better athletes on the board than this linebacker. Howard has good size to play in the 4-3, and posted a 4.42 40 in the combine. He may need to be eased into the starting lineup, but his potential could turn out to be worth the investment.

29 – New York Jets. Richard Marshall, CB, Fresno State
Marshall may not make a ton of big plays, but he’s strong in coverage, and will help speed up the rebuilding process on defense.

30 – Indianapolis Colts. Joseph Addai, RB, LSU
I doubt that they’d pass on Laurence Maroney if he were available, but Addai is the better receiver out of the backfield, and is a far better fit for the Colts offense than Mauroney is. He may not be of the same caliber of Edgerrin James, but he will be a more than adequate replacement.

31 – Seattle Seahawks. Ashton Youboty, CB, Ohio State
Youboty is a physical corner, and he can step right in and contribute as the nickel back for Seattle. They would like to add a pass rusher, but the only defensive end who deserves consideration here is Tamba Hali, who’s not a pass-rushing specialist.

32 – Carolina Panthers. Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota
They would love to add a linebacker, but Maroney offers more value than any of the remaining backers of the board. With injury-prone DeShaun Foster being the only proven running back on the Panthers’ roster, Mauroney fills another area of need for the team as well.

2nd Round

33 – Houston Texans. Eric Winston, OT, Miami-FL
Fills a need at OT, and this is right about where he should come off the board.

34 – New Orleans Saints. DeMeco Ryans, LB, Alabama
He may not have ideal size or speed, but he knows how to make plays, and will be a steal for the Saints in this spot.

35 – New York Jets. Nick Mangold, C, Ohio State
A great value at this pick. He could be the anchor on the o-line for the next decade, and immediately strengthens the unit by stepping in as center, and allowing Trey Teague to move to tackle.

36 – Green Bay Packers. Sinorice Moss, WR, Miami-FL
He’s a game-breaker who can contribute as a receiver and return man, and take the spot of now-departed Antonio Chatman.

37 – Green Bay Packers. Davin Joseph, OG, Oklahoma
Big need position for the Pack, and he also should come off the board around now.

38 – Oakland Raiders. Tamba Hali, DE, Penn State
He’s an absolute steal here. I think he deserves to go at least 10 spots higher, but just couldn’t find a good fit on the board until now.

39 – Tennessee Titans. Marcus McNeill, OT, Auburn

40 – Detroit Lions. D’Qwell Jackson, LB, Maryland
Him and Sims will be the core of the new Lions defense.

41 – Arizona Cardinals. Charlie Whitehurst, QB, Clemson

42 – Buffalo Bills. John McCargo, DT, North Carolina State
May be a bit early, but he’s a big-time talent.

Trade
Carolina: 43rd pick
Cleveland: 58th, 88th picks

43 – Carolina Panthers. Marcedes Lewis, TE, UCLA
Absolute steal at this point.

44 – Baltimore Ravens. Gabe Watson, DT, Michigan
He has the ideal size to keep blockers off of Ray Lewis.

45 – Philadelphia Eagles. Roger McIntosh, LB, Miami-FL

46 – St. Louis Rams. Leonard Pope, TE, Georgia

47 – Atlanta Falcons. Max Jean-Gilles, OG, Georgia

48 – Minnesota Vikings. Abdul Hodge, LB, Iowa

49 – Dallas Cowboys – Andrew Whitworth, OT, LSU

50 – San Diego Chargers – Greg Jennings, WR, Western Michigan

51 – Minnesota Vikings. Taitusi “Deuce” Lutui, OG, USC

52 – New England Patriots. Danieal Manning, DB, Abilene Christian

Trade
Houston: 53rd picks
Washington: 65th, 98th picks

53 – Houston Texans. Ko Simpson, S, South Carolina

54 – Kansas City Chiefs. Darryl Tapp, DE, Virginia Tech

55 – Cincinnati Bengals. Mathias Kiwanuka, DE, Boston College

56 – New York Giants. Brian Calhoun, RB, Wisconsin

57 – Chicago Bears. Daniel Bullocks, S, Nebraska

58 – Cleveland Browns. Cedric Griffin, CB, Texas

59 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Chris Chester, OL, Oklahoma

60 – Jacksonville Jaguars. Dominique Byrd, TE, USC

61 – Denver Broncos. Brodie Croyle, QB, Alabama

62 – Indianapolis Colts. Jon Alston, LB, Stanford

63 – Seattle Seahawks. Demetrius Williams, WR, Oregon

64 – Pittsburgh Steelers. Devin Hester, CB/WR, Miami-FL

3rd Round

65 – Washington Redskins. Alan Zemaitis, CB, Penn State

66 – Houston Texans. Darnell Bing, S, USC

67 – Denver Broncos. Mark Anderson, DE, Alabama

68 – Denver Broncos. Claude Wroten, DT, LSU

69 – San Francisco 49ers. Joe Klopfenstein, TE, Colorado
Best player on the board.

70 – Buffalo Bills. Daryn Colledge, OT, Boise State

71 – New York Jets. Kellen Clemens, QB, Oregon

72 – Arizona Cardinals. Dee Webb, CB, Florida

73 – Buffalo Bills. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, UCLA

74 – Detroit Lions. Charles Spencer, OG, Pittsburgh

75 – New England Patriots. Maurice Stovall, WR, Notre Dame

76 – Philadelphia Eagles. David Thomas, TE, Texas

77 – St. Louis Rams. David Pittman, CB, Northwestern State

78 – Cleveland Browns. Montavious Stanley, DT, Louisville

79 – Atlanta Falcons. Ray Edwards, DE, Purdue

80 – Denver Broncos. Greg Eslinger, OC, Minnesota

81 – San Diego Chargers. Jonathan Scott, OT, Texas

82 – Miami Dolphins. Pat Watkins, S, Florida State

83 – Baltimore Ravens. Dusty Dvoracek, DT, Oklahoma

84 – San Francisco 49ers. Rodrique Wright, DT, Texas

85 – Kansas City Chiefs. Travis Wilson, WR, Oklahoma

86 – New England Patriots. Kai Parham, LB, Virginia

87 – New England Patriots. Bernard Pollard, S, Purdue

88 – Cleveland Browns. Derek Hagan, WR, Arizona State

89 – Carolina Panthers. James Anderson, LB, Virginia Tech

90 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Orien Harris, DT, Miami-FL

91 – Cincinnati Bengals. Omar Jacobs, QB, Bowling Green

92 – Jacksonville Jaguars. Jerious Norwood, RB, Mississippi State

93 – Atlanta Falcons. DeMario Minter, CB, Georgia

94 – Indianapolis Colts. Kyle Williams, DT, LSU

95 – Minnesota Vikings. Spencer Havner, LB, UCLA

96 – Carolina Panthers. Roman Harper, S, Alabama

97 – New York Jets. Parys Haralson, DE/LB, Tennessee

End of the first day trade
Minnesota: RB Kevan Barlow, 213th pick
San Francisco: 115th pick

That takes care of day one. For everyone interested in how the real thing shakes down, come back here for more analysis later in the weekend...after you've gotten your Mel Kiper fix for the year. Enjoy!

Bonds Set To Boom, Then Collapse

It’s six weeks to the World Cup, therefore bond sales are going up.

An absurd example of false cause from a freshman logic class? Apparently not.

Bloomberg reporter Sebastian Boyd had the fun task of writing-up the true story of this unusual relationship. The Globe has picked it up, and others are sure to follow in the fun.

Apparently European investment bankers are so besotted with football that business grinds to a halt during the quadrennial tournament.

Based on data from French bank BNP Paribas, Boyd reports that “Industrial companies increased bond sales by 48 percent in May 2002, just before the last World Cup started, and new offerings fell by half in June while the matches were being played.”

Bond underwriter Pierre Lebel backed up the 2002 numbers with a recollection of the ’98 tournament, held in France: “The market virtually came to a halt.”

Lebel is advising client companies that need money to raise it now, noting that the post-Cup market is also expected to crater because of July vacations.

There was no word on whether an early exit by France or Germany would help get the markets back on their feet faster.

The Korea-Japan tournament, with its North American schedule of overnight and early morning matches, was a tough grind. But between the magic of videotape, and rising early for a few special matches, I managed to enjoy the tournament and stay working.

Slacking off for a month while staying at the office? Let’s just call it a European vacation. You know, on top of the eleven weeks they spend decamped at a pebbled beach.

Thursday, April 27, 2006

I Hate The CBC, Redux


Less than one minute into the Oilers-Wings game, and the CBC has already ruined things. For some reason, the video is squished, making all the players look like Plastic Man.

Mel Kiper Is On The Clock


It's that time of year again. Yes folks, the NFL Draft is this weekend. As this is one of my favorite sporting events of the year, it was inevitable that I'd weigh in with some coverage. This may be the only post I make before the culmination of our pre-draft coverage - an in-depth, 3 round Mock Draft. Not what I think will happen, because that's no fun, but how I would draft if I were all of the 32 teams. It may match up closely with how the former would pan out as well, but look for some twists, and lots of trades as well. So in conclusion, this will be by far the nerdiest venture I have undertaken to date for this website.

Before we get to the Mock Draft, here's a primer on some of the stories to watch for this weekend.

It's Mel Kiper Time!
Everyone's favorite draft pundit is back, and will be shrieking and hollering at you through your TV all weekend. My favorite thing about Kiper is how every year he latches on to one prospect who he feels deserves to be a top pick, and criticizes every team that passes on him. This player is normally a Top 10 prospect, but Mel feels that they deserve to go higher. Mike Williams was last year's pet, while my all-time favorite is Trent Dilfer. I still remember Mel screaming about how the Colts would regret not picking him after they took a pass with both of their selections in the Top 5. For the record, the Colts drafted a Hall of Fame Running Back (Marshall Faulk), and a mildly entertaining studio analyst (Trev Alberts). Kiper especially ripped the Alberts selection. Every year, I hope that they'll invite Trev to be part of the draft show and run that clip.

Anyway, I've decided to pull a Mel Kiper and pick a guy to tout for the draft this year. My pick: Michael Huff of Texas. Sure he projects to go in the Top 8, 9th at worst, but even in a deep draft year, how a man who plays Corner, both Safety spots, and has drawn comparisons to Ronnie Lott does not go in the Top 5 is beyond me.

One of These Things Will Not Be Like the Other
Everyone's touting the Quarterbacks at the top of the board - 2004 Heisman Winner Matt Leinart of USC, Rose Bowl hero Vince Young of Texas, and fast-rising Jay Cutler of Vanderbilt. Three different franchises will call these players' names, with the hopes that they will be a building block for the next 10-15 years. Undoubtedly, at least one of them will be disappointed.

Of the 13 Quarterbacks drafted in the top half of the 1st Round between 1993-2000, 4 are definite starters this fall (Bledsoe, Manning, McNabb, Culpepper), one is looking for work (Collins), one is filing a grievance against his team (McNair), and one is a transitional starter at best (Dilfer). Of the 6 who are no longer in the league, only one managed to carve out a long-term career as a backup (Rick Mirer), while the rest of them flamed out within a few years. It's interesting to note that one is now coaching Division II Football, and another one is running for Congress. Out of the 13, only 7 of them ever established themselves as starters.

So while Leinart, Young, and Cutler now hold all the promise in the world, it's a safe guess that at least one of them will never make it as a starter, and will probably be out of the league in 5-7 years. (If it happens to be Leinart who flames out, we can totally see him as a reporter for the E! Network).

If I had to guess, I would say that Leinart is the safest bet (at worst, he'll be a Trent Dilfer-esque game manager), Young has the highest upside (if he can develop as a passer and stay away from injuries), but also the biggest bust potential (if he's not properly coached), while Cutler is this year's Quarterback who's strong performance in practice drills and the combine leads people to believe that he is a good in-game Quarterback. Normally these guys are tutored by Jeff Tedford, but Cutler is not, which makes him an exception to the trend of recent years. Still, whoever drafts him will probably be looking for their next Quarterback of the Future in 3-4 years.

Of course, I'm still surprised that Jake Plummer didn't become the next Joe Montana, so it's entirely possible that I know very little about projecting Quarterbacks at the NFL level.

And for the record, I maintain that if the 49ers had drafted Plummer in the 1997 Draft like I wanted them to, he would have become an All-Pro Quarterback.

Who's Number 1?
There's no drama here, as Reggie Bush is the consensus pick. Well, it's almost a consensus. Skip Bayless thinks that Vince Young should go first, while Michael Smith of ESPN makes a more compelling case for Mario Williams.

Rumor has it that a number of teams have Williams at the top of their board, but I have a tough time believing it. I think this is a case of teams blowing smoke around draft time, which happens all too frequently. Williams will probably be a great player, despite the concerns about his consistency, but Bush projects to be a Marshall Faulk-type player, with even more speed and explosiveness. Anyone who remembers Faulk's heyday with the Rams knows how difficult that is to pass on. As for Young, I'm not nearly as concerned about his mechanics or passing ability as I am about the fact that he seems to be more of a straight-ahead runner, as opposed to an elusive runner (like Michael Vick is). Young could run over college defenders, but I don't know if he can run over NFL defenders. Even if he can, I have a hard time believing that he can stay healthy for 16 games a year while doing so.

If the Texans are going to look at anyone other than Bush, it should be Offensive Tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson of Virginia. Franchise Left Tackles are hard to come by, and Ferguson projects to be someone who can keep David Carr off the turf for the next 10-15 years.

Who's Trading Up?
Possibilities include:

• The Raiders, if you believe that they are really enamored with Vince Young.
• The Rams or Vikings, to pick Jay Cutler.
• The Buccaneers, to get ahead of Philly and pick Offensive Tackle Winston Justice from USC.
• Anyone looking to get ahead of Denver and Miami (who pick 15th-16th) to pick one of the two Wide Receivers with first round grades - Santonio Holmes of Ohio State and Chad Jackson of Florida. I've heard that the Bucs like Jackson, but none of the teams picking in the late teens or early twenties (Chargers, Chiefs, Patriots) have tipped their hand about moving up.

Who's Trading Down?
• The Ravens, who want to pick up an extra Day One draft choice to replace their third rounder that went to New England.
• The 49ers, if Vernon Davis is gone (and I hope he is).
• The Vikings, if they're set on a Linebacker in the first round, and Chad Greenway and Ernie Sims are off the board.
• The Bears, if they can't add a Linebacker at 26.

The Freak: 2006 Edition
Every year, there are workout warriors who move up the board based on their freakish size/speed/strength that is on display at the combine. This year's winner: Vernon Davis of Maryland.

Davis, a Tight End, is definitely a talented player, and was a promising prospect before the combine. However, after running a 4.38 40 yard dash, he jumped from being a possible Top 10, but most likely Top 15 pick, to a definite Top 10, who could go as high as 4th, but will probably go 6th or 7th, and could reinvent the Tight End position. A little too much hype? I think so.

The Ballplayers
Three players I highlighted in my review of the Senior Bowl were Memphis RB DeAngelo Williams, Miami WR Sinorice Moss, and Penn State DE Tamba Hali. Williams could go as high as 15th to Denver, but is more likely to drop into the 20s, since most of the teams picking in the teens (Arizona, Baltimore, Minnesota) picked up Running Backs in free agency. Moss is still seen as a late first/early second rounder, while Hali - due to perceived physical limitations, has dropped into the first tier of the second round.

Of course, if he could have added another rep or two to his bench press, and shaved one-tenth of a second off of his 40 yard dash, Hali would probably be a lock for the Top 20. Such is life at the draft.

Front Office Wars
Word on the street is that the Front Offices and Coaching Staffs of the Titans and Bills are mired in conflict over which direction to go in with their respective Top 10 picks.

It looks like a given that the Titans will take a Quarterback with the third overall pick, but rumor has it that there is a rift between the Owner and General Manager, who prefer Vince Young, and the Coaching staff, who prefer Matt Leinart. The fact that Leinart's Offensive Coordinator with the Trojans (Norm Chow) is now with the Titans would seem to make him a natural fit. Also, it's entirely possible that the Titans are blowing smoke about their interest in Vince Young, given that he is at least a year or two away from starting, and they seem intent on pushing current starter Steve McNair out the door. Furthermore, given that McNair and Young have trained together, and have a close relationship, it would seem counterintuitive to push VY's mentor out the door if they intended to bring him in.

As for the Bills, octogenarian General Manager Marv Levy is seemingly against the Coaching Staff's two preferred courses of action. If the team stands pat with the 8th pick, it will probably pick a Defensive Tackle. The two top rated players at that position - Haloti Ngata of Oregon, and Broderick Bunkley of Florida State, figure to be available. The Coaches prefer Bunkley, as his speed and athleticism makes him a natural fit for their two-gap defense; of course, Levy is thought to prefer Ngata. The other preferred course of the Coaches is to trade up to have a shot at Ferguson or AJ Hawk; Levy is said to be open to trading down, but not up.

Of course, this could be a lot of hot air coming from the Bills; I would actually not be surprised to see them go in an entirely different direction (Michael Huff, for example). They have a second rounder and two third rounders with which they can address their needs on the Offensive and Defensive Lines.

We Are The 49ers
I would be remiss in not commenting on the moves that my 49ers have made recently. In a swap of recent first round disappointment, they traded Wide Receiver Rashaun Woods to San Diego in exchange for Cornerback Sammy "Yes I Can" Davis. They followed that up by acquiring an additional first round pick from Denver in exchange for their second and third round picks.

It's always discouraging to see your team give up on a first rounder after only two seasons - especially when that player has barely had the opportunity to step onto the field due to injuries. I would feel better about the acquisition of Davis were the 49ers Depth Chart not already jammed with guys who project to be decent Nickel Backs in the NFL. With Mike Rumph moving back to Corner from Free Safety, the Niners now have 4 players who would make passable second string or decent third string Corners (Shawntae Spencer and Walt Harris being the others); we need top-end talent in the worst way.

Which is why I like the move up into the first round. The 49ers have had a surplus of picks in the last few drafts, and have added a lot of bodies at some positions (Corner and the Interior Offensive Line jump to mind). They lack playmakers at most every position though, and the odds of finding an impact player at 22, instead of 37 and/or 68, are that much greater.

With 4 picks in the Top 100, then an additional 6 picks in the last 3 rounds, the Niners should be able to add a couple of players who can contribute right away, then a few projects on the second day. While it will be tempting to address needs (especially Outside Linebacker), an analysis of the Niners roster shows that they are missing talent everywhere. I don't think that drafting for need is bad if you're a contender, or have a young nucleus in place, but the Niners currently have neither. The only spot where they absolutely need to add someone is Outside Linebacker, where - with all due respect to Corey Smith - they have no one on the roster who can step in for Andre Carter and Julian Peterson.

Using The Value Board developed by Scott Wright, here's an example of how the Niners draft could shake down, assuming they stand pat on every pick.

If tomorrow's mock draft happens to shake down similar to this, feel free to call me a homer.

6 - Michael Huff, DB, Texas
22 - Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio State
84 - Spencer Havner, LB, UCLA
100 - Devin Aromashodu, WR, Auburn
140 - Paul McQuistan, OT, Weber State
175 - Julian Jenkins, DE, Stanford
192 - Owen Daniels, TE, Wisconsin
213 - Cedric Humes, RB, Virginia Tech
236 - Kedric Golston, DT, Georgia
254 - Quadtrine Hill, FB, Miami-FL

Huff is a top prospect, and would be the impact player they need in the secondary. Carpenter fills a need and is a great value at 22, ditto for Havner at 84. Aromashodu is a bit of a prospect, but has great speed, and can stretch the field, which makes him a great fit for Norv Turner's offense. The rest of the picks are there to provide depth where the team lacks it, though Daniels and Hill could find themselves in key roles from Day 1.

However, this won't happen. The Niners are set on picking Vernon Davis at #6 (unless the Jets or Packers take him at 4 or 5), which concerns me greatly. But the rest of their draft could shake out the way I would like it to.

Bet The Farm On These 5 Guys
You've probably gleaned some of this already, but here are five players going in the first round that I think will be outstanding pros:

• Michael Huff, DB, Texas
• AJ Hawk, LB, Ohio State
• Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State
• DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis
• Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa

Be Wary Of These 5 Guys
Again, some of this is obvious by now, but here are five players who may turn out to be decent pros, but will not live up to the hype:

• Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt
• Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland
• Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon
• Chad Jackson, WR, Florida
• Tye Hill, CB, Clemson

Alright! I'm Hooked! Now Where Can I Get More Coverage
The usual places, such as nfl.com and espn.com offer great coverage. For me, ESPN gets the nod over competitors such as The Sporting News and Sports Illustrated because of the contributions of Todd McShay from Scouts Inc. And they have Kiper. Gotta love the Kiper. For the sake of disclosure (and fairness to the latter two sites,) I will mention that I don't subscribe to their premium service, so I may be missing out on some of their better analysis.

Also of use are the complete, round by round draft order, courtesy of nfl.com, and the Draft Pick Value Chart, which teams use when trading up and down the board.

Of the non-corporate entities, Scott Wright's NFL Draft Countdown is by far my favorite site. I also consult Football's Future from time to time.

Wrapping It Up
This projects to be one of the deepest drafts in recent years, and could see a flurry of activity as teams move up and down the board to grab their preferred players. In most years, I think that trading up is preferable (best to hit a home run than gamble on two players with potential), but this year, some of the teams who trade back may end up with the best windfalls a few years down the road. Of course, that assumes that they know what they're doing when they scout players - which is why the 49ers should stand pat.

Look for the three round mock draft tomorrow.

SportsMatters Readers, Tell Me Your Stories

In talking about the fact that we were going to miss Game Three between the Oilers and Red Wings because of a Death Cab For Cutie/ Franz Ferdinand show, Avi and I began discussing the best sporting events we actually attended. I have done a post on my best moments in sports before, but I actually wasn't at any of those games. Hearing Avi's story--which I will let him share--I became intrigued by the idea of hearing actual fans talk about actual games they were at, and what it was like. Sac has done a good job of visually illustrating this point over at Battle of Alberta (why I link is beyond me. their site is the blogging equivalent of Fleetwood Mac's Rumours), and I would really love to hear other people's stories. I will start things off my naming my top three, and let others drop their moments in the comments section.

3) January 13, 1996: Curtis Joseph's first game as an Oiler. The game was back and forth, with Edmonton eventually winning 5-4, but what I remember most was the hope that it inspired. Finally, the banishment to the NHL cellar was nearing an end.

2) May 5, 1998: Boston Red Sox versus Texas Rangers. A thoroughly uneventful game (a loss by the Sox), but I got to see the Boston Red Sox play in Fenway park on Cinco De Mayo. The atmosphere was electric, even if the stadium itself scared the hell out of me. I remember trying to order a hot chocolate and a Fenway concession staffer looking at me like I was on crack. I also remember a bunch of rowdies with Sombreros getting kicked out of the stadium in like the 4th inning.

1) May 2, 1998: Game Six, Oilers versus Avalanche. The Oil had been down three-one in the series, and sent it to a game seven with a victory on this night. The Oil won 2-0, with a empty net goal (I believe by Mike Grier) sealing the deal. My girlfriend and I had fantastic seats, she was pregnant with my son, and the Oil were on their way to achieving a feat few in sports have accomplished. The crowd was insane. You hear it in the news, you see it on television, but nothing really captures how loud it is in that building during the playoffs. You really have to be there to understand. I lost my voice for about two days, and I have a vivid memory of hearing "TNT" by AC/DC right before a faceoff in the Oiler's zone with about 1-2 minutes to play. That "Oi! Oi! Oi!" is ingrained in my mind, man. "Song 2" by Blur was also huge then, so I got to do the "Woo Hoo" after the Oilers two goals (this also pre-dates Kernkraft 400's "Zombie Nation" being used after Oiler goals).

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Gauthier Strikes Again


Set your VCRs for Lindy Ruff's post-game conference tonight. For the second game in a row, Philadelphia Flyer Denis Gauthier has taken a cheap shot at a Buffalo Sabre.

In Game 2, Gauthier received a major penalty and game misconduct after a hit from behind on Thomas Vanek. A few minutes ago, in the second period of Game 3, he knocked J.P. Dumont out of the game with a stick to the abdomen. Dumont is coming off of abdominal surgery, which caused him to miss close to 30 games. Fortunately, he is back on the ice to start the third period.

Gauthier comes by his dirty work honestly, as he is the nephew of The Fabulous Rougeau Brothers, the reviled French Canadian heels of the 1980s. While The Rougeaus normally relied on Jimmy Hart's Megaphone to do their dirty work, Gauthier has been known for his hitting from behind. If tonight's hit was intentional, which his pattern of behavior leads you to believe it is, then Gauthier has added a new move to his bag of tricks.

I think Gauthier should have been suspended for his hit on Vanek. He wasn't, and less than 40 game minutes later, he has injured a key member of the Buffalo Sabres on what was either a careless or malicious play. I don't normally agree with Bob McKenzie, but it should be clear to everyone that Denis Gauthier should not be on the ice. Do the right thing, and make him sit for his transgressions.

Zombie Nation



Hey, Red Wings fans. Here's a song for you. You'll be hearing it quite a bit over the next week, I fear.

Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Favre Gets Off the Fence

In a surprising move, Brett Favre has actual news to announce.

The Packers Quarterback has informed team management that he will return for the 2006 season. Though he has yet to make his reasoning public, one can only hope that it's because he finally realized how ridiculous his hogging the limelight with "exclusive" interviews (welcome back, Tuesday Morning Quarterback!) and announcements that he was 5% closer to making up his mind* was. That, or he's still trying to impress Mary.

I'm sure that when he officially announces his return, Favre will provide us with platitudes such as "drive", "one more shot", and "the fans". But if he were to take a good look at his career, and the team he's going to be leading, he'd probably come up with something like "when you have an opportunity to end your career by throwing 25 interceptions and leading your team to a 4-12 record, you have to take advantage of it."

Welcome back, Brett.

*This may not have been an actual announcement.

8 Things We've Learned About The NHL Playoffs


With 2 games in the books for every opening round series, let's take a few minutes to review some things we've learned since the first puck dropped on Friday night.

1. Pat Quinn Will Be Coaching the Flyers Next Season.
This is just a hunch. I have a feeling that after the disaster in the making that is the Sabres series, Ken Hitchcock will be fired. The Flyers have had a notoriously short leash for their Head Coaches in recent years, and if Hitch can't at least coax a respectable performance out of a team that was built for playoff hockey, then I can't see why he'll be brought back. I'd like to see them make a series out of this, but right now, the Flyers look done.

On the other hand, maybe two game at home, a move to Olympic Silver Medalist Antero Nittymakki in Goal, and the possible return of Captain Keith Primeau will light a fire until the Flyers, and they'll come storming back.

2. The Dallas Stars Are Not As Good As We Thought.
Or I thought, at least. I only saw bits and pieces from Game 2, but from what I saw, Dallas is losing this series as much as Colorado is winning it. Sure, the franchise players for the Avs (Sakic and Blake) have stepped up, but there's no reason that the Stars shouldn't have won Game 2. Championship teams don't give up short-handed game-tying goals in the dying minutes of a game.

Also, while I would love nothing more than for Jose Theodore to step up and prove critics wrong - mostly because I defended the trade, he has not been outstanding in either game so far. While their offense has looked pretty good, I won't consider the Avs a sleeper in the West until I see a stronger performance from the team defensively.

3. Jarome Iginla Is Still A Big-Time Player
Though his Calgary Flames only earned a split of the first two games at home against Anaheim, Jarome played like a franchise player in both of them. He has 3 points in the first two games, and has been a force in the offensive zone. He may not have earned his $7 mil during the regular season, but at this rate, he'll earn his keep in the playoff round.

4. It's Not the Size of the Devil in the Fight, It's the Size of the Fight in the Devil
They may not have a key offensive player taller than 6 feet, but the Devils have plenty of guys who can put the puck in the net. Patrick Elias was in on all 6 goals in Game 1, and miniature penalty-killer extraordinaire John Madden netted a hat trick in Game 2. Add in undersized but skilled forwards Jamie Langenbrunner, Scott Gomez, and Brian Gionta, and these Devils have enough punch to compete with the best in the East.

5. Backup Goalies Are Not Necessarily Second Best.
Through the first two games of the Nashville-San Jose series, season-long backups Chris Mason and Vesa Toskala have acquitted themselves quite nicely. The Preds' Mason made several key saves in the Game 1 win, while the Sharks' Toskala scored a shutout in Game 2. They may not get the hype that the regular goalies do (Vokoun and Nabokov), but at this rate, they will soon.

6. The Champs Won't Go Quietly.
Ottawa's looked like the more talented team, but the Lightning took Game 2, and were poised to steal Game 1 until a 3rd Period collapse. Even if Wade Redden back in the lineup, this won't be an easy series for the Sens to take.

7. It's the Little Things That Kill.
Or for the Edmonton Oilers, the little mistakes that will haunt them if they get eliminated this round against Detroit. Of the 5 goals that they've given up through 2 games, 3 were very weak/fluky goals that they shouldn't have given up. In particular, the first Detroit goal in Game 2 occurred because Roloson was slow to block off the corner of the net with his skate, a fundamental move. He has a reputation for giving up soft goals, and while he's largely been spectacular through 2 games, that reputation isn't going away yet. If they keep giving up 1-2 soft ones a game, that could keep them from scoring the upset.

8. The Habs Aren't A Team of Destiny...Yet.
Avi may believe, but I don't. I'm holding off on passing judgment until Montreal:

• Wins a game where the opposing goalie (for the full 60 minutes) isn't 15 pounds lighter and dehydrated, due to the flu.

• Can demonstrate in back-to-back games that they can hold on to 3+ goal leads.

• Shows a little more discipline and stays out of the penalty box (though much of that was because the refs called everything in Raleigh last night.)

With that, enjoy the third games tonight.

Take Back The Night For Nerds

This angers me greatly, and not just because I have been known to visit a Denny's late at night with my laptop (I even read a collection of Allan Bloom essays in a Denny's one night, so take that, Poindexter!). I know I'll sound like my Nana, but what in the hell is the world coming to?

Flyers Rattle Sabres In Buffalo


As predicted, the Eastern Conference match up between the Buffalo Sabres and the Philadelphia Flyers has turned nasty. In game one, Brian Campbell may have started an all out war when he laid this beauty on the Flyer's R.J. Umberger. The heat was turned up several notches in game two when the Sabres jumped out to a 5-0 lead after one frame and Philly decided to turn back the clock to the days of the Broad Street Bullies. Denis Gauthier earned himself a game misconduct, and likely another suspension, after hammering Thomas Vanek from behind into the boards. Were it not for the timely head-tuck-shoulder-roll maneuver performed by Vanek at the time of the hit, he would likely have been leaving the HSBC Arena on a stretcher. Later in the game Flyer's goalie Robert Esche appeared to lose his mind as he decided to rush the Sabre's players bench, drop his gloves and attempt to take on both Toni Lydman and Derek Roy simultaneously. There was no obvious reason for Esche's snapping (other than getting lit up for five in the first period), but the Buffalo fans' mocking chant of "U-S-A" (referring to Esche's selection to the US Olympic team over Buffalo's minder, Ryan Miller) may have had something to do with it.

As much drama as there was on the ice, it was the two teams' head coaches who managed to save the best for last. In the post game press conference Sabre's coach Lindy Ruff called out the Flyers by claiming that they "acted like idiots". In response to this Ken Hitchcock threw out the "don't judge me" defense and claimed that he had witnessed some of Ruff's teams acting the same way. Which, by the way, sounds like an admission of guilt rather than a denial of how his team acted. The crowning moment of the whole thing was when Hitchcock, while exiting the conference room, threw out this tasty quote:
Tell Lindy to fuck off, to mind his own fucking business.

I laughed for a solid minute after seeing it on a TSN highlight.

In my estimation, this has been the most entertaining series to watch in these playoffs, and while I hope nobody on either side of this war gets hurt, I do hope that the intensity of the series continues. I would honestly be surprised if the Flyers were able to take even one game in this series, and it would be a testament to Hitchcock's coaching if he could pull his team back together for a victory. Right now Philly looks like a team that has lost its cool and the next couple of games could get chippy as hell. However, I would suspect that even the smallest indiscretion will draw a whistle from the refs for the remainder of the games between these two teams.

Monday, April 24, 2006

Spit, Don't Swallow

And thus, a star is born. On Saturday, in a MLS game between D.C. United and the Red Bulls (see explanation for names, here), Alecko Eskandarian performed a post-goal celebration worthy of Chad Johnson. After scoring the first of his two goals against Red Bull, the D.C. United player ran over to the bench, accepted a can of Red Bull, drank a sip, then spit it out on the pitch. A glorious performance that has assuredly garnered the MLS more coverage in a weekend than it has in the...um...hmmm...2...7...19...however-long-it's-been-around years of its exsistence.

Video is here, via DCenters via Off Wing Opinion via MLS.net.

He Lined Him Up, He Sized Him Up, He Laid Him Out


Anyone else feeling giddy about watching the Sabres and Flyers game today? I certainly am. My prediction for the series was that it was going to be a Slap Shot-like slugfest. As Abboud showed us yesterday, with the (insert Pierre Maguire's voice here) "MONSTER HIT" by Brian Campbell on R.J. Umberger, we are getting just that. Apparently, Campbell's mom is afraid for her son. She shouldn't be. I'm sure he'll get some attention, but the hit was totally clean. It is unlikely that he will be take a cheapshot, especially since Todd Bertuzzi has already been eliminated from the playoffs.

Game time is 5 p.m. MST, on TSN.

And by the way, if someone could tell me the name of the guy who does the play-by-play for the Sabres, it would be greatly appreciated. He isn't the guy in the clip Abboud linked to, which is unfortunate, because I am sure he would have been flipping out. I really want to hear his audio of that hit.

***Immediate Update*** I found him. Rick Jeanneret. Awesome. They actually have some of his "classic calls" available. Now I just need to find some audio of the Campbell hit.

Sunday, April 23, 2006

Brian Campbell: Monster Defenseman

It's all over the web - Deadspin, for one, had a story earlier, but in case you missed the game, or haven't seen it yet, check out Buffalo Sabres Defenseman Brian Campbell laying out Philadelphia's R.J. Umberger with one of the cleanest, yet sickest hits you will ever see.



The most remarkable part of this is that according to Campbell's nhl.com bio, he checks in at 6 feet tall, and 191 pounds. Needless to say, he's just about the last person you would expect to come up with a hit like this.

The other remarkable thing? Umberger says he wants to play in Game 2, and would have gone back on the ice in Game 1 if the Flyers had allowed him to. I understand it's the playoffs and all, but are we sure that R.J. only suffered a bit of short-term memory loss? After all, this isn't your typical "upper-body injury".

Saturday, April 22, 2006

The Scarlet Letter

But the object that most drew my attention to the mysterious package was a certain affair of fine red cloth, much worn and faded, There were traces about it of gold embroidery, which, however, was greatly frayed and defaced, so that none, or very little, of the glitter was left. It had been wrought, as was easy to perceive, with wonderful skill of needlework; and the stitch (as I am assured by ladies conversant with such mysteries) gives evidence of a now forgotten art, not to be discovered even by the process of picking out the threads. This rag of scarlet cloth--for time, and wear, and a sacrilegious moth had reduced it to little other than a rag--on careful examination, assumed the shape of a letter.

It was the capital letter C. By an accurate measurement, each limb proved to be precisely three inches and a quarter in length. It had been intended, there could be no doubt, as an ornamental article of dress; but how it was to be worn, or what rank, honour, and dignity, in by-past times, were signified by it, was a riddle which (so evanescent are the fashions of the world in these particulars) I saw little hope of solving. And yet it strangely interested me. My eyes fastened themselves upon the old scarlet letter, and would not be turned aside. Certainly there was some deep meaning in it most worthy of interpretation, and which, as it were, streamed forth from the mystic symbol, subtly communicating itself to my sensibilities, but evading the analysis of my mind.

When thus perplexed--and cogitating, among other hypotheses, whether the letter might not have been one of those decorations which the white men used to contrive in order to take the eyes of Indians--I happened to place it on my breast. It seemed to me--the reader may smile, but must not doubt my word--it seemed to me, then, that I experienced a sensation not altogether physical, yet almost so, as of burning heat, and as if the letter were not of red cloth, but red-hot iron. I shuddered, and involuntarily let it fall upon the floor.
-Nathaniel Hawthorne*



Thus endeth the prologue to our tale; it is therefrom that I must continue. Over the past three years, the City of Edmonton—the City of Champions—has seen a rapid increase in the amount of Calgary Flames paraphernalia being worn by individuals on the street, hung in home windows, and attached to the rear of automobiles. This alarming transition has come with little resistance from the citizens of our fair city; in fact, many Edmontonians have become willing participants in this treacherous exercise. It is one thing when people outside of this province, including the national media, act as if Calgary is the second coming of Shangri-La. But it takes on a whole new level of shamefulness when Edmonton’s own sons and daughters forget their civic pride and responsibility and begin whoring themselves out to that Babylon in the south, rather than treating it with the scorn and hatred deserving of the enemy.
"The great whore that sitteth upon many oil fields: with whom the kings of the earth have committed fornication, and the inhabitants of the province have been made drunk with the wine of her fornication." (Rev. 17:1-2)

Before I go any further, let me be clear in what I find so egregious, because there are in fact not one, but two things that I find quite revolting:

1) The prominent display of Calgary Flames paraphernalia in the city of Edmonton, particularly the large quantity of Calgary Flames car flags on display;

2) So-called Edmonton Oilers fans that have switched, and may switch, their allegiances to the Flames once the Oilers are no longer in the playoffs.

There assuredly are people young and old living in Edmonton who either grew up in Calgary, or in another city, town, village or farm in southern Alberta. In fact, there must be thousands of them, as Edmonton is currently (and has been historically) the hub of Alberta’s cultural, educational, athletic and governmental scenes. Admittedly, those vigorously pursuing the base activity of commerce remain in Calgary, but those edified souls seeking virtue, wisdom and enlightenment long ago abandoned hope of receiving it in Cowtown, and made the short pilgrimage up Highway 2 to the Gateway To The North.

So it should come as no surprise to anyone that indeed there are fans of the Calgary Flames living in the City of Champions. It is a fair and reasonable consequence of such a diverse and cosmopolitan city. But some may further argue that these Flames fans should have the right to express their sports fanaticism in the public square, and this is where I differ. For despite being an open-minded man living in a tolerant city, I must draw a line in the sand when it comes to the rules of being a fan. And let me be clear again: it is not so much the matter of these people cheering for the Flames, but a) their sudden and suspicious appearance when their team is finally doing well, and b) the fact that their cheering goes unchallenged. I can probably count on one hand the number of Calgary Flames jerseys I saw in Edmonton from 1974-2003. As for flags on cars, I don’t remember seeing a single one. This not only indicates the intrinsic bandwagon nature of Flames fans (not surprising considering their biggest yearly event celebrates Stetsons, cattle and shit), but the sheer suppressive will that Edmontonians had over such expressions. What has become so irritating is that not only have the fair-weather Flames fans finally come out to play, but that we as Edmontonians, in a weakened state of mercy and kindness, have ceded them the fucking field.

No truer manifestation of this exists than during the Flames aborted Stanley Cup run of 2003. The Oilers failed to make the playoffs that year (for only the sixth time in its twenty-five year history), while Calgary was making its first appearance after seven straight years of missing out. Riding on the back of goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff (the Flames had been an abysmal 29-36-13-4 in 2002, and weren’t doing much better until they traded for Kiprusoff and he rolled of a 24-10-4 run to end the 2003 season), the Flames went all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, eventually losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning in seven games. Along the way, out of some misplaced nationalism that was better suited to Don Cherry or Carolyn Parrish than it was to Edmontonians, Oilers fans began cheering for the Flames because they were “the only Canadian team” still left in the playoffs. Signs and flags popped up everywhere, and even Edmonton’s sporting goods stores were selling out of Flames merchandise. Never mind that Tampa Bay actually had more Canadian players on their roster than the Flames did, that this type of jingoism paralleled the creation of the “Freedom Fry,” or that it was the sporting equivalent of Red Sox fans cheering for the Yankees, a sorrowfully large group of Edmontonians abandoned their integrity for the quick promise of Red Mile titties.

We are now in the Stanley Cup playoff run of 2005/2006, with both the Oilers and the Flames making the show after a lockout year. Calgary has again piggybacked their way to success, and currently are the 3rd ranked team in the Western Conference. The Oilers finished a disappointing 8th , and face the daunting challenge of upsetting the NHL’s number one point-getter, the Detroit Red Wings. Again this spring, there is a large amount of visible Flames merchandise within the city of Edmonton. Thankfully, there is an even greater amount of visible Oilers merchandise, including the Oilers car flags. It appears that Edmontonians may finally be fighting back. One story is already making the rounds, taking on a legendary status. There are unconfirmed reports that a popular bar in Edmonton, known simply as The Black Dog, refused entry last evening to two gentlemen wearing Flames jerseys. Whether it was out of sporting pride or sound business acumen (the Oilers lost in overtime last night, while the Flames won) makes no difference, as the underlying sentiment was assuredly that a brawl would have occurred had the two men been allowed to enter. This is a positive sign. Edmontonians must stand up for their hockey team and their city, and force back the scavengers from the south. For example, when you come across someone wearing Flames merchandise, see if you can determine a manufacturing date. You will assuredly see that the product was likely made, and therefore only purchased, in the past couple of years. In fact, the price tag will probably still be on the product, as the greedy and utilitarian minded Calgarian is planning on returning it once their team regresses to its historical mean. I suggest ripping it off, leaving them with no other choice but to keep the Darren McCarty jersey they purchased this afternoon.

As for the distasteful level of sports bigamy that occurred two years ago, it too must be thwarted. Already this year, I have had one individual—a so-called “lover” of the Oilers—tell me that they would be cheering for the Flames if the Oilers got knocked out. I did not spit in her face, as I wanted to do, but I did call her out. I do not know how we can implement it, but I do have a solution to this problem. I would like to advocate the creation of a Sporting Inquisition, whose sole responsibility would be to weed out the sporting heretics in this city. While I would never recommend something so inhumane as the death penalty, I would suggest that those convicted by the Sporting Inquisition be publicly vilified and forced to wear a giant flaming “C” on their clothing, in recognition of the shame they have brought upon themselves and their city through their sporting adultery. As for who shall be in control of the Sporting Inquisition, who shall be named as Grand Inquisitor, I can think of only one man. A man whose loyalty to the Oilers and the City of Edmonton has never once been questioned. A man whose ethics, virtue and integrity are beyond reproach. Only one man can do this job, and his name is Joey Moss.

“Long live the Oilers, or go down with the Flames! Long live the Oilers, or go down with the Flames! Long live the Oilers, or go down with the Flames!”


*The only thing changed in the Hawthorne quote is the letter "C" from the letter "A." It's like the guy wrote it for this very moment in sporting history!

The NBA Playoff Preview

While most of the ado on the site has been over the NHL playoffs that started last night, some of us are also excited about the NBA playoffs, which start today.

Okay, I'm excited about the playoffs. I think that there are a lot of intriguing matchups, most of them out West. The East looks pretty straightforward, but if nothing else, guys like D-Wade and LeBron will be entertaining to watch. I could see all of the Western matchups going either way, which excites me greatly.

So with that in mind, here's a quick preview of the first round matchups.


Eastern Conference

(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (8) Milwaukee Bucks
Detroit is gunning for their third straight appearance in the finals, while Milwaukee is probably just looking to put in a respectable showing. Detroit's weakness yet again this year is its bench, but that won't matter in this series. They have the best starting five in the game, and they will roll over a game, but overmatched Bucks squad.

Prediction: Pistons in 4

(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) Chicago Bulls
The Heat came within a couple of minutes of the NBA Finals last year, and this past summer blew up the team, and rebuild with Shaq, D-Wade, and a bunch of chuckers (Walker and Williams). The Baby Bulls are well-coached, and have the ability to steal a game, but don't match up to the Heat. They don't have anyone who can stop Shaq, and D-Wade is a difficult matchup for even the best defenders in the league. Some of these games could be fun, though.

Prediction: Heat in 5

(3) New Jersey Nets vs. (6) Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have enough talent to compete, but the lingering drama of the Artest incident, plus his holdout this year, seems to have succeeded in killing the club's morale. The Nets aren't a contender, in fact I can't take a team that has 40-year old Clifford Robinson in its rotation seriously, but they do have Jason Kidd, and he's the difference in this series. That, and I think that Vince Carter is less of a liability to disappear than Peja Stojakovic is. The Nets roll, and Larry Legend gets ready to blow up the Pacers and rebuild in the off-season.

Prediction: Nets in 5

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Washington Wizards
You could frame this as a matchup of LeBron vs Gilbert Arenas, and it wouldn't be too far from truth. If you treat this series as such, it's clear who's going to advance. Cavs win, setting up a second round matchup with the Pistons that will basically be a recreation of the Celtics/Bulls playoff series from 1986.

Prediction: Cavs in 6

Western Conference

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Sacramento Kings
It's time to get crazy. The Spurs have logged a lot of extra games between the playoff runs and international tournaments. On top of that, their best player (Duncan) is nursing a foot injury, and their key bench acquisitions (Van Exel and Finley) dropped off significantly. And let's not forget that the Kings have Ron Artest, who can neutralize Manu Ginobli. So what are we left with? A veteran, but inconsistent bench, Tony Parker, and Rasho Nesterovic/Nazr Mohammed at the 5.

The Kings have Brad Miller, who should post double-doubles every time out against Rasho or Nazr, enough power forwards to play a game of hack-a-Duncan - he's not a good Free Throw shooter, remember, a playoff tested Point Guard (Bibby), and enough guys who can score from the wing (Artest, Wells, Martin, Garcia).

But can they beat the Spurs 4 times out of 7? I say they can.

Prediction: Kings in 7

(2) Phoenix Suns vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
Can Kobe Bryant single-handedly take out the Suns? He may have to post 4-5 40 point games to do it; the scary thing is, it's entirely probable that he will. The Suns are built more for playoff basketball this year than they were last year, but without Amare Stoudamire, it will be tough for them to last more than a round or two. I think this will be a good series, but the Lakers will pull the upset. While the Suns took 3 out of 4 from LA this year, that 20 point LA blowout earlier this month is weighing heavily on my mind.

Prediction: Lakers in 7

(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers finally put it all together this year, and not only made the playoffs, but backed into home-court advantage in Round 1 after a loss to Memphis earlier this week. Denver is dangerous, or more specifically, Carmelo Anthony is dangerous, but LA has Quinton Ross at the 3, and he will give Carmelo fits all series. On the flip side, Denver has an ailing Kenyon Martin to defend Clippers star Elton Brand. I think that will be the difference.

Prediction: Clippers in 6

(4) Dallas Mavericks vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies
The Mavs just missed out on the top overall seed, but as a consolation, they get to feast on the Grizzlies. They have a strong rotation, led by Disco Dirk and Jason Terry. I think the Grizz will be more game than people think, but in the end, there won't be enough Pau Gasol for them to move on.

Prediction: Mavs in 6

These results would create some intriguing matchups for Round 2 - the consummate team (Pistons) vs the one man army (LeBron/Cleveland), two teams notorious for underachieving (Mavs vs. Kings), and the Battle of Los Angeles (Clips vs. Lakers). Oh, and a dull Heat/Nets matchup that will be over in 4 or 5. I have to admit that I have no idea who would make the finals out of this, but since I think Detroit is due for a fall, and I can't bring myself to pick the Lakers, I will go with the somewhat unexpected final of the Miami Heat against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Settle in, enjoy, and go Celtics go! Oh wait...

Friday, April 21, 2006

The CBC: Your Tax Dollars At Work

The video cut out on the WIngs first goal. Then the audio goes out. Then they lose the penalty clock. Then they CUT OUT OF AN OVERTIME GAME BETWEEN EDMONTON AND DETROIT--IN EDMONTON--AND GO INTO THE FLAMES/DUCKS GAME!!! FOR A GOOD 3 MINUTES!!!!


***The original title for this post was much more profane. Something that rhymed with "puck" and "shoe" started things off. I have changed it since then, after I calmed down a bit. I do it all for the kids, you know. Even a day later, I am still shaking my head. Having talked to my father, sister, uncle, nana and grandad about it, at least I know I am not alone. And Abboud's story about the bar in Halifax makes me laugh. I was at a bar in Edmonton when Detroit scored their first goal, and the feed cut out, and people were freaking. I've never seen someone scramble for a remote as fast as that bartender did. Thankfully, the feed came back on, and she wasn't lynched.

Alberta Baseball Confederacy, Open Thread: Day 20


Andy and his wonderful collages are off today, so instead you get a pic of fantasy superstar Mark Buehrle, who will probably toss a shutout tonight, ruining my shot at a 4-0 week in the process.

Let's just hope that I have Joe Buck-like powers.

Blue Thursday


As a big fan of the entry draft in every sport, I would be remiss in not commenting on the NHL Draft Lottery that took place yesterday. There was not much drama, as the last place St. Louis Blues won, meaning that the lottery order will not change at all. The Blues will be followed at the top of the order by the Pittsburgh Penguins - who pick in the Top 5 for the fifth straight year, the Chicago Black Hawks, the Washington Capitals, and the Boston Bruins.

The first overall pick is a boon for the St. Louis club that saw it's fan support drop precipitously this season as underwent a rebuilding period on the ice, and a transition period in the front office. If they're smart, they'll use this opportunity to draft Erik Johnson out of the US National Team Development Program, who projects to be just the type of franchise defenseman that they need to replace the one that they traded away in the most recent off-season.

While Johnson is emerging more and more as the favorite to go first, there are still proponents of American wunderkind Phil Kessel, and Gritty Canadian Jonathan Toews. Kessel was seen as being a lock for the top pick a year ago, but his struggles at the World Juniors coupled with the strong performances of Johnson and Toews have shifted the race considerably. I won't get into the next tier of players, though a couple of them could leapfrog ahead of Toews or Kessel depending on a given team's preference, but it is worth noting that, like in every other recent draft, there is a Staal who figures to go near the top.

Normally, I advocate taking the Best Player Available in the NHL draft, but here's a quick primer on what I think each of the teams at the top should do:

St. Louis
Don't even entertain trade offers, just pick Erik Johnson. Franchise defenseman are harder to find than forwards who can score, so trading back makes no sense.

Pittsburgh
Trade the pick, for the following reasons:

• The best players in this draft are all (playmaking) Centers, which they already have two of (Crosby and Malkin) to build around. This is a case where the Pens need to shop around and see if they can fill a need for a scoring winger or a defenseman who can play on their top pairing.

• They're running out of time to make things work in Pittsburgh. Bringing in someone who can contribute right away on the top line will get them a lot closer to respectability, and will help their efforts for a new arena - wherever it will be built.

Chicago
Add the top player left on their board. They have a great group of defensive prospects, but lack an impact scorer in their system. They'll have a chance to add one this year.

Washington
Whichever Center is left on the board who will best compliment Alexander Ovechkin. It's that simple.

Boston
Best player available, which will be a forward. They're looking good in goal with Hannu Toivunen, and have good defenseman as well. A Center to play second fiddle to Patrice Bergeron would be a great addition to the club.

It happens to work out that most of the teams drafting at the top will fill a need in this Center-rich draft. While this is not seen as a deep draft at all, fans of the teams picking at the top should have something to look forward to come June. Given that most of these teams have been bottom-feeders for some time, it's long overdue.

**UPDATE**
Two draft-related thoughts which I should post before I forget them:

• Does anyone else worry that the new rule of Europeans going back into the draft after 2 years (as with Jr. A players) will lead to the best Euros basically picking and choosing which team they want to go to. It seems to be accepted that Euros will slide down the board, and less will be selected overall because of this rule, but I could see them acting the way that Scott Boras clients do in baseball, holding out to go to the right team and thus getting drafted much later than they should. Not that I would begrudge them, I would do the same thing in their shoes.

• Given that Ottawa needs to free up cap space to resign Chara and Redden long term, and to likely add a premium goalie to replace Hasek as well, does anyone else think that a trade of Martin Havlat to Pitt for the #2 pick make perfect sense for both teams? Havlat will price himself off the Senators when he hits the unrestricted market soon, so shipping him out now in return for either Phil Kessel or Jonathan Toews helps the Sens reload. Meanwhile, Havlat would be the perfect compliment to either Crosby or Malkin. Whoever the new Pens GM is can have that tidbit for free.